Trump win?
Here are 5 ways he could:
Posted on 11/07/2016 8:54:38 AM PST by Bender2
Trump win?
Here are 5 ways he could:
think?
Okay, talk amongst yourselves... 
and get back to me--
I don’t see a win in Colorado. Just my take. NH and NV look very shaky too. I think Trump ultimately wins Nevada. NH is a tough state to poll but there is a brand new WMUR poll that has Clinton way out in front. We’ll see. I definitely don’t see a win in Colorado.
The third map is the same as my current prediction. That being said, the last week of internal data in the IBD poll suggests that a regional landslide may be developing for Trump in the midwest, too.
Your first map matches my prediction assuming Trump wins.
The NH poll is pure moonshine. EVERY other poll has it within the margin of error and this poll today comes out showing Clinton up 14?
Pure garbage
“WMUR poll that has Clinton way out in front”
You should read the internals on this poll... the last figure given to NH’s residents with degrees...35%
The number of degreed in this poll....61%
That’s a 26% bias against Trump!
That’s why this poll is an outlier.
Thanks for the explanation. I’ll go check out the internals now.
ABC’s latest poll:
Donald Trump leads by at least 10% in Election Day voting in:
CO, FL, NV, NH, NC and OH.
Map 1 is the most likely.
“Thanks for the explanation”
Your welcome!
Bill Mitchell explained this a few weeks ago. The voters were getting very wise to the polls over sampling Dem vs REP. So they next undersampled Independants and beyond that, started to oversample voters with college degrees, because Trump has been killing it with Indies and non college voters.
This poll, like most, is trying to discourage Trump voters into not voting on ED. That’s part of the plan; the other part is to have the MSM “trump up” the early voting numbers for Clinton, which the DNC put enormous amounts of money and resources into.
This poll, in going so far in it’s over sampling, is a clear sign that the Clinton Camp is scared top death.
Any one of those paths works.
I suspect that you may see an unusually high number of states changing color this year. It’s remarkable how many are in play.
But more blue states seem to be in play than red ones, which has to be encouraging for Trump.
Map 1 doesn't have Michigan going to Trump. Keep in mind that both Sanders and Trump won the primaries there. I'd think any state where that happened has a lot of folks who aren't eager to stay with the status quo.
Thank you Angels27.
You’re map shows where we have to get out the vote. All the states you have in play are “margin of error” states. Plus also Florida and North Carolina. (I think Iowa and Ohio are outside the MOE.)
We show up, we win. It’s as simple as that.
Michigan isn't going to Trump.
Keep in mind that both Sanders and Trump won the primaries there.
Trump and Sanders won in Oregon, Washington, Maine and Vermont, too. That doesn't mean Trump is going to take any of those states.
If Trump is able to flip Michigan, that cinches the election.
I’m assuming Trump wins FL, OH, IA and NC.
Give Trump Michigan and he can lose in Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia and *still* take the presidency.
This is also true if Trump wins Pennsylvania or Virginia but I am becoming less hopeful of either one.
In most years, I would agree with you. But Michigan epitomizes how the Obama administration has left behind certain communities with no jobs, no hope and only broke, corrupt Democrat governments. They have *got* to be starved for change. If there is a high turnout of Yuppers, I can see Trump winning.
I’ll go with 279, +IA, OH, FL, NV, CO, NH, ME-02
Here we go.
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