Experts offer scaled-back sea level rise forecast

Reuters ^ | Sep 4, 2008 | Will Dunham

[decimon]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Worldwide sea levels may rise by about 2.6 to 6.6 feet by 2100 thanks to global warming, but dire predictions of larger increases seem unrealistic, U.S. scientists said on Thursday.

They examined scenarios for loss of ice from Greenland, Antarctica and the world's smaller glaciers and ice caps into the world's oceans, as well as ocean expansion simply due to rising water temperatures.

[stevem]

What do they say about sea levels when those ice sheets actually expand?

[Tarpon]

Since there is no longer any scientific basis for man caused global warming, I would refer to this as a wild a$$ guess. My guess is the seas will go down 5 feet.

[BILL_C]

In a few years we’ll be worried about GLOBAL COOLING again.

[ETL]

THE ACQUITTAL OF CARBON DIOXIDE
by Jeffrey A. Glassman, PhD

ABSTRACT:

"Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the product of oceanic respiration due to the well-known but under-appreciated solubility pump. Carbon dioxide rises out of warm ocean waters where it is added to the atmosphere. There it is mixed with residual and accidental CO2, and circulated, to be absorbed into the sink of the cold ocean waters. Next the thermohaline circulation carries the CO2-rich sea water deep into the ocean. A millennium later it appears at the surface in warm waters, saturated by lower pressure and higher temperature, to be exhausted back into the atmosphere. Throughout the past 420 millennia, comprising four interglacial periods, the Vostok record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is imprinted with, and fully characterized by, the physics of the solubility of CO2 in water, along with the lag in the deep ocean circulation.

Notwithstanding that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, atmospheric carbon dioxide has neither caused nor amplified global temperature increases. Increased carbon dioxide has been an effect of global warming, not a cause. Technically, carbon dioxide is a lagging proxy for ocean temperatures. When global temperature, and along with it, ocean temperature rises, the physics of solubility causes atmospheric CO2 to increase.

If increases in carbon dioxide, or any other greenhouse gas, could have in turn raised global temperatures, the positive feedback would have been catastrophic. While the conditions for such a catastrophe were present in the Vostok record from natural causes, the runaway event did not occur. Carbon dioxide does not accumulate in the atmosphere."

http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2006/10/co2_acquittal.html

_______________________________________________________________

The graph above represents temperature and CO2 levels over the past 400,000 years. It is the same exact data Al Gore and the rest of the man-made global warmers refer to. The blue line is temps, the red CO2 levels. The deep valleys represent 4 separate glaciation periods. Now look very carefully at the relationship between temps and CO2 levels (the present is on the right hand side of the graph) and keep in mind that Gore claims this data is the 'proof' that CO2 has warmed the earth in the past. But does the data indeed show this? Nope. In fact, rising CO2 levels all throughout this 400,000-year period actually lagged behind temperature increases ...by an average of 800 years! So it couldn't have been CO2 that got Earth out of these past glaciations. Yet Gore dishonestly and continually claims otherwise. Furthermore, the subsequent CO2 level increases due to dissolved CO2 being released from warming oceans, never did lead to additional warming, the so-called "run-away greenhouse effect" that Al Gore and his friends keep warning us about. In short, there is little if any evidence that CO2 had once led to increased warming during the past 400,000 years. -ETL

_______________________________________________________________

"The above chart shows the range of global temperature through the last 500 million years. There is no statistical correlation between the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere through the last 500 million years and the temperature record in this interval. In fact, one of the highest levels of carbon dioxide concentration occurred during a major ice age that occurred about 450 million years ago [Myr]. Carbon dioxide concentrations at that time were about 15 times higher than at present." [also see 180 million years ago, same thing happened]:
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=010405M

_______________________________________________________________

So, greenhouse [effect] is all about carbon dioxide, right?

Wrong. The most important players on the greenhouse stage are water vapor and clouds. Carbon dioxide has been increased to about 0.038% of the atmosphere (possibly from about 0.028% pre-Industrial Revolution) while water in its various forms ranges from 0% to 4% of the atmosphere and its properties vary by what form it is in and even at what altitude it is found in the atmosphere.

In simple terms the bulk of Earth's greenhouse effect is due to water vapor by virtue of its abundance. Water accounts for about 90% of the Earth's greenhouse effect -- perhaps 70% is due to water vapor and about 20% due to clouds (mostly water droplets), some estimates put water as high as 95% of Earth's total tropospheric greenhouse effect (e.g., Freidenreich and Ramaswamy, 'Solar Radiation Absorption by Carbon Dioxide, Overlap with Water, and a Parameterization for General Circulation Models,' Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (1993):7255-7264).

