QUESTION: New York Crime Stats

self | 6/22/2013 | LS

[LS]

It is widely argued that NYC has low levels of crime (and anti-gun nuts say "due to gun laws"). My question: does anyone have ANY evidence (please, not just guesses or opinions) that NYC has jimmied with or tampered with its crime statistics; is underreporting gun violence; or is otherwise falsifying the data to try to support this argument?

[Gaffer]

Years ago (over 10 maybe 20 years, IIRC) Atlanta was cited by the FBI as having ‘fudged’ on their murder crime rates. In effect what they did was illegal and intentional.

It involved in re-classifying murders (or deaths) into other lesser status crimes.

This was back when we had a government that was not so totally corrupt and subversive as now.

[Alberta's Child]

I don't have anything off-hand right now, but there was a great article in a New York City magazine or newspaper on this subject a few years ago. I have to give credit where credit was due, since it was a left-leaning publication (either the Village Voice or New Yorker, but pulled no punches in exposing the outright misinformation from the city's police bureaucracy.

The author of the article was motivated to write it after he witnessed the aftermath of a homicide in the subway but then spent weeks following up on it with the police department without ever finding any evidence that it was ever reported and documented in their records.

I hope this is helpful. I will try to track that article down when I have time.

[Gen.Blather]

“Years ago (over 10 maybe 20 years, IIRC) Atlanta was cited by the FBI as having ‘fudged’ on their murder crime rates. In effect what they did was illegal and intentional.It involved in re-classifying murders (or deaths) into other lesser status crimes.”

Mayor Marion Barry did the same for DC. In one year it went from the most dangerous city in America to one of the safest. Murders became suicides or accidents. Apparently the statistics are all self-reported.

[IMR 4350]

Remember it well, only it wasn't just Atlanta, it was all major cities and the crime rate suddenly dropped beginning on January 1, 1993.

It was PROOF electing Clinton was a great and wonderful thing and his policies were responsible for the drop in crime.

The idiots falsifying the reports simply forgot Clinton wasn't president on January 1, 1993.

[Gay State Conservative]

I've seen stats (can't recall their source) that suggest that on a per capita basis NYC has a noticeably lower murder rate (the only stats I've seen were for murder rate) than just about any other large of medium sized US city.Any claims that Doomberg & Pals might make that it's because of strict gun laws is silly.Vermont,a neighboring state,has very lax guns laws (surprisingly enough).Virginia,not that far down the road,does as well.One thing I've repeatedly heard is that, starting with Giuliani,the NYPD has had a policy of aggressively addressing small crimes which,it's said,somehow lessens serious crimes.I'm not a criminologist so I'm not sure how that might work,but...

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Statistics are only as accurate as the statistician .
It all depends on what you are looking for, and what information you want to substantiate .

Even in the Trayvon Martin / George Zimmerman assault location , school security were encouraged by the local police to minimize school crime statistics .

[Jim Noble]

I don’t know the answer to your question, but I will share an impression.

I lived in Brooklyn or Manhattan until 1980, and I have visited frequently since.

The changes in the first two years of the Giuliani administration were real, and they were enormous. There was some washover into the early 2000s, because a lot of bad guys were still Upstate, as we say.

It’s getting worse again, and pretty quickly - but NYC is nothing like the nearly all-black cities of the midwest and southeast, crime wise, and probably will never be. Brooklyn is gentrifying in places I never would have thought it could happen.

YMMV, of course.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

The ‘FBI Uniform Crime Report (for each year)’ is the standard by which police crime statistics are collated and arrainged by state-by-state .
I am unsure if the statistics are broken down by metropolitan or urban areas .

[Labyrinthos]

My understanding is that stats are as accurate as they can be and if anything, they overstate the homicide rate to include people who have died from homicides that occurred in prior years (i.e., deaths previously classified in prior years as accidental are reclassified as homicides; assault and DUI victims who die from their injuries in later years. The crime stats are also consistent with my personal observations over the years.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Go to the FBI website and you can build a statistical table.And yes , you can identify a single metroplitan area , with multiple policing agencies.

The website : http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/

[9YearLurker]

NYC had crazy crime stats years ago—when it was a dangerous city.

It now truly is very same in most areas, with crime stats that reflect as much.

IMO it is tough policing and gentrification that have made the city safer, not gun laws.

[9YearLurker]

*safe*

[Rome2000]

As soon as Pataki signed the death penalty in 1995 after Cuomo vetoed it 12 years in a row, the homicide rate dropped in half.

