Why are Governments Trying To Stop Corona virus?

vanity | Today | Self

[DouglasKC]

There seems to be quite a few opinions about COVID 19, or the corona virus. Some say it's not a threat...that it's no worse than the flu or the common cold. Others think that it may be the end of civilization as we know it.

What is the truth? Let's look at one truth first.

The truth is that governments all over the world are taking it very seriously.

As President Trump has pointed out he banned travel to and from the affected regions of China long before anybody thought it was prudent. Early on he also instituted mass quarantines of some who had arrived from Wuhan as well as from an infected cruise ship.

When the virus first started in Wuhan the Chinese government took even more drastic measures such as mass quarantines, blockading of entire cities, shutting down virtually all places of employment and schools. They have basically banned public gatherings.

In fact EVERY place where it has spread and taken hold governments of all political stripes and forms have instituted similar measures. South Korea, Japan, Italy, Singapore, France, the United States and every other country has instituted aggressive tracing of the virus, quarantines and other measures designed to slow, limit or stop the spread.

It's clear that NO government wants this to be loose in their populations. Why?

The reason why is simple. It's stated in almost every government pronouncement about this virus including the United States. It's contained in this sentence:

"For 80% of those who get this virus their symptoms will be mild and won't require hospitalization."

What's the problem? The problem is that this means that in 20% of the cases the symptoms will NOT be mild and WILL require some type of medical intervention. THIS is what governments are worried about. Why?

First of all it's widely acknowledged that THIS virus spreads as easily as the flu or the common cold. MOST scientists say that it spread MORE rapidly than either of these. But let's say it ONLY spreads as rapidly as the common flu.

In an average year 5% to 20% of the population of the United States will get the flu. (Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics). The US population is about 370,000,000. Let's go with a very low flu season at 5% infected:

370 million X 5% = 18,500,000 infected in a year from the common flu.

So IF nothing is done AND this thing ONLY infects the same amount as an average flu year there will be 18,500,000 infected by the corona virus.

Remember that 20% WILL require some type of medical intervention...i.e. severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or other medical intervention.

18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.

Let's say that the experts are wrong and only 10% will require hospitalization.

18,500,000 x 10% = 1,850,000 requiring hospitalization.

So our scenario is this: IF nothing is done and it spreads at the very low end of the spread of influenza then we are talking about 18.5 million infected. And IF the experts are wrong and only 10% require hospitalization then that is 1.8 million people needing to be hospitalized basically so they don't die.

Well what's the problem? The problem is this: In the United States there are ONLY 924,107 TOTAL STAFFED BEDS IN ALL US HOSPITALS (Source: aha.org https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals).

Do you see the problem? These beds are not currently all open and waiting. They are filled by patients who have every other type of illness or injury requiring a hospital stay. We do NOT have enough capacity at our hospitals to even accommodate a best case scenario for the spread of this virus.

Get it? If this is NOT stopped or slowed or limited then it will essentially break the health care systems of every country it infects.

Governments have THREE choices:

1. Spend trillions of dollars to build enough capacity to handle all of the patients, year in and year out, or Corona virus.
2. Do not treat severe corona virus cases. Let them die.
3. A combination of the above.

None of these are attractive to any government. These are all non-starters.

IF governments do nothing to stop its spread they face a lot of bad choices. This is EXACTLY why every government of the face of the earth is taking draconian measures to contain this virus even if they don't say so.

[DouglasKC]

A dear mongering post full of inaccuracies is more like it. Your statistical analysis is way off, and offers compounding error as you proceed through it.

What do you disagree with? And do you have an alternate theory why EVERY government in the world is taking this very seriously?

[arthurus]

I suspect China has other reasons.

[DouglasKC]

It will be lower than that. The only hospitalizations would be those who are in critical condition

I hope so. Every thing I've seen says that at least 15% of those who get it end up as needing hospitalization.

