Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
The intensity of the crap hitting the fan seems to be intensifying this week. Things are coming unraveled faster than I can keep up with at times.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing new limits on how much nitrogen, phosphate and other pollutants meat processing facilities can discharge into surface waters.
The EPA said the proposed rule change will “improve water quality and protect human health and the environment.”
Tracey Barton, Kansas Natural Resource Coalition’s executive director, said:
“The proposed EPA rule will require costly upgrades for meat processing facilities. The anticipated cost is $300,000-$400,000 for the initial upgrade with annual maintenance fees of $100,000.
“In Kansas, many small meat processors are unable to sustain these costs and will be forced to close their doors. For the facilities that are able to sustain the increase in capital, the costs will be passed onto farmers/ranchers as well as consumers, driving meat prices, which are at an all-time high, even higher.”
OBSERVATION - Remember back to the wuhan plandemic eras. The whole meat supply chain was smashed severely because of the bifurcated processes - some meat plants sold only to restaurants and the like, others to commercial outlets like grocery stores. In the turmoil, an effort was started to create smaller, more local meat processing capabilities to better ensure supplies in the event of another cluster like wuhan. Now the EPA is moving to crush that effort - most likely with globalist backing to damage the agricultural segment of our economy.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(Jerusalem Post) “Several national anti-Israel groups have threatened to “seize” universities across the United States to force them to adopt Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions policies on Saturday, raising the specter that encampments and protests like those seen at Columbia University could be replicated across the continent.
The supposed power of our administrators is nothing compared to the strength of the united students, staff, and faculty committed to realizing justice and upholding Palestinian liberation on campus,” National Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) wrote on social media.
“In the footsteps of our comrades at Rutgers-New Brunswick SJP, Tufts SJP, and Columbia SJP, we will seize our universities and force the administration to divest for the people of Gaza! Join the Popular University, take back our institutions!”
RELATED - Police clad with riot gear started swarming Yale University’s Connecticut campus early Monday where hundreds of students have been staging an anti-Israel protest.
Footage posted online showed cops arriving at the Ivy League school and blocking off entrances to a plaza at the New Haven campus where roughly 200 protesters were gathered.
OBSERVATION - This campus protest rage exploded this weekend. Current epicenters are Ivy League schools with supporters drawn from the silver spoon children of rich, leftist parents.
These protests are forming a hybrid group - anti-Israel, LGBT and your generic anarchists and a smacking of anti-white racists. They have gained a foot hold in these schools due to University presidents lacking the will power to take charge.
Besides a lot of chanting, these groups have posed a serious physical threat to Jewish students and Jewish leaders have called for the schools to protect them. Other have encouraged the students to leave for their own safety. On both counts the protestors have declared victory.
Funding seems to be abundant. Many have noted that the initial Colombia protest all the tents were the same type/manufacture. Unspoken is the logistics necessary - food and water for instance, along with the standard protest banners, etc. One donor site that has been identified is the ActBlue - the democrat fund laundering organization This creates some interesting contrasts - democrats funding protests/riots against leftist based colleges and universities. This is not unprecedented, look back to Portland and how Antifa et al has completely stomped the liberals in charge of the city. So far, biting the hand that feeds them is working.
Other support seems to be developing from elements that supported the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020. It becomes concerning that they may be shaping these useful idiots into a riot/ protest force going into the elections. In fact, one of the speakers at Colombia openly stated that this was training for later this summer.
The recent history has shown that this conglomeration has focused more on democrats / biden than they have republicans. Principally on the basis of ongoing ‘support’ to Israel. As the party conventions hit and the likelihood of continued growth in Trump’s approval over that of biden, the puppet masters may well shift the focus towards republicans.
As for now, these student ‘protestors’ have a local initiative and if school administrators don’t act soon, it will encourage this movement to quickly spread to non-Ivy league schools. The movement has some deep pocket financial support that may keep it rolling as well.
Violence and threats are the current significant concerns - particularly directed towards Jews. As noted above, should this movement morph into a broader anarchist program a la 2020, the violence potential will rise.
Economy-
The Biden administration’s latest plan to wipe out federal student loan debt for millions of borrowers could add up to $750 billion to the national deficit, according to a Tuesday report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
So far, the White House has announced $150 billion in so-called student loan “forgiveness” programs over the last year following the Supreme Court’s June decision to reject unilateral loan cancellations. The previously rejected program would have wiped out $430 billion in borrower debt.
Since then, the Biden administration has ignored the court’s ruling and enacted numerous similar but smaller programs to zero out federal student loan debt. Many of the cancellation announcements were rolled out through the White House’s newest income-driven repayment program, Saving on a Valuable Education Plan, which sets monthly repayment amounts based on borrowers’ incomes. According to the administration, roughly 8 million Americans are currently enrolled in SAVE. Over half of enrollees have a monthly payment of $0, and more than one million others pay less than $100 per month.
OBSERVATION - With the federal deficit projecting to grow at a rate of one TRILLION dollars every 100 or so days, the national debt is already sounding warnings that it cannot sustain such growth without imploding the country. Yet biden, and both parties in congress, seem very willing to expand the debt at even higher rates.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States was forced to stop its military operations in March 2024 in Niger – a landlocked, western African country in the Sahara desert. Niger may not immediately seem like a key ally for the U.S., but it served as a crucial staging ground for the U.S. military to carry out work and respond to terrorism in the region.
U.S. representatives are currently trying to negotiate a deal to maintain some sort of military presence in Niger. But, for now, Niger’s new ruling junta has declared that the U.S. military presence is a violation of Niger’s constitution. The fate of the U.S.‘ presence, including two military drone bases, remains uncertain.