Mario Cuomo has the blood of 15,000 murdered New Yorkers on his hands.

Giuliani doubled the size of the cops and told them to take down the homicidal maniacs standing around that where obviously packing (you don't have to be a rocket scientist to tell).

The commies complained, but the streets were safer.

Now with King anal soda pop in Gracie Mansion and Cuoumo II in Albany, you would have to be not very bright to live in NYC unless you have a Death Wish.

But former Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, who vetoed 12 death penalty bills before Mr. Pataki defeated him last year, said of the new law: "This is a step back in what should be a march constantly toward a higher level of civility and intelligence. The argument that the death penalty will deter and reduce crimes has been abandoned almost everywhere."

New York Crime Rates 1960 - 2011

New York Law Enforcement Agency Uniform Crime Reports 1980 to 2005

New York Crime Rates 1960 - 2011

						Forcible		Aggravated		Larceny-	Vehicle
Year	Population	Index	Violent	Property	Murder	Rape	Robbery	assault	Burglary	Theft	Theft
1965	18,073,000	554,050	58,802	495,248	836	2,320	28,182	27,464	183,443	253,353	58,452
1966	18,258,000	609,465	62,561	546,904	882	2,439	30,098	29,142	196,127	286,409	64,368
1967	18,336,000	692,528	75,124	617,404	996	2,665	40,202	31,261	219,157	314,472	83,775
1968	18,113,000	829,453	98,515	730,938	1,185	2,527	59,857	34,946	250,918	375,143	104,877
1969	18,321,000	837,210	105,870	731,340	1,324	2,902	64,754	36,890	248,477	367,463	115,400
1970	18,190,740	904,314	124,613	779,701	1,444	2,875	81,149	39,145	267,474	386,553	125,674
1971	18,391,000	935,022	145,048	789,974	1,823	3,225	97,682	42,318	273,704	388,612	127,658
1972	18,366,000	804,605	138,542	666,063	2,026	4,199	86,391	45,926	239,886	321,096	105,081
1973	18,265,000	814,349	135,468	678,881	2,040	4,852	80,795	47,781	246,246	320,307	112,328
1974	18,111,000	911,703	145,427	766,276	1,919	5,240	86,814	51,454	271,824	390,357	104,095
1975	18,120,000	1,021,197	155,187	866,010	1,996	5,099	93,499	54,593	301,996	447,740	116,274
1976	18,084,000	1,125,739	156,988	968,751	1,969	4,663	95,718	54,638	318,919	516,328	133,504
1977	17,924,000	1,091,144	149,087	942,057	1,919	5,272	84,703	57,193	309,735	498,653	133,669
1978	17,748,000	1,027,993	149,257	878,736	1,820	5,168	83,785	58,484	292,956	466,516	119,264
1979	17,649,000	1,095,140	161,906	933,234	2,092	5,394	93,471	60,949	308,302	500,589	124,343
1980	17,506,690	1,209,984	180,235	1,029,749	2,228	5,405	112,273	60,329	360,925	535,783	133,041
1981	17,594,000	1,214,935	188,178	1,026,757	2,166	5,479	120,344	60,189	350,422	539,486	136,849
1982	17,659,000	1,142,202	174,833	967,369	2,013	5,159	107,843	59,818	295,245	534,244	137,880
1983	17,667,000	1,042,811	161,489	881,322	1,958	5,296	94,783	59,452	249,115	504,346	127,861
1984	17,735,000	989,126	162,157	826,969	1,786	5,599	89,900	64,872	222,956	488,621	115,392
1985	17,783,000	993,811	165,365	828,446	1,683	5,706	89,706	68,270	219,633	502,276	106,537
1986	17,772,000	1,025,037	175,210	849,827	1,907	5,415	91,360	76,528	217,010	519,570	113,247
1987	17,825,000	1,061,021	179,691	881,330	2,016	5,537	89,721	82,417	216,826	539,175	125,329
1988	17,898,000	1,129,241	196,396	932,845	2,244	5,479	97,434	91,239	218,060	560,887	153,898
1989	17,950,000	1,129,638	203,042	926,596	2,246	5,242	103,983	91,571	211,130	544,459	171,007
1990	17,990,455	1,144,874	212,458	932,416	2,605	5,368	112,380	92,105	208,813	536,012	187,591
1991	18,058,000	1,127,651	210,184	917,467	2,571	5,085	112,342	90,186	204,499	531,681	181,287
1992	18,119,000	1,061,489	203,311	858,178	2,397	5,152	108,154	87,608	193,548	495,708	168,922
1993	18,197,000	1,010,176	195,352	814,824	2,420	5,008	102,122	85,802	181,709	481,166	151,949
1994	18,169,000	921,278	175,433	745,845	2,016	4,700	86,617	82,100	164,650	452,322	128,873
1995	18,136,000	827,025	152,683	674,342	1,550	4,290	72,492	74,351	146,562	425,184	102,596
1996	18,185,000	751,456	132,206	619,250	1,353	4,174	61,822	64,857	129,828	399,522	89,900
1997	18,137,000	709,328	124,890	584,438	1,093	4,075	56,094	63,628	118,306	386,435	79,697
1998	18,175,000	652,202	115,915	536,287	924	3,843	49,125	62,023	104,821	363,295	68,171
1999	18,196,601	596,743	107,147	489,596	903	3,563	43,821	58,860	93,217	338,118	58,261
2000	18,976,457	588,189	124,890	483,078	952	3,530	40,539	60,090	87,946	340,901	54,231
2001	19,084,350	556,025	98,022	458,003	960	3,546	36,555	56,961	80,400	329,316	48,287
2002	19,134,293	537,121	95,030	442,091	909	3,885	36,653	53,583	76,700	318,025	47,366
2003	19,212,425	521,565	89,486	432,079	934	3,775	35,790	48,987	75,453	311,422	45,204
2004	19,280,727	507,648	84,914	422,734	889	3,608	33,506	46,911	70,696	311,036	41,002
2005	19,315,721	491,829	85,839	405,990	874	3,636	35,179	46,150	68,034	302,220	35,736
2006	19,306,183	482,270	83,966	396,304	921	3,169	34,489	45,387	68,565	295,605	32,134
2007	19,297,729	461,731	79,915	381,816	801	2,926	31,094	45,094	64,857	288,929	28,030
2008	19,467,789	466,131	77,546	388,585	836	2,799	31,789	42,122	65,537	297,952	25,096
2009	19,541,453	452,647	75,110	377,537	781	2,582	28,141	43,606	62,769	292,897	21,871
2010	19,395,206	456,202	76,492	379,710	868	2,797	28,630	44,197	65,839	293,232	20,639
2011	19,465,197	449,745	77,490	372,255	774	2,752	28,396	45,568	65,397	287,547	19,311

