Prediction 2019 (a little late, and a total freakin' vanity)

various | January 1st, 2019, Belated Happy New Year! | various

[SunkenCiv]

Pretty much any subject, stupid humor is fine, general stupidity not so much, and please no snarking, that's directed at you snarky SOBs.

Someone used to do a thread like this every year, but, alas, he got banned. The good news (for me, anyway) is I just noticed that a really big butthole (not the same FReeper) got banned for NeverTrumping back in 2016, and I hadn't missed the ******* at all.

That got me thinking, because the predictions thread guy also got booted for NeverTrumpism, if memory serves (not sure, I think I'd already been kicked out for something else, and no, I've been on the Trump Train throughout the 2016 campaign and to this day), but I miss his predictions threads.

1. The wall will be begun and nearly completed by the end of 2019.
2. Legal challenges to the construction of the wall will fail.
3. Impeachment will fail so hard, it will never even get started.
4. The shutdown will continue until a substantial part of the wall gets built, and perhaps thereafter.
5. President Trump's popularity will grow the more the wall is completed.
6. President Trump will refuse to send US troops or other aid to Venezuela, citing our border wall as being the priority.
7. In Venezuela, there will be a civil war between factions of the military, one of which will initially support Maduro, then remove his ass. Iran and Russia will continue to be involved in Venezuelan affairs.
8. President Trump will withdraw US forces from Afghanistan as well as Iraq/Syria.
9. A half dozen or more nations will announce the move of their embassies in Israel to Jerusalem.
10. The Philippines's president Duterte will make an official visit to the US, for a meeting with President Trump.
11. The witch hunt against Israeli PM Netanyahu will end well for him, leaving him in better political shape than before. The 2019 elections will go well for him.
12. The Three Amigos (Russia, Iran, and Turkey) will continue to operate as a sort of triumvirat regarding Syria and to some degree Iraq. Three and a Half Amigos will continue to be used to refer to (in order) Putin, the Shiite-head, Erdogan, and Assad.
13. The BJP will wind up forming the next gov't in India (2019 is an election year there as well), despite a scare from the phony-baloney Gandhi family (she was the daughter of Nehru, and picked up the Gandhi surname from her husband who was unrelated to Mohandas "Mahatma" Gandhi).
14. In France, Macron will NOT step down, and the Yellow Vest protests will continue and increase.
15. A couple of national leaders will die in unrelated, separate plane crashes.
16. Discovery of the wreckage of MH370 will be announced three or four more times during 2019 (the newest one right now is that the plane was hjiacked but crashed near Madagascar).
17. SpaceX will launch humans into space for the first time -- aboard a Falcon 9 -- and dock with the ISS. The Falcon Heavy will be launched two or three times during 2019. The "hopper" version of the SpaceX "Starship" will begin testing in the last third of 2019.
18. At least one of the candidates will be ineligible because of foreign birth; at least one more will be ineligible due to age; Demwits despise the Constitution, so no surprise there.
19. The price of crude will slide all the way through the summer, at least.
20. Despite further decreases in the cost of gasoline/crude oil, General Electric (airliner engines), General Motors, and Ford stock will continue their downward spirals.
21. Despite further decreases in the cost of gasoline/crude oil, electric vehicles will soon become much more commonly seen throughout most of the US.
22. Apple, Inc. will introduce its first A-chip based MacOS product(s?) and an updated iPhone SE, both of which will sell well. The new model AirPods will be intro'd, will do okay, leading to a large, reasonably priced aftermarket for the original model.
23. Meanwhile, Samsung's spectacular $2000 phone will fail.
24. A large number of mobile phones manufactured in China will drop off the face of the US market (because they're undifferentiated and/or they are junk).
25. Netflix will have a very good year, all patriotic Americans will not enjoy that.
26. YouTube's $40-a-month subscription service will end, not with a bang but a whimper.
27. Twitter's board will finally rid itself of Twitter's founder, in an attempt to repair its reputation. Fail.
28. Facebook will experience serious competition for the first time; in the EU, it will be investigated and tried for monopolistic practices and fake "fake news" charges.
29. Laz will hit it.
30. President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) -- Pelosi called it a "scam" -- will expire December 31, 2025, IOW, during the first term of the next President.
31. Bottled water and various other non-carbonated beverages have (mostly) not had bottle/can deposits; the Demagogic Party will start a well-orchestrated campaign (with help from their media shills) to put deposts on all beverage containers.
32. Absolutely NOTHING of significance will be found by the Oak Island treasure hunters.
33. RBG will not remain on the SCOTUS by the end of 2019.
34. The "leadership" in the Demagogic Party is in a vice between the leftist insurgents supported by Soros, and their own inability to get anything done.
35. Fragmentation of the Demagogic Party will continue along racial and gender lines.
36. The number of Demwit candidates for the 2020 presidential primary season will rise as high as 20. Looks high, looks low, don't know what the spread is. :^)
37. At this point, Perdogg would be bringing up professional and college sports predictions, but I couldn't possibly give less of a **** than I do.