OBSERVATION - Another foreign policy disaster for biden. He basically left them hostage to the new Nigerian govt and stuck there with no way out. Further, we are being replaced by Russians, seeking to influence the region for Russia and away from the west.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Warnings of the spread of bird flu, dengue and monkey pox are flitting around the inter webs and CDC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Insanity in congress - doing everything but securing our borders and holding the regime accountable.
Illegal Immigration –
See “Economy” above for related out of control spending
The Biden regime’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is allocating $300 million to ‘sanctuary‘ cities offering support such as shelter and food to illegal aliens. In light of a surge in border crossings, this funding will be channeled through the Shelter and Services Program (SSP). The SSP funds non-federal bodies such as NGOs and local governments that aid illegal aliens who are released into the United States. Of the total funding, $275 million will be dispensed initially, with the remaining $25 million set aside for later in the year.The program covers costs related to providing shelter, food, transportation, medical care, and personal hygiene to illegal aliens. Other expenses, such as the remodeling of existing facilities, clothing, translation services, outreach information, and administrative costs, are also included.
In addition to this, DHS disclosed an allocation of $340.9 million for the SSP competitive grant program. This comes after a distribution of over $780 million last year through SSP and another program to sanctuary cities and organizations providing services to illegals.
OBSERVATION - biden created the disaster, he is sustaining it through even more spending the US into bankruptcy.
***
A New York Home Depot has gone to extreme lengths to protect its customers from the state’s increased problem with lawlessness.
According to The New York Post, the store in Rochelle, New York has employed a guard dog and private security to try and solve the issue, which continues to grow worse as the Biden regime continues to allow millions of people cross into the country every year.
The Post reports:
“The guarded New Rochelle lot was quiet and no migrants loitered there when The Post visited this week, however, seven miles away in Throggs Neck, The Bronx, at least 30 male migrants hovered at the doors of Home Depot.
Some were day laborers simply trying to “shape” for work with local contractors. But many others aggressively confronted shoppers, trying to sell them phony Apple Airpods or soliciting tips for lifting items from shopping carts into cars — even when uninvited.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/new-york-home-depot-hires-guard-dogs-protect/
OBSERVATION - Illegals hanging out at Home Depot has been happing for a long time. What is changing is how they are now aggressively confronting shoppers and other potential criminal activity. Like with mass looting and other violence, these security measures will grow across the country in order to protect customers and stores.
China –
Efforts to militarily push the Philippines out of islands it controls appears to be increasing in the S China Seas. This is opposition to the UN court siding with Philippines over ownership of these islands.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile into East Sea.
***
South Korea has officially declared that the maritime buffer zone with North Korea no longer exists, setting a precondition for Seoul and Washington to conduct reconnaissance operations near the border in response to Pyongyang’s ongoing military provocations.
“North Korea has breached the September 19th military agreement over 3,000 times and has conducted artillery fire in the West Sea [Yellow Sea] over the last three days. As a result, the zone designated for the cessation of hostile actions effectively, no longer exists,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, or JCS, said Monday.
Speaking to reporters in Seoul, JCS spokesperson Lee Seong-Joon said that the ongoing provocations have essentially rendered the inter-Korean agreement inactive.
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/04/seoul-declares-maritime-buffer-zone-with-north-ineffective/
OBSERVATION - SK is stating the obvious and the potential of more, potentially more dangerous, confrontations are on the horizon.
Phillipines –
See China above
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Military equipment, including longer-range ATACMS, is expected to be sent to Ukraine by the end of the week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 of 7 Shahed drones. Most appear to have targeted Odesa.
Russian forces continue to make slow but steady gains on the northeastern margin of Chasiv Yar, claiming control over Bohdanivka village near Bakhmut
Outlook —
Continued Russian gains on the ground, but no evidence of any potential breakout or systematic collapse of Ukraine defenses. Russia may push harder in the next few weeks to gain as much territory before Ukraine gets rearmed by the US and Europe/NATO.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate has resigned
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate has resigned, the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday.
Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva announced his resignation after he failed to prevent Hamas’ unprecedented Oct. 7 attack, the deadliest terror attack in Israel’s history, the military said.
“The intelligence directorate under my command did not live up to the task we were entrusted with. I carry that black day with me ever since, day after day, night after night. I will carry the horrible pain of the war with me forever,” Haliva wrote in his resignation letter, according to a translation by the Associated Press.
***
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to announce sanctions against the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda Battalion in the next few days, according to three American sources.
The sanctions are a result of [supposed] human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank.
This will be the first time that the United States government has imposed sanctions on an Israeli military unit.
The sources stated that the American sanctions will prohibit the transfer of US military aid to the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, will prevent its soldiers and officers from taking part in training with the United States military, and will prevent the soldiers from this unit from participating in activities that receive American funding.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-29/
Israeli minister Gantz spoke on the phone with the US Secretary of State Blinken and asked him to reconsider the decision to impose sanctions on the Israeli army Netzah Yehuda Battalion: “would harm Israel’s legitimacy in wartime, and it has no justification”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF continued airstrikes on identified concentrations of Hamas forces throughout the strip.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More fire exchanged in the border region.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
RUMINT - Syria’s Assad reportedly is in negotiations with the US to reduce sanctions and other actions against the country due to the civil war.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to make sweeps throughout the West bank and arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
At least five rockets were launched from Iraq’s town of Zummar towards a U.S. military base in northeastern Syria on Sunday; two Iraqi security sources told Reuters.