[TexasTransplant]

*** “ needing hospitalization “ ***

Hospitals are where you can acquire the the bad stuff ... (I am currently dating a Nurse and we have discussed this very subject in depth, she is very committed and I am not so much)
I am worried that she thinks that protocol makes her invulnerable...
Our relationship may not survive

[Nifster]

And you are talking numbers from China. Their hospitals are not like ours

[DouglasKC]

And you are talking numbers from China. Their hospitals are not like ours

It doesn't matter. Everything I read about this says that 15% to 20% of cases end up with severe symptoms...can't breathe or severe pneumonia (maybe 15%) and critical (organ failure, sepsis etc maybe 5%). If it continues unchecked any hospital and any system will be overrun with the sick and dying...even though 80% have mild symptoms.

[Nifster]

You are making assumptions that do not necessarily exist. Age and health before illness make a huge difference. Having a severe form even pneumonia does not guarantee hospitalization

Quit being dramatic

[DouglasKC]

You are making assumptions that do not necessarily exist. Age and health before illness make a huge difference. Having a severe form even pneumonia does not guarantee hospitalization Quit being dramatic

Age or health does not matter. They will STILL go to the hospital and especially if they are older and in poor health. There's just no way to get around it. EVEN if only 5% are hospitalized and it spreads "like the flu" it will STILL overwhelm our hospital system.

[Nifster]

You first sentence just so convoluted

Yes age and prior health do matter. One is less likely to get sick or may only get slightly ill. Compromised immune system will be most likely to get severely ill. This is true for other illnesses as well

I don’t know what you’re reading but it has made you irrational.

[DouglasKC]

You first sentence just so convoluted Yes age and prior health do matter. One is less likely to get sick or may only get slightly ill. Compromised immune system will be most likely to get severely ill. This is true for other illnesses as well

Age or health does't matter to the 15% or 20% who will go to the hospital. If a 30 year old is in the that percentage it's the same as a 70 year old. They BOTH will go to the hospital. It doesn't matter if that 20% is all 90 year olds. They will go to the hospital. It doesn't matter if they are all 30 year olds. If they're in that percentage they're SICK enough to be in the hospital.

[Tellurian]

I think much of the fear is of the virus mutating.

It seems like the original "genome" wreaked great havoc in Wuhan and then Iran (mutual WMD experiments?). It seems the virus could be different in many other countries - not as lethal (except in Italy). If immunity to the Iran & Wuhan "genome" can be had by contracting a version circulating in another country where the death toll is only akin to the flu (like Korea), then that might not be the end of the world.

[Rockingham]

Novel epidemic illness pathogens tend to become less virulent as the epidemic progresses and they become remote from their original vector. The COVID-19 virus may follow that pattern, and the facts suggest that is already happening. If so, the overall disease burden may prove to be relatively light.

[Nifster]

You don’t get it

A 30 yr old otherwise healthy individual is unlikely to get sick at all

The 70 yr old even if in best health is more likely to contract illness. If they’ve had the pneumonia shot they will do better. If not they are more likely to develop pneumonia which weakens an older body and causes other complications

I’m done now. You can continue to read whatever nonsense you want

[DouglasKC]

A 30 yr old otherwise healthy individual is unlikely to get sick at all The 70 yr old even if in best health is more likely to contract illness. If they’ve had the pneumonia shot they will do better. If not they are more likely to develop pneumonia which weakens an older body and causes other complications

My point was that there are going to be 15% to 20% that when infected by corona WILL be hospitalized with severe or critical symptoms. Yes, it will affect older people but no matter WHEN IT SPREADS WIDELY it SEEMS to be 15% or 20% no matter what. So it's irrelevant to talk about it in terms of young or old.

And there is no vaccine for viral pneumonia...only for pneumonia caused by certain bacteria so a pneumonia shot won't do much good unless one also happens to contract bacterial pneumonia.

[Ponyexpress9790]

Yep and that’s a big “If”, I’m thinking about soccer mom’s panic, one kid at school or a teacher, then schools shut down and clinics and hospitals over flowing because of sniffles. Quote from Men in Black, a person is calm and rational, but people are panicky, unstable, and scared. My two cents.

[DouglasKC]

Btt

[DouglasKC]

Bump...