[SunkenCiv]

"Snakes on a Spaceship" will be a big big hit. .

[Steve Van Doorn]

That is Elon Musk Trolling like with his car in space thing.

[PIF]

38. Apple will continue to ignore the PC gaming market (using inferior graphics cards and chips in its Mac line) despite the $40 billion per year that the industry generates.

[SunkenCiv]

Yeah, nothing would help the companies who share tiny slices of that $40 billion market more than having Apple go after their market share.

[SunkenCiv]

He's a master of social media, like President Trump is.

[SunkenCiv]

Related to #22, 23, and 24 (particular the last one) -- Xiaomi's Redmi line is going to eat a lot of its competitors' lunch.

[Califreak]

“The Philippines’s president Duterte will make an official visit to the US, for a meeting with President Trump.”

Oh how the salt will flow.

They should invite Mr. Putin and take out the whole Soros fam.

[Mr. Jeeves]

I'm not optimistic about SpaceX accomplishing anything significant this year.

I'm not optimistic that more than a small portion of the wall will get done this year.

I think RBG is already incapacitated - but her aides will keep voting for her until the scam is forcibly exposed.

The GOP only has to keep together two factions - the Democrats have at least a dozen that despise each other except for their shared dream of a socialist state. If Trump gets any help at all from GOP office-holders, I am optimistic he can divide them hopelessly by November, 2020.

[SunkenCiv]

Related to #16:

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet
Chris Goodfellow
March 18, 2014
https://www.wired.com/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

New Research Might Locate Flight MH370—And Solve One of the Greatest Aviation Mysteries of All Time
A new mathematical model narrows down the search area significantly.
[sez the plane “veered east toward India”, so I’m not optimistic. Time to watch “Krakatoa: East of Java” again]
By Sam Blum
Dec 7, 2018
https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/airlines/a25437988/mh370-christmas-island/

Data analysis could help locate the missing Malaysian MH370 plane
[that’s worked so well in the past]
by Emerging Technology from the arXiv
December 6, 2018
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612551/data-analysis-points-to-new-location-for-mh370-aircraft-that-vanished-in-mysterious/
https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/mh370-route.png?sw=600&cx=0&cy=0&cw=443&ch=679

Any model that relies on a dead or unconscious crew to execute a u-turn is probably not the right model. And a living crew wouldn’t fly in that direction, then turn back within a few minutes of the continent.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37820122

[SunkenCiv]

Even worse for the Demwits is, a good many of them are SINOs; additionally, there may be an independent candidate in 2020, just in time to siphon off their MOR base, which is fed up with their constant nonsense and doesn't hate Trump, but won't vote for the Republican "brand".

[SunkenCiv]

• regarding #13: Shut down madrasas across India: Shia Waqf ... fearing ISIS influence

[DoodleDawg]

Whole lot of wishful thinking in those predictions.

[SunkenCiv]

This is about the Laz thing, isn't it.

[DoodleDawg]

This is about the Laz thing, isn't it.

You did lose a lot of credibility by predicting that, yes.

[SunkenCiv]

Some slight editing:

