Posted on 04/03/2016 8:31:57 PM PDT by cba123
OK let me try this again.
I tried to post this once, but the thread was pulled, apparently I improperly credited the story. Here it is again:
You will find this story referenced at the link above.
The link above is just a website. However it (apparently) links within that website, to coverage on Fox 2 of a poll from this weekend of a poll, in Wisconsin, which shows the following percentages:
(this is from the linked videoclip, not the story itself)
Trump 41%
Cruz 32%
Kasich 19%
Please note, there is included at the link (included in the story) an apparent videoclip from Fox, covering this poll.
This poll was from this weekend, so it is very recent.
Just want to provide this datapoint, to contrast with the countless (Cruz is leading, Trump is doomed) sort of posts which have been floating around here for several days.
(Excerpt) Read more at endingthefed.com ...
One day closer to Ted’s elimination.
Some Trump supporters in Twitter generate stuff like this and it is very confusing,
Two weeks ago there was a tweet running around to the effect that Harrison Ford had endorsed Trump. Had a pretty convincing photo that was well done with Ford holding a Trump sign if I recall. It made me actually Google Ford to see if accurate. It wasn’t.
I wouldn’t bet that all that sort of stuff is done by Trump supporters. The GOPe are some nasty folks.
Steelfish, I don’t know what the deal with this poll is; it is probably some kind of mistake. But I am afraid that you may not have a clear understanding of how the primary process in this race is progressing. Cruz can’t lose very many more delegates and still have a mathematical chance of getting a majority before the convention. Even if Trump dropped out tomorrow, Kasich would easily take enough delegates in the remaining contests to keep Cruz from getting a majority before the convention.
If you listen to what Carl Rove, Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell and the rest have all been saying there is no way they will allow Cruz to get the nomination at the convention. If that were not enough we have the recent debacle in Tennessee that confirms this as well. It doesn’t make a bit of difference what the repercussions will be. Neither Cruz or Trump will be the nominee if the decision is made at the convention.
Cruz is young, he is a constitutional conservative, he can out argue anyone, and he is brilliant. The place he could actually make the biggest difference in however is the Supreme Court and not the presidency.
A truce should be called and Trump should state clearly that if he wins the presidency that he will nominate Cruz to take Scalia’s place on the Supreme Court. Then the two campaigns should work together to make sure that the nomination is not stolen by the establishment.
It has been a fun and amusing fight, but it is time to call this counterproductive bludgeoning to a halt. We can’t afford to have the party bosses pick the nominee and continue their path to ruin even if the stooge they picks somehow beats Hillary. And we certainly can’t afford to have Hillary win. We also need to have both houses of congress remain in Republican hands if we want the next president to be able to reverse course.
So I beg of you, lets get realistic about how this is going to end up and start working together to try and assure that this country goes in the right direction.
Well, since Chuck Norris is actually a lock to vote for Trump or Cruz the concept of him endorsing not that far fetched. Harrison Ford voting GOP? Uh no,
Emerson has been pretty reliable... I think they were the only poll that predicted Iowa for Cruz late in the race.
I hope they're wrong this time.
Trump has to have a big push tomorrow to have a chance.
The vast American middle class is finally waking up.
One can only get schlonged for so many decades before pain becomes too much to bear. 94 million Americans have no jobs!
Dump the career politicians like Bush, Cruz, Kasich and go with someone not in the pockets of ultra rich donors.
Same Emerson poll has:
Sanders 51%
Clinton 43%
No wonder she left the state early
The only problem is that the trail stops there. I can't find the video ANYWHERE else. I suppose it could have been scrubbed if it isn't fake. If it IS fake, it's a good one.
Don't get too excited. The last Emerson poll only showed Cruz with a 1 point lead, so even this poll is showing Cruz expanding his lead. And Emerson underestimated Cruz's support in Texas by 14 points, in Iowa by 5 points, etc. So I think a 7-10 point Cruz lead is probably about right, and consistent with the other polls we have seen.
So the new Emerson poll shows Cruz expanding his lead on Trump from the last Emerson poll that was taken. It shows Cruz ahead by 5 points statewide (up from 1 point in the last poll), and show him leading in 5 of the 8 congressional districts. IF that holds, Cruz should get about 33 of the 42 delegates on Tuesday.
_________________________________
Using your prediction, the delegate results would be:
Trump = 745
Cruz = 496
This still has Trump kicking Cruz’s A$$ with 249 more delegates! Can’t wait to hear you spin this as a win for Mr. Haney.
Sorry for the typo, So I beg of you, lets get realistic about how this is going to end up and start working together to try and ensure that this country goes in the right direction.
That’s way too small of a sample size to be reliable on the CD level.
30-36 delegates for the winner in WI is reasonable though.
7 and 8 should be Trumps’ best districts.
2 is Milwaukee and could favor Trump or Kasich
3 is the other likely tossup.
Cruz should be ahead in 4 and 5 and with a five-point lead ahead in 1 and 6.
Actually, Emerson was off in Iowa by 5 points, and was off in Texas by 14 points. In both cases, they underestimated the vote for Cruz.
It keeps Cruz relevant for another two weeks. Then he’ll be like Kasich. Who would have thought?
I fully expect Cruz to win WI but 10 pts is really laying it on thick.
Cruz holds a 3 point lead among women 35% to 32%, with Kasich at 28%.
With all the hammering Trump has taken, this is very encouraging...
Interestingly enough, the survey had Trump ahead in CD3. Cruz ahead in everything other than CD2 and 4, which were tossups.
That doesn’t jive with the Marquette Survey that had CD 8 (NW Wisconsin) as Trump’s best district in the state or the Optimus data that had Trump with a strong showing in 7.
All probably because of the MOE for such a small sub-sample. The Optimus numbers, however were big enough to be statistically significant.
Yes indeed. Open primary. Trump will crush the GOPe in their own backyard. That will be fun to watch.
Trump trailing with women by 3%, but overall by 5%?
Assuming equal numbers of men/women, that means Trump is losing men by 7%.
No. I don't buy that.
Well if we add another 18 from ND and another 6 from CO so far this weekend, that would give Cruz another 24, for somewhere between 50-60 delegates for the week, giving him somewhere around 520. And Cruz should pick up more from CO next weekend.
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