The attack against U.S. forces is the first since early February, when Iranian-backed groups in Iraq stopped their attacks against U.S. troops.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan hosted Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul and rather than urging peace or a return of the hostages, he released a statement urging Palestinians to “unite for victory” over Israel. He called on the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to unite with Hamas against the Jews, calling it “vital” for them to do so.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Currently, this is close to a ‘tactical’ pause in operations. The soap opera with Iran temporarily sidelined, Israel is getting back to the shorter term action items at hand - the Rafah operation.
I’ve noted increasing IAF airstrikes on targets in Rafah, indicating probable battle field preparations for the ground operations. Civilian relocation efforts are underway, but no clear info on numbers departed vs remaining. Israel has stated 1 million need to be relocated. Military indicators suggest that the fight in Rafah will happen soon.
Battlefield preparation against Hezbollah continues with the death by a thousand paper cuts. Hezbollah’s continued attacks have given Israel lots of justification to strike Hezbollah targets deep in the country, major command and logistics sites, that will result in an impaired response when the ground war kicks off. Such strikes will also lessen the effectiveness of any potential spoiling attack against Israel too.
I still don’t see Israel kicking off the fight in the north until operations in Rafah have wound down.
The “islamic resistance” against US forces in Syria/Iraq looks to be on the upswing after months of relatively quiet. The problem that some of these Iranian backed groups are having is dealing with a resurgent ISIS.
Central / South America General-
Large, anti-leftist / anti - govt protests have broken out in Colombia and Brazil. In Colombia, focus is on the autocratic rules/laws the left is putting out as well as high fuel prices. Brazil focuses on freedom of speech and other anti-rights laws.
OBSERVATION - Central / South America has seen over the past months national elections a large split between hard leftist govts and more conservative ones.
Black Swans -
The southern Chinese province of Guangdong faces severe flooding risks with the Bei River’s water levels predicted to peak at 37.3 m (122 feet) early on April 22, 2024. This event, deemed a ‘once-in-a-century’ occurrence, comes after the region experienced record-breaking rainfall, affecting millions of people.
Residents of Guangdong province are bracing for potentially catastrophic flooding as the Bei River, a key tributary of the Pearl River, is expected to swell to 37.3 m (122 feet) by 01:00 LT on April 22, 2024 (17:00 UTC on April 21).
OBSERVATION - I’ve been relatively cautious in any assessment that weather events like this are on the rise. I may be reaching a tipping point though. My caution has been based on concerns of information bias - that with the internet and a snot full of smart phones weather stories like this are getting higher visibility where as in the past they occurred at a similar frequency and intensity, but just didn’t receive the reporting.
But with the record setting storms of the past couple year seeming to grow, recent examples are the massive flooding across the middle east (with some significant snow storms too) and China’s ongoing one hundred year floods, combined with massive flooding across many other regions, well something may be afoot.
I remain cautiously skeptic for the moment, but data are pointing to potential changes in weather patterns. These pattern changes are not man made, but reflect historical changes documented throughout the history of the planet. One instance of which was that much of N Africa was lush with vegetation, and Greenland was once green with vegetation too before becoming ice bound.
Residents of Guangdong province are bracing for potentially catastrophic flooding as the Bei River, a key tributary of the Pearl River, is expected to swell to 37.3 m (122 feet) by 01:00 LT on April 22, 2024 (17:00 UTC on April 21).
https://watchers.news/2024/04/21/once-in-a-century-flood-warning-issued-for-guangdong-as-bei-river-surges-to-record-levels-china/
I think you're on to something here... My concern is global 'elites' are messing with earths natural balances self correcting systems... and might be causing the problems they say they're trying to prevent.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Elon Musk’s X is facing strong criticism from both the centre-left Labor Party and the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition in Australia amid a legal challenge against the country’s online content tsar.
Mr. Musk labelled Australia’s eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant (a former Twitter employee), the “Australian censorship commissar,” after she issued an order to X to take down videos related to the alleged stabbing of a Christian bishop.
X says it had removed all posts domestically, but the commissioner’s order calls for the removal of content around the world.
“The Australian censorship commissar is demanding *global* content bans!”
OBSERVATION - Musk and “X” are facing a slue of challenges to its free speech platform by other leftist/globalist countries. In the Aussie case, the demands for a ‘global’ ban drive the boat. Australia has been one of the proto-WEF controlled nations that have pushed globalist agenda on its citizens, now trying to leverage its “information control” demands on X and the rest of the world. This is a prototype effort that the WEF wants for the whole world - 1984 Orwellian ministries of ‘truth’ controlling citizens access to real truth.
***
Bloomberg reported Thursday that unnamed officials inside the White House said the idea of declaring a climate emergency, first considered in 2021 and again in 2022, is once again under consideration. Such a climate change “emergency” would effectively shut down much of the industry and civilian actions by edicts similar to those issued during the wuhan plandemic. Much of the rumors are also tied to this being an effort to secure the progressive left base in advance of the general election.
U.S. Oil and Gas Association President Tim Stewart told me in an interview. “It’s not about climate, it’s about control: Control over the entire U.S. economy, control of production, manufacturing, distribution, and consumption. If you control energy, you control all these things. Which means you have control of the people.”
A biden crackdown would inevitably create the flight of billions of dollars in capital to other parts of the world where environmental regulations are far less stringent than in the United States. That alone would cause the US economy to go into an unrecoverable economic tailspin and likely drag the rest of the world with it.
