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Asteroid Strike Simulation Ends With Expected Catastrophic Results
Hotair ^
| 05/07/2019
| Jazz Shaw
Posted on 05/07/2019 10:17:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
What would happen if we found out on very short notice that a sizable asteroid was incoming and projected to strike a major city? You might guess that it would be pretty bad news. And according to a simulation designed by NASA and run at a recent scientific conference, you’d probably be right. The fake asteroid crisis assumed that an objecting packing a thousand times as much punch as a nuclear bomb was splintered off of a larger body and wound up on a collision course with New York City. (USA Today)
In a NASA simulation of a fictional scenario, New York City was hit with an asteroid packing 1,000 times the destruction of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
The exercise, which was part of the “National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan” published by the White House, played out at the the 2019 Planetary Defense Conference in College Park, Maryland, last week. It was a worst-case scenario showing what would happen if a giant space rock crashed into Earth in 2027.
Paul Chodas, the NASA engineer who designed the exercise, told AFP the simulated asteroid and its terrifying outcome is “highly unlikely” but he wanted “the issues to be exposed and discussed.”
In the interest of propriety and sensitivity, we’ll skip past all the tasteless jokes about how having SMOD strike the Big Apple might not be entirely without an upside. The point is, could we do anything about it?
In their scenario, a much larger asteroid is heading toward Earth and is projected to strike North America. Spacecraft are deployed to deflect the asteroid onto a new path, but a 60-meter fragment of it splits off and heads toward New York City. What’s the plan at that point? They concluded that there was simply nothing they could do to save New Yorkers except to evacuate them.
Two problems with this analysis immediately leap to mind. The first is the question of how we’re deflecting the larger rock. I’ve seen countless shows on the Science Channel were scientists debate the subject and offer various strategies, but as far as I know, we still don’t have any spaceships ready to do this work. And even if we did, all the projections I’ve seen indicate that you need to catch the asteroid very early and start trying to deflect it many months, if not years in advance. It takes a tremendous amount of energy to change the trajectory of something that size.
But if we can’t deflect it and it’s heading for a major metropolitan area, how much notice will we have? Calculating exactly where a space rock will land is tricky business under the best of circumstances. We may not even have a rough idea until a couple of days before impact. Do you know how long it would take to evacuate all of New York City? The New York Times examined the question back in 2005 and found that there wasn’t even a plan on record for how to do it. Under the best of circumstances, they think they might be able to move roughly three million people out of the city if you gave them three days notice. Emptying the entire five boroughs is estimated to require at least eight days, and that’s only if everything keeps ticking along perfectly the entire time.
The normal human response to an imminent threat generally boils down to a decision between fight or flight. You can’t fight an asteroid. And if you’re stuck in New York City, you probably won’t be able to take flight, either. Sleep tight, New York.
TOPICS: Astronomy; Computers/Internet; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: alreadyposted; asteroid; astronomy; catastrophe; catastrophism; science; simulation
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To: SeekAndFind
I won't say that all computer simulations are worthless, but I think most of them are.
Let's say I'm writing a SW simulation of a tea kettle on a stove. I finish and run the simulation -- but my water never boils. Obviously I screwed up. So I re-write my simulation. I keep running, testing, and re-writing my simulation until I see that (according to my model) water in a tea kettle will boil when placed on a hot stove.
What has my simulation showed me? Absolutely nothing. I made sure that it showed me what I wanted it to show me. That's how I knew it was "successful".
Global Warming? Asteroid strikes? If the initial run shows a really happy outcome, then your simulation was badly written. So keep re-writing it until Global Warming or Asteroid Strikes show a catastrophic outcome. That's how you know your simulation is "good".
This is how we do science these days.
2
posted on
05/07/2019 10:24:09 AM PDT
by
ClearCase_guy
(If White Privilege is real, why did Elizabeth Warren lie about being an Indian?)
To: ClearCase_guy
I won't say that all computer simulations are worthless, but I think most of them are.
We find that almost all are perfect representations of real work physics. We run thousands a year, and run dozens of physical tests to confirm their results.
To: SeekAndFind
I bet if they evacuate NYC, they’d still collect tolls. Might even bump up the rate. Need the extra revenue for collision clean up and all that.
4
posted on
05/07/2019 10:27:04 AM PDT
by
fruser1
To: SeekAndFind
Nothing that a massive increase in federal funding couldn’t solve.
5
posted on
05/07/2019 10:30:48 AM PDT
by
billorites
(freepo ergo sum)
To: TexasGunLover
We run thousands a year, and run dozens of physical tests to confirm their results.
—
Interesting.
Is there a website that shows such confirmations?