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UCR Crime Statistics prepared by the:
The Disaster Center

New York Crime Index Rates Per 100,000 Inhabitants

						Forcible		Aggravated		Larceny-	Vehicle
Year	Population	Index	Violent	Property	Murder	Rape	Robbery	assault	Burglary	Theft	Theft
1965	18,073,000	3,065.6	325.4	2,740.3	4.6	12.8	155.9	152.0	1,015.0	1,401.8	323.4
1966	18,258,000	3,338.1	342.6	2,995.4	4.8	13.4	164.8	159.6	1,074.2	1,568.7	352.5
1967	18,336,000	3,776.9	409.7	3,367.2	5.4	14.5	219.3	170.5	1,195.2	1,715.1	456.9
1968	18,113,000	4,579.3	543.9	4,035.4	6.5	14.0	330.5	192.9	1,385.3	2,071.1	579.0
1969	18,321,000	4,569.7	577.9	3,991.8	7.2	15.8	353.4	201.4	1,356.2	2,005.7	629.9
1970	18,190,740	4,971.3	685.0	4,286.3	7.9	15.8	446.1	215.2	1,470.4	2,125.0	690.9
1971	18,391,000	5,084.1	788.7	4,295.4	9.9	17.5	531.1	230.1	1,488.2	2,113.1	694.1
1972	18,366,000	4,380.9	754.3	3,626.6	11.0	22.9	470.4	250.1	1,306.1	1,748.3	572.1
1973	18,265,000	4,458.5	741.7	3,716.8	11.2	26.6	442.3	261.6	1,348.2	1,753.7	615.0
1974	18,111,000	5,034.0	803.0	4,231.0	10.6	28.9	479.3	284.1	1,500.9	2,155.4	574.8
1975	18,120,000	5,635.7	856.4	4,779.3	11.0	28.1	516.0	301.3	1,666.6	2,471.0	641.7
1976	18,084,000	6,225.1	868.1	5,357.0	10.9	25.8	529.3	302.1	1,763.5	2,855.2	738.2
1977	17,924,000	6,087.6	831.8	5,255.8	10.7	29.4	472.6	319.1	1,728.0	2,782.0	745.8
1978	17,748,000	5,792.2	841.0	4,951.2	10.3	29.1	472.1	329.5	1,650.6	2,628.6	672.0
1979	17,649,000	6,205.1	917.4	5,287.7	11.9	30.6	529.6	345.3	1,746.9	2,836.4	704.5
1980	17,506,690	6,911.6	1,029.5	5,882.0	12.7	30.9	641.3	344.6	2,061.6	3,060.4	759.9
1981	17,594,000	6,905.4	1,069.6	5,835.8	12.3	31.1	684.0	342.1	1,991.7	3,066.3	777.8
1982	17,659,000	6,468.1	990.1	5,478.1	11.4	29.2	610.7	338.7	1,671.9	3,025.3	780.8
1983	17,667,000	5,902.6	914.1	4,988.5	11.1	30.0	536.5	336.5	1,410.1	2,854.7	723.7
1984	17,735,000	5,577.3	914.3	4,662.9	10.1	31.6	506.9	365.8	1,257.2	2,755.1	650.6
1985	17,783,000	5,588.5	929.9	4,658.6	9.5	32.1	504.4	383.9	1,235.1	2,824.5	599.1