1. The wall will be begun and nearly completed by the end of 2019.
2. Legal challenges to the construction of the wall will fail.
3. Impeachment will fail so hard, it will never even get started.
4. The shutdown will continue until a substantial part of the wall gets built, and perhaps thereafter.
5. President Trump's popularity will grow the more the wall is completed.
6. President Trump will refuse to send US troops or other aid to Venezuela, citing our border wall as being the priority.
7. In Venezuela, there will be a civil war between factions of the military, one of which will initially support Maduro, then remove his ass. Iran and Russia will continue to be involved in Venezuelan affairs.
8. President Trump will withdraw US forces from Afghanistan as well as Iraq/Syria.
9. A half dozen or more nations will announce the move of their embassies in Israel to Jerusalem.
10. The Philippines's president Duterte will make an official visit to the US, for a meeting with President Trump.
11. The witch hunt against Israeli PM Netanyahu will end well for him, leaving him in better political shape than before. The 2019 elections will go well for him.
12. The Three Amigos (Russia, Iran, and Turkey) will continue to operate as a sort of triumvirat regarding Syria and to some degree Iraq. Three and a Half Amigos will continue to be used to refer to (in order) Putin, the Shiite-head, Erdogan, and Assad.
13. The BJP will wind up forming the next gov't in India (2019 is an election year there as well), despite a scare from the phony-baloney Gandhi family (she was the daughter of Nehru, and picked up the Gandhi surname from her husband who was unrelated to Mohandas "Mahatma" Gandhi).
14. In France, Macron will NOT step down, and the Yellow Vest protests will continue and increase.
15. A couple of national leaders will die in unrelated, separate plane crashes.
16. Slam dunk! Discovery of the wreckage of MH370 will be announced three or four more times during 2019 (the newest one right now is that the plane was hjiacked but crashed near Madagascar).
17. Slam dunk! SpaceX will launch humans into space for the first time -- aboard a Falcon 9 -- and dock with the ISS. The Falcon Heavy will be launched two or three times during 2019. The "hopper" version of the SpaceX "Starship" will begin testing in the last third of 2019.
18. At least one of the candidates will be ineligible because of foreign birth; at least one more will be ineligible due to age; Demwits despise the Constitution, so no surprise there.
19. The price of crude will slide all the way through the summer, at least.
20. Despite further decreases in the cost of gasoline/crude oil, General Electric (airliner engines), General Motors, and Ford stock will continue their downward spirals.
21. Despite further decreases in the cost of gasoline/crude oil, electric vehicles will soon become much more commonly seen throughout most of the US.
22. Apple, Inc. will introduce its first A-chip based MacOS product(s?) and an updated iPhone SE, both of which will sell well. The new model AirPods will be intro'd, will do okay, leading to a large, reasonably priced aftermarket for the original model.
23. Slam dunk! Meanwhile, Samsung's spectacular $2000 phone will fail.
24. A large number of mobile phones manufactured in China will drop off the face of the US market (because they're undifferentiated and/or they are junk).
    • Related to #22, 23, and 24 (particularly the last one) -- Xiaomi's Redmi line is going to eat a lot of its competitors' lunch.
25. Netflix will have a very good year, all patriotic Americans will not enjoy that.
26. YouTube's $40-a-month subscription service will end, not with a bang but a whimper.
27. Twitter's board will finally rid itself of Twitter's founder, in an attempt to repair its reputation. Fail.
28. Facebook will experience serious competition for the first time; in the EU, it will be investigated and tried for monopolistic practices and fake "fake news" charges.
29. Laz will hit it.
30. President Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) -- Pelosi called it a "scam" -- will expire December 31, 2025, IOW, during the first term of the next President.
31. Bottled water and various other non-carbonated beverages have (mostly) not had bottle/can deposits; the Demagogic Party will start a well-orchestrated campaign (with help from their media shills) to put deposts on all beverage containers.
32. Slam dunk! Absolutely NOTHING of significance will be found by the Oak Island treasure hunters.
33. RBG will not remain on the SCOTUS by the end of 2019.
34. The "leadership" in the Demagogic Party is in a vice between the leftist insurgents supported by Soros, and their own inability to get anything done.
35. Fragmentation of the Demagogic Party will continue along racial and gender lines.
36. The number of Demwit candidates for the 2020 presidential primary season will rise as high as 20. Looks high, looks low, don't know what the spread is. :^)
37. At this point, Perdogg would be bringing up professional and college sports predictions, but I couldn't possibly give less of a **** than I do.

[SunkenCiv]

regarding #22 -- "Apple, Inc. will introduce its first A-chip based MacOS product(s?) and an updated iPhone SE, both of which will sell well. The new model AirPods will be intro'd, will do okay, leading to a large, reasonably priced aftermarket for the original model." -- from MacDailyNews presents live notes from Apple’s Q119 Conference Call with analysts:

• iPhone upgrades for Q119 were less than Apple expected to to currency headwinds, lack of subsidies
• iPhone upgrade cycle has extended, there’s no doubt about that
• Strong U.S. dollar, subsidies, etc. will affect iPhone is Q219 as well
• Installed base was 1.3 billion as of Jan 2018 and has grown to 1.4 billion by end of December 2018
• iPhone decline: iPhone subsidies are becoming increasingly less common
• iPhone decline: Strength of U.S. dollar has made Apple products more expensive in other parts of the world
• Outside of iPhone, Apple’s business grew 19% YOY
• iPhone replacement cycle is lengthening
• Apple’s iPhone channel inventory typically increases in Q1 and decreases in Q2 and that will be the case this year, too
• iPhone XR is most popular, followed by iPhone XS Max, and then iPhone XS
• Apple continues to face currency headwinds due to strong U.S. dollar
• Half of iPad buyers in Q119 were new to iPad
• Installed base of iPad reached a new all-time high
• Half of Mac buyers in Q119 were new to Mac
• Strong response to new MacBook Air and Mac mini
• 9% increase in Mac revenue YOY
• 62.9% gross margin for services
• 34.3% gross margin for products
• Apple has "exciting announcements coming later this year"
• iPad revenue up 17%, highest growth rate in nearly 6 years
• Mac revenue up 9% in Q119. Best Mac quarterly revenue ever

With a strong dollar, it becomes even cheaper to build fuller-featured, more powerful, lower-priced models, making "Apple margins" feasible, both in the US and in emerging markets.