OBSERVATION - Crazy to think about this at this stage, but we are totally not out of the woods. If one operates on the premise that the regime’s actions have been deliberate and not due to ‘screwed up, underqualifed’ individuals making poor policy - you almost have to see this emergency declaration coming sooner rather than later.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Very busy day yesterday as the anti-semitic protests swarmed over numerous university/college campuses. This in the response to this call by “Students for Justice in Palestine”
Official statement:
“Universities have chosen profit and reputation over the lives of the people of Palestine and our will as students.
The supposed power of our administrators is nothing compared to the strength of the united students, staff, and faculty committed to realizing justice and upholding Palestinian liberation on campus.
In the footsteps of our comrades at Rutgers-New Brunswick SJP, Tufts SJP, and Columbia SJP, we will seize our universities and force the administration to divest, for the people of Gaza!”
The University of Pennsylvania has banned Students for Justice in Palestine from campus.
The prototype protests centered on Columbia U, which protestors ‘redisgnated’ as the “Peoples’ University”
Campuses at Yale, NYU, MIT, Emerson, UMich, UC Berkeley. and Tufts University as well as some others answered the call. Pro-Palestine protesters blocked the entrance of a building at California State Polytechnic University with couches, chairs, desks, and other items. Students reportedly chanted calls for the death of Jews and the nation of Israel.
New York police moved in late yesterday to tear down protest sites at NYU, Yale and last but not least Columbia (for the second time). Mass arrests were made, including substantial numbers of supportive facility at NYU and Colombia.
NY Police actions spurred a march by protestors through China Town with flares, reportedly headed toward NYPD headquarters. Anti-Israel, antisemitic protestors reportedly set fires in the streets of New York City on their way.
OBSERVATION - It must also be noted that yesterday was Passover, and the violent protest activity cannot be lost on that coincidence.
The deep communist roots supporting the protests is exemplified by the Colombia protestors designating the facility as a “peoples university” . So the hybrid collusion of anti-US and anti-Israelis useful idiots found common ground for these protests. The over throw of the US held a prominent spot next to the abolition of Israel.
The administration at Colombia is in tatters for supporting the protestors. They finally relented and asked for police removal. In part due to the rising cry for the removal of the president of the university as well as deep pocket donors announcing the cessation of funds contributions.
Also of serious note is the broad support by facility at these institutions. While the universities can suspend or expel the protestors, dealing with tenured professors is another matter.
The NYC police response may have put a damper on the takeovers, but the financial and operation support the protestors received is not about to allow the momentum developed over the past several days go to waste as it seems that for the moment they have found an issue upon which they can gain traction on and grow the movement. I think the ultimate goal is to eventually recreate the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020. Once classes are out here at the end of the month, the movement goes broader into the local communities and out of the nurseries of the college campuses. They’ve tapped into the genocidal hatred of Israel that the left embraces and found fertile ground in these college kids - born and raised in rich leftist homes.
I expect to see growth to incorporate the pro-illegal movements into the mix.
What will happen is that some of the old guard recipients of the lefts attention - predominantly blacks - may develop push back towards the pro-illegal supporters. This is seen in Detroit and Chicago where the democrat civic leaders are facing stiff push back in lavishing spending on illegals to the exclusion of the historic black underclasses.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of downgraded APR 20, 2024
Action between Israel and Iran appear to be deescalating at the moment.
Economy-
Home ownership continues to be on the ropes as prices continue to new highs and mortgage rates continue to climb as well to new highs.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Boxer will be out of commission for an unknown period of time due to the unavailability of large dry docks for rudder repair. The ship was supposed to be on a Pacific deployment.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A North Carolina Court of Appeals found that a clinic, where personnel gave a 14-year-old boy a COVID-19 shot without his consent or parental consent, was protected by the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP Act). The court concluded that the Guilford Board of Education, which hosted the clinic, was also covered by the PREP Act.1
Despite calling the act of forcing a child to get a COVID-19 shot against his will and without his parent’s consent, “egregious,” the court unanimously concluded that the PREP Act preempted state law and protected the defendants from being held liable for battery, violation of Tanner’s mother’s constitutional liberty and parental rights, and violation of Tanner’s bodily autonomy and plaintiffs’ federal constitutional rights.2
OBSERVATION - The moles in the judicial system continue to cover for civil rights violations stemming from the wuhan plandemic. This will certainly be appealed because the PREP act cannot be allowed to supersede constitutionally protected rights.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
I’m relatively silent on this for now. Congress, courts, WH, etc are so screwed up now along with the frenzy that this the incoming general elections that it all makes me sick to my stomach.
AS a threat, our political parties are on the cusp of essentially preparing the country for a multi-polar collapse - economy, legal system, election security, constitutional security etc.
The most dangerous potential actions continue to be a jump into full blown tyranny by the left utilizing multiple tools and false flag events. Equal to this are potential attempts on the lives of Trump and other key conservatives such as Justice Thomas. Secondly impacts create economic meltdown and possible war - both civil and against Russia/China/Iran.
***
(FO) Former President Trump’s legal team said Jack Smith’s office disregarded legal obligations and Department of Justice (DOJ) policies “to support the Biden Administration’s egregious efforts to weaponize the criminal justice system” against Trump.
According to the legal team’s filing, new evidence revealed that “politically motivated operatives” in the Biden administration and the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) began a “crusade” against Trump in early 2021.