The remaining portion comes from carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone and miscellaneous other 'minor greenhouse gases.' As an example of the relative importance of water it should be noted that changes in the relative humidity on the order of 1.3-4% are equivalent to the effect of doubling CO2.

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/

_______________________________________________________________

Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System

Water vapor constitutes Earth's most significant greenhouse gas, accounting for about 95% of Earth's greenhouse effect (4). Interestingly, many 'facts and figures' regarding global warming completely ignore the powerful effects of water vapor in the greenhouse system, carelessly (perhaps, deliberately) overstating human impacts as much as 20-fold.

Water vapor is 99.999% of natural origin. Other atmospheric greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and miscellaneous other gases (CFC's, etc.), are also mostly of natural origin (except for the latter, which is mostly anthropogenic).

Human activities contribute slightly to greenhouse gas concentrations through farming, manufacturing, power generation, and transportation. However, these emissions are so dwarfed in comparison to emissions from natural sources we can do nothing about, that even the most costly efforts to limit human emissions would have a very small-- perhaps undetectable-- effect on global climate.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

[icwhatudo]

BWAHAHAHAHA!

and so it begins....

Soon we will be warning against how carbon emissions is causing the globe to cool.

[AmericaUnited]

Oh Geez! Barry Reason for Being is slowly disappearing.

[AmericaUnited]

Barry = Barry’s

[MrDaddyLongLegs]

can you tell me how to post a pic please

[Doogle]

[SampleMan]

Worldwide sea levels may rise by about 2.6 to 6.6 feet by 2100 thanks to global warming,...

Every single bit of above sea level ice would have to melt off 34' in order to get a 1' rise in the ocean. Now we only have 92 years left until 2100, so to raise the oceans 6.6 feet, we have to be melting the entire ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland by 2.4' per year.

So when is that going to start? Or is all 225' going to melt in the last few years of the century.

Don't these people own a calculator and a brain?

[count-your-change]

“”The real unknown right now is what we call the dynamic effect of ice not melting but just being pushed straight into the ocean,” Pfeffer added, referring to pieces of ice breaking off from huge masses of ice such as glaciers and ice sheets and floating in the sea.”

Pfeffer, the effect is exactly the same on sea levels.

[ETL]

This site below covers all the basics of posting in HTML. Posting links and images. Line breaks(br), new paragraph(p), bold type(b), italicize(i), etc, etc.

Dave's Site: HTML how-to guide:
http://www.davesite.com/webstation/html/tag_ref.shtml

[Dutchboy88]

Wait a minute...let’s see, up 5, down 5...Oh,NOOOOO!!!

No net change? This is terrible!

[decimon]

Now we only have 92 years left until 2100...

So when is that going to start?

This is something I didn't understood about the dire predictions of 30 - 40 years ago by Commoner, Ehrlich, et al. I would read that by 1980 it would be too late to make the changes we needed to make - changes impossible to make in that time period.

It is the same today. For how long has Gore been giving us but ten years? For the past ten years? Twenty? And, as you indicated, we have the 100 year thing. For how long has that been said? When do we start to see what's predicted?

It's no wonder that ordinary people are turning away from this doom and gloom.

[ShadowAce]

Text reads:

I was watching inconvenient truth the other day and theres the bit where it shows the sea level rising really high and flooding most of the world. Well i live near the sea, and don’t want to drown, so i got to thinking. Maybe if we lower the sea level a bit, when the water level rises then it won’t rise high enough to flood.

Anyway, heres the plan. Everyone who can should take a bucket of sea water and pour it down the sink. If lots of people put the effort in, we could lower the sea level substantially and create a better world for our children to live

[Nervous Tick]

>> I would refer to this as a wild a$$ guess. My guess is the seas will go down 5 feet.

Hey, I like this game! Can I play too?

My wild azz guess: the oceans will stay right at sea level for at least the next 1000 years — maybe longer.

[decimon]

Everyone who can should take a bucket of sea water and pour it down the sink.

That's ridiculous. You'll take all the salt out of the sea and the ships will sink. You need to study some science, man. ;-)

[ETL]

can you tell me how to post a pic please

I should have mentioned, you first need to copy the image location. To do that (at least with Windows), find an image that you want to post. Right click on it. Look for "Properties" in the menu that appears. Click on that and then copy the url for the image location. Image location urls usually end in .jpg or .gif, but not always. Finally, paste the image location url into the formula given at the site I linked you to (Dave's Site). Good luck and remember to always PREVIEW before posting.

[El Gato]

Worldwide sea levels may rise by about 2.6 to 6.6 feet by 2100

Or they may drop as more and more water gets tied up in the snow pack, especially in Northern Eurasia and North America.

The sun is blank--no sunspots. (image is from today Sept. 4, 2008).