[SunkenCiv]

Pertaining to #17 — SpaceX will launch humans into space for the first time — aboard a Falcon 9 — and dock with the ISS. The Falcon Heavy will be launched two or three times during 2019. The “hopper” version of the SpaceX “Starship” will begin testing in the last third of 2019.

After government re-opened, SpaceX sought two Falcon Heavy permits
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01/spacex-may-launch-the-next-falcon-heavy-rocket-in-less-than-two-months/

SpaceX Reveals Potential Launch Date For Its Next Falcon Heavy Rocket
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2019/01/29/spacex-reveals-potential-launch-date-for-its-next-falcon-heavy-rocket/

Rocket Report: A huge step back for Stratolaunch, a toppling Starship
“We need to work seriously in order to remain in the market.”
Eric Berger - Jan 25, 2019 12:00 pm UTC
http://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01/rocket-report-a-huge-step-back-for-stratolaunch-a-toppling-starship/

[PIF]

I think you misunderstood - If AAPL were to use the same graphics cards as many PCs and even make a dedicated game box, them developers would be able to expand their market to OS X adding to the developers revenue.

I did not mean to say AAPL would produce games - that’s not their way

[Larry Lucido]

31.Bottled water and various other non-carbonated beverages have (mostly) not had bottle/can deposits; the Demagogic Party will start a well-orchestrated campaign (with help from their media shills) to put deposts on all beverage containers.

[SunkenCiv]

Nor did I say AAPL would produce games, I said if they built dedicated gaming hardware, they'd absorb the gaming hardware market profits. The fact is, that isn't a big enough market to be worth their time and trouble, even though dedicated gamers (all of whom will be in adult diapers by age 50 and lose fine motor control in their hands) spend a lot of money to hit that bleeding edge they think they need, and keep spending it as their overclocked CPUs and liquid-cooled twin GPUs get cooked. Each one is also 100 percent sure they know the best possible hardware combo, and none of them agree 100 percent on what that is. Yeah, I'd love to build a single platform to sell into that tiny market. Oh, and most gamers are under age 25, and have Xbox, PS3/4/soon to be 5, etc.

The professional graphics folks who tend to choose and use Macs have been souping up their overpriced cylindrical Mac Pros with outboard graphics cards (over Thunderbolt) for some time now -- and if Apple doesn't address that issue in future platforms, they could be losing that slice of toney customers. That's when they'll really be in trouble, because Apple doesn't care about "the rest of us", and hasn't for quite a while now. If I were some kind of class warrior, I'd care about that. I regard this conundrum analogously to the way I regard lotto tickets -- the only way to reliably make money on lotto is to sell the tickets to other people. Looks like Apple is up $8.41 today (earnings came out after the close) and here I sit on the sidelines, waiting to pounce.

Apple's first foray into an A-chip based MacOS platform should be a new Mac Mini model, and cost under $500. It won't, of course, but if they built it and charged just that much, they'd destroy the NUC market in about one year, the same way the iPad destroyed the netbooks (what used to be netbooks are now "2 in 1" tablets with detachable keyboards). Since their services are supposed to be an important growth area, getting more people into the ecosystem is a must. In the pre-iPhone days, the iPod and iTunes brought literally in millions of younger customers, all of them now in their 30s. Tim Cook just spoke again regarding Apple's future plans for original media content, but until Apple TV is integrated with the Mac Mini line, I don't see that happening -- unless Apple plans to app its way into Roku and other smart TV platforms.

Stick computers are really a cool idea for portable CPUs, assuming one has one of those $20 Logitech keyboards with the trackpad on the right end (I have one for the 2 in 1 attached to the upstairs TV; eventually my dessicated corpse will be discovered, cause of death, atrophy from never getting out of bed), but they are (ahem) of uneven build quality (even assuming what one buys isn't a counterfeit from some nameless knockoff plant somewhere in the Chinese interior), and at their best are non-upgradeable, giving them unavoidable and unassailable planned obsolescence. Even my 2 in 1 is like that, which is why it was under $100 -- works, but OS upgrades can't be installed. Stick CPUs are generally NOT under $100. In five or six years, my 2 in 1 will be a Linux box, and a few years after that, it'll be cut up into guitar picks. It runs Windows 10 right now, as my "new" Asus laptop does (I think that's five years old now).

Of late, AMD has been kicking Intel's ass, and years ago when it acquired Nvidia's main competitor and Intel was (at the time) suing Nvidia again, hmm, can't remember tha name, everything was a little murky, but we wound up with Intel integrated graphics in most CPUs. Apple doesn't worry about