PREDICTIONS THREAD! Lock in your predictions for tomorrow! [Vanity]

[kevkrom]

Okay... election day is tomorrow, and it's time for all us to make final predictions on the record... you know, for bragging rights.

This is specifically for the Presidential race, but if you want to lock in overall and/or specific Senate and House races for "bonus points", by all means go ahead!

[fatima]

Great idea.
I predict a Romney win.All along I was sure BO would take it till the first debate was on.He doesn’t want to win and just going through the motions.

[napscoordinator]

I am going to say about 280 (Colorado will decide that Romney is our next President) and he wins popular vote 49-47 percent.

[shhrubbery!]

My belief, based on polls + anecdotal evidence:

Romney is surging now in the last 2-3 days before the election.

This surge will not be reflected in most polls because they were done too early to pick it up. Those polls had a short shelf life ... they're already past their stale date.

It's true that Romney lost a couple of points last week due to two things:
- Hurricane Sandy swamping out political the news, and the positive-looking photo op for Obama
- Obama got his "incumbent's last week bump." This came from about 1/3 of the "undecideds" finally telling pollsters they had chosen Obama. The other 2/3 of the undecideds will go for Romney; but those votes won't show up until election day.

Additionally, as we all know, there are intangible factors in Romney's favor that are hard to quantify in polls (e.g. intensity, increased participation by Evangelicals and pockets of Reagan Democrats).

So my prediction for the popular vote: Romney 51.7, Obama 47.

[TonyInOhio]

FR crashes by lunch time.

Cold stone solid prediction. :)

I would add a brief note from deep Red Ohio. I live in Putnam County, which typically votes about 70% Republican - a very conservative area. My office manager decided to vote early, and when she arrived at the Board of Elections this morning, there were people lined up to vote. That has never happened here before. The data says things are close, but my gut tells me Romney is in for a very big night.

[BreitbartSentMe]

Here's my prediction:

[Viennacon]

I’m predicting - ROMNEY - 310
OBAMA - 228

Romney takes all the swing states except Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nevada. We pick up one stray electoral vote in Maine. Romney wins the popular vote 51.5%

Romney’s coattails carry McMahon over the line in Connecticut. It has a similar effect for Akin in Missouri, Mourdock in Indiana, and Allen in Virginia.Brown wins in Mass by a hair. Rehburg has a good chance of defeating Tester in Montana, Thompson wins in Wisconsin, we take the senate.

Lose two in the House, but West and Bachmann keep their seats.

I am also predicting mass suicide at MSNBC, and a slight chance of Paul Krugman shitting his pants. We never hear Nate Silver’s name again.

[hoagy62]

OK...here’s my try at it.

Romney/Ryan wins, 52-46 in the popular vote, and with somewhere north of 300 electoral votes.

The Alphabets are forced to call it by midnight Eastern, although they’ll be VERY reluctant to do so.

For bonus points: Gain 6 seats in the House, 4 in the Senate.

In my own state of Washington: Sadly, Cantwell retains her Senate seat, Sec. of State McKenna turns the governor’s seat red, and in the major referendums & initiatives:

I-1185 (2/3 legislative vote or voter approval for tax/rate hikes)-PASS
I-502 (Legalization of marijuana)-FAIL
I-1240 (Charter Public Schools)-PASS
Ref 74 (Same-sex Marriage)-PASS (Not that I want it to, but based on everything I see and hear, barring a Red Sea-class miracle of Almighty God, this is going to pass. I voted NO.)

[CPT Clay]

Popular Vote 52-47 Romney, 295 Electoral Votes, 51 Republicans in the Senate and a pick up of 8 House seats.

[princeofdarkness]

54%-45% PV (54.3-44.9 to be more specific)
396-142 EV
41 States for Mitt.

+10 House
+5 Senate

[X-spurt]

Correcto! Barone is never overly partisan or prone to exaggeration and is probably the most thoroughly researching person in his business today. If he tells you a hen dips snuff, you don't have to look under her wing for the bottle.

[kabar]

I have it almost exactly the same 296-242 with Romney picking up one in Maine. I say the popular vote will be 51-47.

It would really be nice to see MN or MI go Rep so Axelrod can shave his moustache.

[princeofdarkness]

54%-45% PV (54.3-44.9 to be more specific)
396-142 EV
41 States for Mitt.

+10 House
+5 Senate

[US_MilitaryRules]

The world will end soon!

[Gorilla44]

Romney win: 328/210 EV.

[Sudetenland]

I've been predicting a Romney/Ryan margin of 10% since my August 15th blog, the day after Artur Davis endorsed Romney.

Since that time I have occasionally wavered to as low as 5%, but I will stick with my first specific results prediction made after the 1 st debate of RR-54%, OB-46%.

I affirmed that prediction in my November 3rd blog post:

Romney Landslide: You Read It Here First

Since that post, I have found several who were as bullish as I and said so even earlier than I.

Yeah, it's hubris, but I still have that gut feeling. The only hangup has been this Sandy business, but I am not convinced that it will influence voters significantly.

[The Bard]

Obama will be declared winner by networks (exceptions being Fox and Beck).

In the weeks to follow, massive vote fraud will be exposed.

Winner should be Romney. The big question will be, will Romney cede too soon to Obama?

[jackmercer]

I’m prepared to be tarred and feathered for this but as a scientist for over 15 years, I am going strictly by the data and putting my own desire and bias to the side.

Obama 294
Romney 244

It will be 303 Obama if he picks up Colorado but it’s too close to analyze objectively.

Obama will get popular vote by 1.8%

We will still retain a solid house majority though, so take heart, 2014 is just around the corner to get more. Senate will be 54-46 when you count independents caucusing with Dems.

[redangus]

Assuming no state that went for the GOP in 2008 switches, that at least 60% of the republican voters who voted for “The One” come home, we continue our hold on indies and figuring in my own Bristol on DWTS poll I believe Mitt wins 52% of the popular vote and around 300-310 EV.

[bgill]

Why is anyone surprised?

[Shery]

I made a mathematical error. I posted EVs in the range of 425-458, but what I meant was 325-358. Sorry. Still Romney with 53%, as stated int he earlier post.