Why It Matters: Newly un-redacted filings in the Miami court show that Trump Presidential Record Act representatives were cooperating with the NARA on turning over documents as required by the law. However, the records Trump’s legal team received through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) show that the White House Counsel’s Office was already in contact with the NARA on 21 January 2021 and referred the NARA to the DOJ. The evidence presented by Trump’s counsel appears to show that federal officials, including the Biden White House, began coordinating a politically motivated effort to punish Trump as soon as he left office.
Biden / Harris Watch –
“I condemn the antisemitic protests,” biden tells reporters. “I also condemn those who don’t understand what’s going on with the Palestinians”
North/South Korea –
North Korea has carried out a simulated nuclear counterattack against enemy targets personally observed by leader Kim Jong-un, state media reported on Tuesday. As part of the exercise, several “super-large” multiple rocket launchers fired a missile salvo towards an island in the Sea of Japan.
Monday’s drills came just days after Pyongyang claimed to have tested a new “super-large warhead” cruise missile and a new type of anti-aircraft missile. The US and South Korean air forces also continue to hold joint exercises on the peninsula.
Pyongyang for the first time claims to have tested the country’s so-called “nuclear trigger” command and control system, as well as “[the] prompt counterattack capacity of the state nuclear force,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) wrote. Military units worked in a hypothetical scenario in which North Korea’s highest level nuclear crisis alarm is issued in response to an attack.
OBSERVATION - NK’s missile forces have come a long way over the past decade. These exercises display that growth in technological and tactical developments. Though NK has successfully tested both fission and fusion (thermonuclear) bombs, the verdict is still out as to whether or not they possess the technology to miniaturize the mechanisms for placement on missiles. One would expect another nuke test for them to confirm the design. Early last year NK finished reopening tunnels at their underground test site sparking discussions that they may be preparing to conduct such a test of an actual warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
NATO commanders are indicating that Russia is planning a substantial summer offensive.
RUMINT-
Russia reportedly has shifted most of its key rail supply lines towards the east and away from the Kerch Bridge, likely in expectation of an eventual attack that takes the bridge down. This shift makes sense given that most of the war action is on the Ukraine eastern fronts and not the southern ones.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 16 Shahed drones, launched by Russia overnight. Various Ukraine cities were hit by other missiles such as Kyiv and Odesa.
Kharkiv increasingly being targeted by missiles and glide bombs. The TV / cell phone tower in Kharkiv was partially collapsed after Russian airstrike.
Ukraine hit a large target near occupied Mariupol.
Russia has used large scale smoke cover for the first time in the war
in a push to Belogorovka to ensure the advancement of their troops. They are hoping the smoke will blind Ukranian drones to the movements of the forces.
Avdiivka -
Ukrainian forces screwed up a relief operation that has permitted the Russian army to surge to less than 3km from main Ukrainian defensive line west of Avdiivka. The advance has dangerously exposed flanks that Russian must quickly secure or face the forces being cut off and defeated.
Outlook —
Very bad day for Ukraine as Russia gains even more momentum. The push west of Avdiivka is the most dangerous and could place the Russian army at a key cross roads that would permit deeper enveloping attacks.
Russia has via propaganda been warning that Kharkiv will soon fall to a new Russian offensive. Russia has been pounding the city daily with drones and short ranged missiles for weeks now. Russia was thwarted in the first year of the war from taking the city due to the tenacious defense of its mobilized citizens and army units. With Russia seeing success on fronts to its south, it may sense a degree of vulnerability to renewed assaults. Russia has established a new higher command in the region that would direct those operations.
Old school solution to modern technology - smoke. Ukraine drones have been the bane of Russian forces for over a year now and have almost single handedly held the defense with the absence of artillery shells. It will be important to see how quickly Ukraine is able to counter this development.
Poland –
(FO) Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Poland is ready to host NATO nuclear weapons in response to Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“If our allies decide to deploy nuclear arms on our territory as part of nuclear sharing to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank, we are ready to do so,” Duda said.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania is establishing permanent military training centers that will operate nationwide to prepare personnel to serve in the rear during war, Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas told reporters on Friday.
A total of 27 command headquarters that are due to be fully operational next year will be set up in the major cities of the NATO member country in an effort to “prepare the public to send a deterrent signal to the enemy,” the official said.
The Baltic state’s Defense Ministry expects such command posts to become a “link between the Lithuanian Armed Forces and the citizens who can defend the country with arms” in the event of war.
Earlier this week, Germany sent its first military unit to Lithuania as part of a plan to have a full armor brigade permanently stationed in the Baltic state. Under the plan, the 5,000-strong brigade will be stationed less than 20km (12 miles) from the border with Belarus, a key Russian ally. Lithuania also borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
https://www.rt.com/news/595806-lithuania-nato-civilian-defense/
OBSERVATION - Lithuania has a history of being abused by Russian and fought hard to regain their freedom from the former Soviet Union. It along with other former Soviet eastern block countries are taking the threats of a potential Russian invasion in a post-Ukraine scenario very seriously.
Placement of the German military force reflects the concern over the corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad that some military planners see as the modern “Fulda Gap” - for you Cold Warriors - focus of an initial Russian strike to land bridge to Kaliningrad and split the Baltic states from the rest of NATO to the south.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas facing potential ejection from Qatar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
US Secretary of State spokesman - Hamas has changed its goal and demands in the prisoner talks.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Two Hamas rocket launching positions in the southern Gaza Strip were struck by Israeli fighter jets overnight, the Israeli army says. The military says the strike was carried out following new intelligence information that was received over the past few days, allowing the rocket launchers to be destroyed before they were used.
Other rocket launchers managed to fire about a half dozen rockets from N Gaza into Israel.