6
posted on
05/07/2019 10:30:48 AM PDT
by
samtheman
(To steal an election, who do you collude with? Russians in Russia or Mexicans in California?)
To: SeekAndFind
Catastrophic? WTH? I thought NYC was destroyed. ☄💥👹🙀💩
7
posted on
05/07/2019 10:32:50 AM PDT
by
rktman
( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
To: SeekAndFind
If we address climate change I’m certain the asteroid would bypass earth.
8
posted on
05/07/2019 10:33:14 AM PDT
by
JZelle
To: SeekAndFind
Reminds me of the Jose Cuervo commercial that ran a few months ago with the couple drinking Cuervo and dancing as the asteroid comes in.
Caught in Manhattan as an asteroid screams in? Might as well get the best liquor you can and squeeze your honey till it all disappears.
To: TexasGunLover
How good a job do your simulations do on turbulence in a teacup?
Next weeks’s weather? Will I have 0.2” of rain on my house a week from Thursday?
That being said, they do work very well on some things, I couldn’t have gotten anywhere near as good a design on my microhotplates without them...
10
posted on
05/07/2019 10:35:00 AM PDT
by
null and void
(The press is always lying. When they aren't actively lying, they are actively concealing the truth.)
To: SeekAndFind
Getting millions out in a few days is pretty good work. Plus you’d have a huge effort sending in boats and planes. Probably divert the entire commercial air fleet.
But we may not see it coming and I doubt we can pinpoint the impact area.
Always bothers me to know these things aren’t that big, but a 180 foot rock can destroy a city. Something bigger would not be good.
11
posted on
05/07/2019 10:35:31 AM PDT
by
Williams
(Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
To: fruser1
what if it crashed into Atlantic off NY / NJ coasts. Tsunami? Odds are meteor would land in an ocean
12
posted on
05/07/2019 10:36:17 AM PDT
by
SMGFan
("God love ya! What am I talking about")
To: TexasGunLover
Well, not my field, so I may be totally off base. But if someone simulated a car engine (for example), there is solid science that allows reasonable prediction. And you can run physical tests to confirm the results predicted by the model. I consider this legitimate science.
But Global Warming and Asteroid Strikes involves a lot of guesswork and cannot be verified by physical tests. I don’t see much value in such sims.
13
posted on
05/07/2019 10:36:53 AM PDT
by
ClearCase_guy
(If White Privilege is real, why did Elizabeth Warren lie about being an Indian?)
To: ClearCase_guy
That is an awesome summary. I have been arguing the same points you made with the algore acolytes for years.
They don't seem to understand assumptions, multiple independent variables and expected outcome, just dogma.
14
posted on
05/07/2019 10:37:49 AM PDT
by
pfflier
To: SeekAndFind
They need to gather up a NASA team of oil riggers.
One from Die Hard, to lead.
Another who plays Batman, as second.
A aging rock star's daughter as love interest.
And a team of good Joes and funny guys for the rest.
15
posted on
05/07/2019 10:41:13 AM PDT
by
Alas Babylon!
(The media is after us. Trump's just in the way.)
To: ClearCase_guy
Simulations are a key part of designing and verifying electronics. In that realm, they work very well.
Let's just say there is an asteroid heading towards us.
Let's just say we have the capability to deflect it.
Let's just say that a piece 60 meters in diameter breaks off.
Let's just say that piece enters Earth's atmosphere without breaking up.
Nah, let's forget all that. Let's just say an asteroid 60 meters wide happens to enter Earth's atmosphere without breaking up.
NY city is about 300 square miles. Earth is about 200 million!
Even if the above happens, there is still only a 15 in 10 million chance it will hit NY city.
The things these idiots waste their time on.
17
posted on
05/07/2019 10:44:30 AM PDT
by
Henchster
(Free Republic - the BEST site on the web!)
To: SeekAndFind
"well skip past all the tasteless jokes about how having SMOD strike the Big Apple might not be entirely without an upside."What is interesting, to me, is why the Left refuses to consider that they are that hated. How many people would dance on NYC's grave, and why should this be so?
18
posted on
05/07/2019 10:44:51 AM PDT
by
jonascord
(First rule of the Dunning-Kruger Club is that you do not know you are in the Dunning-Kruger club.)
To: SeekAndFind
[ In a NASA simulation of a fictional scenario, New York City was hit with an asteroid packing 1,000 times the destruction of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima. ]
19
posted on
05/07/2019 10:45:26 AM PDT
by
GraceG
("If I post an AWESOME MEME, STEAL IT! JUST RE-POST IT IN TWO PLACES PLEASE")
To: fruser1
Except you pay tolls going INTO the city, not out.
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