1986	17,772,000	5,767.7	985.9	4,781.8	10.7	30.5	514.1	430.6	1,221.1	2,923.5	637.2
1987	17,825,000	5,952.4	1,008.1	4,944.3	11.3	31.1	503.3	462.4	1,216.4	3,024.8	703.1
1988	17,898,000	6,309.3	1,097.3	5,212.0	12.5	30.6	544.4	509.8	1,218.3	3,133.8	859.9
1989	17,950,000	6,293.2	1,131.2	5,162.1	12.5	29.2	579.3	510.1	1,176.2	3,033.2	952.7
1990	17,990,455	6,363.8	1,180.9	5,182.8	14.5	29.8	624.7	512.0	1,160.7	2,979.4	1,042.7
1991	18,058,000	6,244.6	1,163.9	5,080.7	14.2	28.2	622.1	499.4	1,132.5	2,944.3	1,003.9
1992	18,119,000	5,858.4	1,122.1	4,736.3	13.2	28.4	596.9	483.5	1,068.2	2,735.8	932.3
1993	18,197,000	5,551.3	1,073.5	4,477.8	13.3	27.5	561.2	471.5	998.6	2,644.2	835.0
1994	18,169,000	5,070.6	965.6	4,105.0	11.1	25.9	476.7	451.9	906.2	2,489.5	709.3
1995	18,136,000	4,560.1	841.9	3,718.3	8.5	23.7	399.7	410.0	808.1	2,344.4	565.7
1996	18,185,000	4,132.3	727.0	3,405.3	7.4	23.0	340.0	356.7	713.9	2,197.0	494.4
1997	18,137,000	3,910.9	688.6	3,222.4	6.0	22.5	309.3	350.8	652.3	2,130.6	439.4
1998	18,175,000	3,588.5	637.8	2,950.7	5.1	21.1	270.3	341.3	576.7	1,998.9	375.1
1999	18,196,601	3,279.4	588.8	2,690.6	5.0	19.6	240.8	323.5	512.3	1,858.1	320.2
2000	18,976,457	3,099.6	553.9	2,545.7	5.0	18.6	213.6	316.7	463.4	1,796.4	285.8
2001	19,084,350	2,913.5	513.6	2,399.9	5.0	18.6	191.5	298.5	421.3	1,725.6	253.0
2002	19,134,293	2,807.1	496.6	2,310.5	4.8	20.3	191.6	280.0	400.9	1,662.1	247.5
2003	19,212,425	2,714.8	465.8	2,249.0	4.9	19.6	186.3	255.0	392.7	1,620.9	235.3
2004	19,280,727	2,632.9	440.4	2,192.5	4.6	18.7	173.8	243.3	366.7	1,613.2	212.7
2005	19,315,721	2,554.3	444.4	2,101.9	4.5	18.8	182.1	238.9	352.2	1,564.6	185.0
2006	19,306,183	2,487.6	434.9	2,052.7	4.8	16.4	178.6	235.1	355.1	1,531.1	166.4
2007	19,297,729	2,392.7	414.1	1,978.6	4.2	15.2	161.1	233.7	336.1	1,497.2	145.3
2008	19,467,789	2,394.3	398.3	1,996.0	4.3	14.4	163.0	216.4	336.6	1,530.5	128.9
2009	19,541,453	2,316.4	384.4	1,932.0	4.0	13.2	144.0	223.1	321.2	1,498.8	111.9
2010	19,395,206	2,352.2	394.4	1,957.8	4.5	14.4	147.6	227.9	339.5	1,511.9	106.4
2011	19,465,197	2,310.5	398.1	1,912.4	4.0	14.1	145.9	234.1	336.0	1,477.2	99.2