Israel continued targeting Hamas and affiliated elements with air, naval and artillery strikes throughout the Gaza Strip. Over the past day, fighter jets and additional aircraft alone struck approximately 25 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military infrastructure, observation posts, and launch posts.
***
According to the Wall Street Journal:
IDF is getting ready to enter Rafah. The evacuation is estimated to take about two to three weeks, and it will take around six weeks to clear out Hamas in Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A drone launched missile targeted a car in S Lebanon, the Israeli Army reports that it eliminated two Hezbollah leaders in southern Lebanon.
A barrage of some 35 rockets were fired from Lebanon at the northern community of Ein Zeitim a short while ago, the military says.
The attack set off sirens in Safed and nearby towns.
The IDF says there are no injuries in the attack, and that troops shelled the launch sites.
Also overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck a Hezbollah position in southern Lebanon, and earlier, two more buildings where Hezbollah operatives were gathered were hit, the IDF adds.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces raided numerous sections, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
“Today, a coalition fighter destroyed a launcher in self-defense after reports of a failed rocket attack near the Coalition base at Rumalyn, Syria. No US personnel were injured.” A US military official confirms.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Qatari Foreign Ministry: There has been no decision taken regarding the presence of Hamas leaders in Doha.
NOTE - the multi billionaire who are the ‘leaders’ of Hamas reside in Qatar and that country has been the focal point of much of the hostage/ceasefire negotiations. Now it appears that Hamas has worn its welcome out as there are rumblings of a pending expulsion - resulting in the above report.
Turkish media quoted Erdogan - “I do not think that Hamas will leave Qatar”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Until the preparations for the Rafah campaign are completed - if the WSJ source is correct - we will have about 2-3 weeks of ground and air ops as been ongoing for the previous week. Israel will continue to hit targets of opportunity in both Gaza and S Lebanon.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Hardline Iranian parliamentarian and member of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Javad Karimi Ghodousi implied that if granted the permission, Iran could test its first nuclear weapon within one week.
OBSERVATION - There is a lot of propaganda and rhetoric surrounding this statement, but intel analysis has indicated that Iran could produce the pure uranium necessary for a fission device. The second question is does Iran have the technical know how to produce a test bomb? Iran spent a lot of time (and probably money) in NIK as they developed their weapon and may have gotten a lot of know how from there. Pakistan may have also supplied knowledge. Now with Russia buying war supplies with transfer of technology, that for a nuke may well be buried in the mix as well.
Iran is far from the bumbling and stumbling weapons development country of but a few years ago. They have fair missile technology - though the recent attack against Israel suggests that they had a high failure rate. So some aspects of their skills and knowledge necessary to make a nuclear bomb may be lacking - all is speculation though.
One thing is certain - if Iran manages to pull an explosion off, they still have the next hurdle is to produce one sufficiently miniaturized to mount in a war head. Iran launched over 100 missiles at Israel and only 7 managed to make it through the defenses and crash failures. To succeed at that ration means Iran has to make A LOT of nuclear warheads, or find some other covert way of delivering them to a desired target.
That is only feasible if Israel doesn’t massively hit Iran’s production centers before this occurs.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Globalist censorship is now reaching out to another free speech platforms - Rumble being the latest - from the dismal confines of Australia
Rumble CEO and founder Chris Pavlovski says he has received “censorship” demands from authorities in Australia, New Zealand, and other countries.
Mr. Pavlovski said the video-sharing platform noticed a “dramatic increase” in global censorship.
This comes after Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant ordered social media companies to remove videos and images related to two stabbing events in Sydney last week. (NOTE - This is the stabbing of an orthodox priest by a jihadi)
“If they fail to remove the content, then we can go to search engines such as Google or Bing to really minimize the amount of content that Australians can see,” she said, referring to additional measures that could be implemented to restrict the sharing of content.
Rumble is a NASDAQ-listed online video-sharing platform with a focus on free speech that enables people to share and monetise videos.
Explaining his concern Mr. Pavloski noted censorship infringed on “everyone’s human rights.”
OBSERVATIONS - Same as yesterday with “X”. The globalist demand full control of what is expressed and is trying to use this tactic to leverage that demand. This tactic had been successful in the past when these media sites were hard leftist (on in the case of Rumble, not in existence yet), but recent changes are a challenge to US based firms protected by the 1st amendment.
RELATED - In further fallout from yesterday’s reported fight against X by Australian officials, Tasmanian Sen. Jacqui Lambie is outraged. She told Sky News that she wants Musk jailed and that she has deleted her X account.
The audacity of an Aussie demanding jail for a US citizen over constitutionally protected rights. Remember, those rights are the number one target to be removed upon the ascension of a global dictatorship.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-Palestine protesters gathered outside of Senate leader Chuck Schumer’s home in Brooklyn. The police are reportedly now making mass arrests as protesters take over the streets.
***
Gaza war protesters have vowed to remain at Columbia University until their demands are met, despite mass arrests and disciplinary action.
More than 100 students were arrested at a Columbia protest “encampment” last week, followed by dozens more at Yale and New York University in recent days.
Many at Columbia have been suspended, prompting vocal calls for disciplinary measures to be dropped or rescinded.
Some students on campus have reported antisemitic harassment from protesters.
A deadline that was given by the university on Tuesday for protesters to disband by midnight has now been extended by 48 hours, with officials reporting “important progress” in talks to reach a deal.
