Posted on 08/16/2016 8:12:32 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
For those of you worried about the polls, I have one word---RELAX. First of all this is August so the polls can say anything they want plus many people are still not focused on the upcoming election. For that reason I automatically take whatever the polls say and conservatively deduct 3 points from Hillary and give 3 points to Trump.
In addition there is what is called the Shy Voter Effect. Those many voters shy of being ID'd as Trump supporters. I also call this the Reverse Bradley. Again, another 3 from Hillary and 3 to Trump.
Therefore if a poll shows Hillary leading by 10, I deduct 6 from Hillary and reward 6 to Trump with the net result that he leads by 2.
As final confirmation that the polls are complete BS, I give you the current NBC poll that shows that only 17% of all voters think Trump has the temperament to be president. And if you believe that then perhaps you should panic. Not over the what the polls say but over your own extreme gullibility.
The MSM is propping up Hillary now, but even the MSM privately admit the issues with the Clinton Foundation and now increasingly her health could become a gigantic drag on her campaign by middle to late September if she can't increase her days per week rally schedule (Donald Trump is doing rallies on five to six days per week now). With modern social media and millions of camera-equipped cellphones out there, they can't hide her medical issues like how FDR hid most of his medical issues during his Presidency.
I still don’t believe many people are undecided as of today.
Certainly not repubs & RATS and certainly not all independents.
It would take something earth-shattering (more wiki-leaks? or too many debate errors ?) for most to change their minds.
Yes?
Then ASSUME THE POLLS ARE CORRECT.
Assume that Big Media is successfully propagandizing against him ... then get off your butt and work on persuading people to vote for him.
Conservative “fat cats” should form a top notch polling organization and by following rigorous statistical techniques provide a standard by which other polls could be measured.
The 15% Democrat edge in the sample could reflect the margin of Democrats over Republicans in the area sampled.
I don’t worry about the polls.
Democrat voter fraud is what concerns me most.
That’s exactly right.
I want the Curtis Lemay method of beating Hillary and her minions: assume that you will have to win 100-0 in order to win at all, and attack attack attack attack attack attack attack attack attack attack attack until they lose unconditionally or are vanquished unconditionally.
+1
Yes, I agree.
Saw a poll today saying Hillary was up by 14 points in VIRGINIA.
SO .. WHO LIVES IN VIRGINIA .. (I’m guessing) ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THAT POPULATION IS DEMOCRAT BECAUSE MOST OF THE PEOPLE WORK IN D.C.
SO WHAT DOES THIS PROVE .. THE LEFT WILL TRY TO USE THIS 14 POINT MARGIN TO DECLARE THE ELECTION IS “OVER” ..!!!
DON’T FALL FOR IT.
Well .. I’d take Trump any day over ANY DEMOCRAT.
My guess is the Obamacare numbers will be “delayed” until after the election.
Ok, so if the polls are right we still have hope.
Hillary could have a swallowing-her-tongue seizure during the debates.
Hillary could be indicted.
Hillary will finally be forced to admit the truth about Benghazi.
A Hillary email will be released of her and Huma in bed.
Media will suddenly change gears and support Trump.
Juanita Broderick will expose a secret tape of Bill Clinton raping her.
If all else fails, there is a prayer thread.
Hillary is peaking
Yeah, I remember that. I bet a friend $100 on that election. He was absolutely confident Dukakis would win and acting like he was going to take candy from a sucker. When Dukakis lost, my friend dropped out of sight. When I finally called him up to collect, his wife answered and said he suffered a heart attack and couldn't leave home. I never collected on that bet.
The polls for many an election cycle have been pretty accurate especially as you noted
The final month or so
The only thing might throw this off is Trump base enthusiasm which prolly is not weighed enough in polling data
And there is no question media driven polls are used to dampen anti democrat motivation
Proof of emails discussing that are out there
“Hillary is peaking”
Hillary peaked about 20-30 years ago....oh, you mean in this campaign.
Just watching Fox business numbers in many states are coming out already open enrollment is Nov1 many insurance companies are required to notify consumers of increases 60-90 days before they occur!!! These increases are coming out already some deductibles have reached the 12,000 dollar range this IS insanity!!! People WILL NOT pay HUGE premiums then STILL NOT be able to use insurance until 12,000 DEDUCTABLE is reached!!! Aetna pulled out today of ALL but four states, they had to report this do to requirements of state commissioners OBAMMIE CARE is DONE of course WE ALL KNEW this would be the case!!! The VERY SAD thing is the people that had cancer and such when this monstrosity was created have suffered or passed away due to being dragged away from their caregivers and treatment plans they were on!!! So many MORE people who had healthcare NOW HAVE NONE so the few who had NO healthcare could have healthcare that WE would pay for, WE pay for these losers and can’t afford to protect our own families I HATE these BASTARDS!!!
Frankly, I think the whole “Trump gaffe” thing is largely overblown baloney. Trump says something true but which is outside the media-defined circle of “acceptable” discourse, the MSM and Dems and GOP establishment hyperventilate, and the media try to work up a fake tizzy about it.
They won’t. The “conservative” fat cats are in the tank for Hillary too because she doesn’t threaten the open pipeline of cheap Mexican labour.
Mostly because the MSM can "hide" her faults now. What happens once the electioneering season becomes much more intense from Labor Day on? Especially if the Clinton campaign can't increase her weekly rally schedule? If Hillary is forced to only do campaign rallies four out of seven days a week like her current schedule, even the MSM will seriously start to ask questions about her own health.
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