New York Law Enforcement Agency Uniform Crime Reports 1980 to 2005

US States Crime 2004 -2006 Crimes per 100,000 and Ranking

The table below provides the rank of each State's reported rate of crime as compared to the 50 States and the District of Columbia.  1 = the highest reported crime rate and 51 = the lowest. Going from one year to the next a higher number means, that compared to other States, the relative crime rate is increasing and a lower number means that the relative level of crime is decreasing.  The Index category represents the total number of crimes, and since most crimes involve property crime it is weighted towards these types of crime.  

State	Year	Population	Index	Violent	Property	Murder	Forcible Rape	Robbery	Aggravated assault	Burglary	Larceny- Theft	Vehicle Theft
New York	2008	3	47	25	49	27	50	11	26	48	49	46
New York	2007	3	48	25	48	29	50	11	25	49	48	46
New York	2006	3	47	23	48	27	50	9	25	48	48	44
New York	2005	3	46	22	48	29	49	5	25	48	47	45

United States Crime Statistics
* United States * Alaska* Alabama * Arkansas * Arizona * California * Colorado * Connecticut* Delaware * Florida * Georgia * Hawaii * Iowa * Idaho * Illinois * Indiana * Kansas * Kentucky * Louisiana * Massachusetts * Maryland * Maine * Michigan * Minnesota * Missouri * Mississippi * Montana * North Carolina * North Dakota * Nebraska * New Hampshire * New Jersey * New Mexico * Nevada * New York * Ohio * Oklahoma * Oregon * Pennsylvania * Rhode Island * South Carolina * South Dakota * Tennessee * Texas * Utah * Virginia * Vermont * Washington D. C. * Washington * Wisconsin * West Virginia * Wyoming *

Copyright 1997-2012

 The Disaster Center provides online coverage of disasters in the United States, compiling and providing links to disaster related statistics and studies: US Crimes Data from 1960  Tornado, Nonfatal occupational Injuries and Illnesses, Fatal Occupational Injuries, Motor Vehicle Traffic Injury and Fatality Data,  Child Nursery Equipment and Toys: Accident Rates by Age, Sports & Recreational Equipment: Injuries by Age and Sex, Home, Heating, Plumbing, and Appliance: Injuries by Cause, Age, and Rate, Furniture, furnishings, household, and personal use items: Accident injury rates by Age, Home, Work Tools and Misc. Items: Accident Injury rates by Age. US Cause of Death Data , US Anti-terrorism Threat/Risk Policy prior to September 11, 2001,  US Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Terrorism Policy prior to 9-11  Atlantic Hurricane pages and index.  Total student, Number of school-associated Violent Deaths and Number of Homicides and Suicides of Youth Ages 5–19, by Location: 1992–2002  Crimes and Indexes for USA Metropolitan Statistical Areas 

Source: FBI, Uniform Crime Reports

[Travis McGee]

The NYT has a treasure trove of stats on an interactive map. You can drill into it and filter it six ways from Sunday. I made a screen cap of this page last year. Go to the NYT for this date, and the map should still be up.

[bmwcyle]

Good work.

[Alberta's Child]

Whenever you come across a situation like this you simply have to look for the broader financial angle. If cities have a financial incentive to "reduce crime," they will under-report crime. In other circumstances, there might be a huge incentive to over-report something -- which explains why an organization like MADD reports statistics based on "alcohol-related accidents" that have nothing to do with drunk driving.

[ken5050]

Bet you can’t wait to go back after Quinn is elpected mayor..

[Alberta's Child]

... the NYPD has had a policy of aggressively addressing small crimes which,it's said,somehow lessens serious crimes.I'm not a criminologist so I'm not sure how that might work,but...

The approach is actually pretty simple. There are two parts to it:

1. Arrest someone for jumping a turnstile or spraying graffiti on the side of a building, and you now have the perpetrator's fingerprints to run through a police database of unsolved crimes.

2. Even if the fingerprint doesn't match the records from any unsolved crimes, you now have a new set of fingerprints on record to identify the perpetrator if he ever commits a crime later. There was a high-profile rape/assault case in Central Park back in the 1990s that was solved this way.

[nickcarraway]

I think you are expressing it wrong. I wouldn’t say New York City has “low levels of crime.” Say something like, New York City has low levels of crime compared to previous decades or something like that.