In a news conference on Tuesday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams and top police officials blamed “outside agitators” for stirring up protests at Columbia and New York University and “really trying to use this as an opportunity to cause violence in our city.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68886727
OBSERVATION - “outside agitators” indeed! Reports that the protestors are being fed top quality grub indicates that there are deep pockets supporting this (as well as the other ) protests. It has lingered on here for so long compared to the others that were cleared out relatively quickly is that the university president and administration are sympathetic to the cause and are too scared to act as the adults to bring matters to a close.
This old grumpy geologist says - expel them from the school and nuke their academic records - with no refund. Prosecute them to the fullest. That’ll put a damper in all these trust fund babies.
RELATED - Gov. Kathy Hochul has been in talks with Colombia university to activate the National Guard if the protesters refuse to leave.
ADDITIONALLY - Analysis continues to link key financial and political supporters of the 2020 riots to these current protests at various colleges and universities. Some note that in order to be up to full speed in the months leading up to the November elections, protests have to get stoked up now. Apart from some assaults on jewish citizens, these protests have been relatively calm in comparison to the Floyd riots. How long can this be expected to continue?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Bloomberg reported that Chad is requesting that US forces withdrawal from the country. According to Bloomberg, the Chad chief of staff’s letter was meant “to warn the Americans that we have made the decision to stop their activity.”
Separately, CNN also reported last Thursday on Chad’s request for U.S. troops to leave the country.
Bloomberg noted that Chad’s request comes just ahead of a presidential election, which the country’s interim leader Mahamat Deby is widely expected to win.
If the U.S. leaves Chad, the Army would have to close what Bloomberg described as “one of its few remaining outposts to fight a roiling jihadist insurgency in the region.”
Bloomberg further noted that the military rulers of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, who all seized power over the past three years, have cut security ties with their former allies in the West.
OBSERVATION - More biden foreign policy disasters ongoing.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Health officials in New York City are seeing a jump in cases of a rare disease linked to rat urine. This news comes just one year after the rulers anointed a czar for its “war on rats.”
It doesn’t seem to be going well, like every war the U.S. has backed lately. Harry Nespoli, president of the Uniformed Sanitationmen’s Association, which represents Department of Sanitation workers, told USA Today: “The streets are looking cleaner, but the rats are still around…Look, they were here before us.”
“Experts” claim that cases of leptospirosis, the illness caused by exposure to rats’ urine, have been increasing as sanitation workers are exposed to the bacteria.
https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/rat-urine-disease-spreading-in-new-york-city
OBSERVATION - Health and sanitary conditions in major cities are being worsened by a combination of homeless camps, street drugs and unvetted illegals. Leptospirosis was identified passing thru homeless areas in Kalifornia a number of years ago. Conditions in NYC only reflect the worsening conditions that favor massive rat populations.
To note - The overall risk of death for leptospirosis is 5–10%, mostly from long term undetected cases (commonly seen among homeless ). In the United States, there were 100 to 150 leptospirosis cases annually. In 1994, leptospirosis ceased to be a notifiable disease in the United States except in 36 states/territories where it is prevalent such as Hawaii, Texas, California, and Puerto RicoEasily treatable, but
***
CDC is reportedly saying that milk from cows infected by avian flu viruses is still safe to consume, though it hasn’t finished tests to insure that the virus is killed during pasteurization.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
When people like biden and bill clinton praise you, there is something wrong - are you paying attention Speaker Johnson?
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden on Tuesday during a campaign event claimed to have once been an eighteen wheeler truck driver.
“Besides, I used to drive an 18-wheeler,” Biden said to staffers at his campaign office in Tampa.
Problem is biden has never driven an 18-wheeler.
The White House previously told Fox News that biden riding in a truck in 1973 is the same thing as driving an 18-wheeler.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024
US Department of State - Iran’s cyber actors threaten the security of the United States and our partners. Yesterday, US Treasury sanctioned two entities and four individuals involved in malicious cyber activity for or on behalf of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Cyber Electronic Command.
Illegal Immigration –
El Paso County DA Bill Hicks says after a county judge abruptly tried to dismiss 141 rioting charges against foreign nationals who rushed national guard/DPS claiming there was no probable cause, a grand jury overruled the judge, and issued indictments in all cases.
OBSERVATION - This same ‘magistrate’ judge has a leftist background and it is good a grand jury indicted these illegals. The judge tipped his hand and the local DA was ready for it.
China –
WSJ: The United States is developing sanctions that threaten to cut off some Chinese banks from the global financial system that cooperate with the Russian Federation, process payments and provide loans.
NOTE - I recently noted that Chinese banks have started limiting transactions with Russia.
Phillipines –
India delivered the first batch of BrahMos cruise missiles to the Philippines on April 19. This delivery comes two years after the signing of a $375 million deal between the two nations.
Amidst escalating tensions in the South China Sea, the delivery of BrahMos missile systems to the Philippines holds strategic significance. The Philippines intends to deploy the three batteries of the BrahMos missile system in their coastal areas to enhance their defense capabilities and counter potential Chinese threats in the region.
One of the key features of the BrahMos missile is its low radar signature, providing it with stealth capabilities. With a cruising altitude of up to 15 kilometers and the ability to descend to as low as 10 meters during the terminal phase, the BrahMos is highly versatile and effective in engaging targets with precision.
https://defence-blog.com/india-delivers-first-brahmos-cruise-missiles-to-philippines/
OBSERVATION - China’s aggressiveness is creating armed push back in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Reports that Russia has moved “Iskander” tactical missiles to Karelia, Russia. These missiles are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead
The Iskander missile has about a 500km range and can travel at about 7500km per hour.
From their location in Karelia, Russia, these missiles can reach most of populated Finland within just a very few short minutes.
