Posted on 03/01/2020 11:02:59 AM PST by DouglasKC
There seems to be quite a few opinions about COVID 19, or the corona virus. Some say it's not a threat...that it's no worse than the flu or the common cold. Others think that it may be the end of civilization as we know it.
What is the truth? Let's look at one truth first.
The truth is that governments all over the world are taking it very seriously.
As President Trump has pointed out he banned travel to and from the affected regions of China long before anybody thought it was prudent. Early on he also instituted mass quarantines of some who had arrived from Wuhan as well as from an infected cruise ship.
When the virus first started in Wuhan the Chinese government took even more drastic measures such as mass quarantines, blockading of entire cities, shutting down virtually all places of employment and schools. They have basically banned public gatherings.
In fact EVERY place where it has spread and taken hold governments of all political stripes and forms have instituted similar measures. South Korea, Japan, Italy, Singapore, France, the United States and every other country has instituted aggressive tracing of the virus, quarantines and other measures designed to slow, limit or stop the spread.
It's clear that NO government wants this to be loose in their populations. Why?
The reason why is simple. It's stated in almost every government pronouncement about this virus including the United States. It's contained in this sentence:
"For 80% of those who get this virus their symptoms will be mild and won't require hospitalization."
What's the problem? The problem is that this means that in 20% of the cases the symptoms will NOT be mild and WILL require some type of medical intervention. THIS is what governments are worried about. Why?
First of all it's widely acknowledged that THIS virus spreads as easily as the flu or the common cold. MOST scientists say that it spread MORE rapidly than either of these. But let's say it ONLY spreads as rapidly as the common flu.
In an average year 5% to 20% of the population of the United States will get the flu. (Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics). The US population is about 370,000,000. Let's go with a very low flu season at 5% infected:
370 million X 5% = 18,500,000 infected in a year from the common flu.
So IF nothing is done AND this thing ONLY infects the same amount as an average flu year there will be 18,500,000 infected by the corona virus.
Remember that 20% WILL require some type of medical intervention...i.e. severe symptoms requiring hospitalization or other medical intervention.
18,500,000 X 20% = 3,700,000 requiring hospitalization.
Let's say that the experts are wrong and only 10% will require hospitalization.
18,500,000 x 10% = 1,850,000 requiring hospitalization.
So our scenario is this: IF nothing is done and it spreads at the very low end of the spread of influenza then we are talking about 18.5 million infected. And IF the experts are wrong and only 10% require hospitalization then that is 1.8 million people needing to be hospitalized basically so they don't die.
Well what's the problem? The problem is this: In the United States there are ONLY 924,107 TOTAL STAFFED BEDS IN ALL US HOSPITALS (Source: aha.org https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals).
Do you see the problem? These beds are not currently all open and waiting. They are filled by patients who have every other type of illness or injury requiring a hospital stay. We do NOT have enough capacity at our hospitals to even accommodate a best case scenario for the spread of this virus.
Get it? If this is NOT stopped or slowed or limited then it will essentially break the health care systems of every country it infects.
Governments have THREE choices:
1. Spend trillions of dollars to build enough capacity to handle all of the patients, year in and year out, or Corona virus.
2. Do not treat severe corona virus cases. Let them die.
3. A combination of the above.
None of these are attractive to any government. These are all non-starters.
IF governments do nothing to stop its spread they face a lot of bad choices. This is EXACTLY why every government of the face of the earth is taking draconian measures to contain this virus even if they don't say so.
Nicely done.
Those 1.8 million who need to be hospitalized so they don’t die won’t be able to use the 924 107 hospital beds, because they will need ICU beds, which surveys consistently show are about 15% of all hospital beds, or about 138 000 total ICU beds.
However. Some of these are CCU beds, or post-surgery beds.
Also, not all of them are equipped to provide airborne isolation. In my hospital, 2/40 ICU beds are so equipped, and based on my experience, this ratio is normal.
Never mind the staffing issue. Patients will need 1:1, no rotation of staff, one slip and the nurse or tech goes into quarantine x 14 days.
IF we try to maintain the standard of care for one or two patients with even 1000 patients, the system will crash.
THAT’S why this is such a big issue.
I know they are. I was purposely using very low numbers and a best case scenario in order to show why governments are worried. The actual numbers are what really frightens them.
Do you? No? Then why are you demanding they do? Politicians are following your lead.
Seems like a circular reference. “I am cuz they are and they is cuz I am.”
Exactly..i didn't even touch upon those factors you mentioned and of those 968,000 beds only 40% or so are actually available at any one time...at least in 2012 where i got the stat from.
But what if the mutation increased transmission instead of decreased.
In general, the more transmissible a virus is, the less deadly it is. Covid-19 is one of those that occupies a sweet spot: it has a low enough mortality rate to be highly transmissible, but high enough mortality to cause millions of deaths in a susceptible population.
“Come back here in 2 weeks after results in and prove all the “dramabugs” wrong.”
It’s not on me to prove you wrong. You made the assertion the virus will be devastating. We’ll come back in 6 months and have a good laugh.
No they're not. Even before it was a blip on the radar of the public China was already into draconian measures to contain it. Even before it was a blip on the radar of the general public President Trump was banning flights and quarantining. And even in countries where they don't give a darn about their people they are taking at the exact same steps. ALL countries and all leaders are reacting the same way.
Crisis and government in love.
“1 death in the US so far.”
—
“Do you have an alternate reason why every government on the face of the earth including the United States government is taking this very seriously?”
—
Good question, but I expect you won’t get an answer.
Also, the there’s just been x deaths argument isn’t a very convincing one as it could just as easily been claimed when in Wuhan when this thing just started.
Just 10 days ago, there were only 3 confirmed cases in Italy. Today, there are 1,694 confirmed cases. Figure that rate of growth in percent. Yiii.
You got that right! They sure do know how to "fast track" a massive 2-floor "hospital complex:
No I did not say that...Geez don’t put words in mouth...
You are a denigrater. You used word dramabug...
I said come back and prove dramabugs wrong...
Since they are not testing, I think there will be a lot more cases in 2 weeks. PERIOD...
It will be lower than that. The only hospitalizations would be those who are in critical condition
It’s a communist country known for lying
The only thing I know for sure is right now we don’t know
What I said is what I meant. I trust zero numbers out of China and Iran
Right now we don’t have enough data from the others
IF that is what happens
A dear mongering post full of inaccuracies is more like it. Your statistical analysis is way off, and offers compounding error as you proceed through it.
Less worried about the government because Trump.
I’m worried about the people, we have an abundance of stupid people...
all desired by God, but stupid.
People need to take it seriously and they need to NOT panic either.
As a hospital based intensivist, I assure you this is completely inaccurate.
What you said is “No the death rate isn’t high compared to the flu”. What country’s reported death rate are you basing that comparison on?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.