Sun Goes Wild: NOAA Issues Alert: Earth Directed X-Class Flare Is On Its Way; Chance Of More

SHTF Plan ^ | 1/8/14 | Mac Slavo

[Kartographer]

Then at 12:32 Central Time it went wild:

Massive sunspot AR1944 has erupted. The X1 flare has sent a coronal mass ejection into space, and it’s heading towards Earth.

…

NOAA has upped the risk from further X-class flares to 50% for the next 24 hours. Risk of M-class up to 80%

[Kartographer]

Preparedness for such an event starts with a simple grid-down supply. Once those basics are covered and you have enough to keep your family afloat for two weeks, you could broaden your preparedness horizons with long-term food storage, emergency medical supplies, gold and silver as bartering currencies, and self defense strategies to protect against the inevitable hordes that would follow.

[Kartographer]

Prepper’s PING!!

[MeshugeMikey]

if youre Hilary CLinton....preparations assume a different tone...

[Vermont Lt]

That right there is funny.

[Dick Bachert]

My grandfather had a bottle of Prohibition era booze bearing the label “Ye Olde Panther Piss”.

Yummy...

[Rio]

http://spaceweather.com/

STORMY SPACE WEATHER: Giant sunspot AR1944 is directly facing Earth and crackling with solar flares. Yesterday, Jan. 7th, an X1-class explosion in the sunspot's magnetic canopy hurled a CME in our direction. Sky watchers shoud be alert for auroras on Jan. 9th when the cloud arrives. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of strong geomagnetic storms. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

The X1-flare that hurled the CME toward Earth also accelerated a swarm of high-energy protons in our direction. Effects of the proton fusillade are visible in this Jan. 7th coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):

The "snow" in this movie is caused by solar protons striking the spacecraft's CCD camera. A veritable blizzard of speckles develops as the CME emerges into full view. Indeed, many of the protons are accelerated by shock waves at the forefront of the expanding cloud.

This ongoing radiation storm ranks S2 on NOAA storm scales. It is rich in "hard" protons with more than 100 MeV of energy, which accounts for the snowiness of the SOHO coronagraph images. According to NOAA, "passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk" during such a storm.

The source of all this activity is AR1944, one of the biggest sunspots of the past decade. The sprawling active region is more than 200,000 km wide and contains dozens of dark cores. Its primary core, all by itself, is large enough to swallow Earth three times over. To set the scale of the behemoth, Karzaman Ahmad inserted a picture of Earth in the corner of this picture he took on Jan. 7th from the Langkawi National Observatory in Malaysia:

More flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that is likely to erupt again today. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 8th. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

[maddog55]

Beers cold so I’m all set.

[Ghost of SVR4]

It’s an X1, while strong, it wont be bringing civilization to and end; maybe the interwebs will run slower but on the upside our magnetic field should react well; give me some global warmings pleaze!!!

[Bernard Marx]

That used to be the commonly used word. Now I think “whiz” is the politically correct euphemism.

[thackney]

This ongoing radiation storm ranks S2 on NOAA storm scales.

- - - - - - - - - - - -

NOAA Space Weather Scale for Solar Radiation Storms

Category		Effect	Physical measure	Average Frequency (1 cycle = 11 years)
Scale	Descriptor	Duration of event will influence severity of effects
Solar Radiation Storms			Flux level of >= 10 MeV particles (ions)*	Number of events when flux level was met (number of storm days**)
S 5	Extreme	Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible. Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult.	105	Fewer than 1 per cycle
S 4	Severe	Biological: unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: may experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded. Other systems: blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely.	104	3 per cycle
S 3	Strong	Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely. Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.	103	10 per cycle
S 2	Moderate	Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible. Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.	102	25 per cycle
S 1	Minor	Biological: none. Satellite operations: none. Other systems: minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions.	10	50 per cycle

* Flux levels are 5 minute averages. Flux in particles·s^-1·ster^-1·cm^-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also considered.
** These events can last more than one day.
*** High energy particle measurements (>100 MeV) are a better indicator of radiation risk to passenger and crews. Pregnant women are particularly susceptible.

[jag.drafting]

I humbly request to be in your ping list.

[Hot Tabasco]

Preparedness for such an event starts with

I'll just do what I did with the last such massive solar flare that almost destroyed the earth... Got my chinese takeout, bottle of wine and a couple of movies that I recorded.......See ya in the morning....

[MeshugeMikey]

The “Forebearer” of Panther Whizz no doubt...

[exDemMom]

Sky watchers shoud be alert for auroras on Jan. 9th when the cloud arrives.

Any idea how far south they will be visible? I would love to see them!

BTW, your pictures are not visible.

[Zeneta]

Beers cold so I’m all set.

Really ?

Colder than my tongue is all I need.

[ETL]

To activate the animation, go to the link at the bottom

http://www.spaceweather.com/index.php

[mountn man]

The “Forebearer” of Panther Whizz no doubt...

[goat granny]

now that is funny...

[chopperman]

Can someone fill me in on something? I thought that the cooler weather the last 17 years is due to less solar activity and that its predicted to continue for some time.

Isn’t this solar activity?

[mikrofon]

Here it comes ....