Greatest concerns are that they have deployed ones that are armed with nuclear warheads to the region.
RUMINT-
Growing reports that Russia has a formed a military group called group N (North) who’s mission is to attack northeastern Ukraine targeting Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Russia may feel that this area is weakened because of support going to the main battle areas of Avdiivka and Bakhmut. Also associated with reported Russian plans for a summer offensive. Russian forces were cleared out of this area in the summer/fall of 2022.
Economic Impact –
WSJ: The United States is developing sanctions that threaten to cut off some Chinese banks from the global financial system that cooperate with the Russian Federation, process payments and provide loans.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 8 drones over Belgorod, Kursk, Voronezh and Smolensk regions.
6 persons injured as result of Russian missile strike with S-300 missile at Schevchenkivsky district of Kharkiv overnight. Kharkiv also reportedly being hit by 1 and a half ton glide bombs.
Incendiary munition rains down over Chasiv-Yar. Russians are attempting to occupy the city. Rumors are that Russian forces have been ordered to occupy it before the 9th of May by Russian leadership.
Russian Rosneft oil terminal heavily burning in Yartsevo, after a Ukrainian drone attack this morning.
Outlook —
Ukraine is still desperately defending Chasiv Yar, a key stronghold that if captured could allow Russia to push north, west and southwest. Uncertain at this time just how quickly US munitions will be able to reach the front lines. I’m sure Russia is watching like a hawk to locate and track such shipments, looking to destroy them before they can reach the front.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel progressing quickly to get civilians in Rafah moved before engaging Hamas in the city directly.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Clashes were reported between Hamas and the IDF north of the Nuseirat camp in the central Gaza Strip.
***
Israel continued to hit Hamas positions with air and artillery fire throughout Gaza.
***
Israeli news reports that tents are being constructed in Khan Yunis to evacuate civilians before the IDF begins its operation in Rafah
***
IDF is preparing for a ground incursion into northern Gaza. On Tuesday, the IDF warned Gazans in Beit Lahia to leave their homes.
***
Israeli Air Force fighter jets destroyed two Hamas rocket launchers embedded in a humanitarian zone in southern Gaza, the army said Wednesday, as the war started by the terrorist group entered its 200th day.
The Israel Defense Forces said the launch pads were loaded with rockets and were struck before they could be used to attack the Jewish state.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah and Israeli forces continued to exchange fire across the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Pentagon says Iran militia groups conducted two unsuccessful attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on April 22, the first such attacks since Feb 4. Calls upon Iraq to increase efforts to secure US / Coalition forces in the nation.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to maneuver its chess pieces to commence with the delayed operation in Rafah. Two to three weeks to accomplish the evacuation, another 6 to finish mopping up Hamas. This put us into mid May for the start of operations in Rafah.
IMHO - very few hostages will be rescued in the operation. Hamas has killed or is likely to kill all that they have their hands on once Israel enters Rafah. The hostage issue is one that has been lost from the headlines due to the incessant bleat over the hardship of arabs in Gaza. Hama’s use of the hostages as a human shield to force Israel into ceasefire agreements is virtually null, due in large part to the outrageous demands being made.
I expect to see an ebb and flow to operations. Just like the impending raid in N Gaza hitting reformed Hamas elements. Same for the fight against Hezbollah. Israel continues to successfully identify, locate and terminate important military leaders as well as key facilities/locations. These strikes will cause Hezbollah to up its attacks on Israel with moderate rocket attacks, being careful not to poke the bear too hard, but still invites stronger Israeli retaliatory air strikes.
Central / South America General-
HAITI- Haiti’s capital has been rocked by a fresh wave of violence as warlord Barbecue ordered his thug army to “burn every house you find”.
Gun battles are raging in central Port-au-Prince as ruthless gangs march towards the presidential palace - burning, looting and killing - amid fears they are plotting a bloody coup.
Officials now believe that 90 per cent of the capital is controlled by once warring gangs who loosely unified to spark a new dawn of violence at the end of February.
At the centre of the storm is Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier, the head of Haiti’s most powerful gang alliance and now leader of the armed onslaught against his home city.
Two voice recordings are circulating on social media which locals claim is Barbecue ordering his soldiers to burn houses down in Lower Delmas, an impoverished part of the capital where he grew up.
“Continue burning the houses. Make everybody leave,” a man says in the first audio recording.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/11156186/haiti-violence-barbecue-burn-storm-palace/
OBSERVATION - These actions will only spur more illegal immigration towards the US, bringing with them the same attitudes that allowed this kind of murderous mayhem to flourish in the first place.
p
“Besides, I used to drive an 18-wheeler,” Biden said to staffers at his campaign office in Tampa.
Problem is biden has never driven an 18-wheeler.
The White House previously told Fox News that biden riding in a truck in 1973 is the same thing as driving an 18 wheeler.
I wonder how the press would have covered this if Trump had said the same lie... under the same circumstances...
We know the answer.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
RUMINT - There are rumors that the WHO is backing down on some of its more draconian portions of the global pandemic “treaty”. I am very skeptical as the claim has yet to be separately confirmed by other sources. To remove those portions, such as Article 13A in the pandemic treaty. This would have forced countries to submit to the rules and demands of the WHO. There has been very little global push back on a national level to the juggernaut proposals. Japan noted some protests, as to vocal elements in the US and elsewhere. Nothing to the extent that would threaten the adoption of this measure. So handle reports about any drastic changes to the WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ at arms length for now.
***
The following fits into a number of categories, but IMHO fits into the overall globalism efforts -
The IRS announcement that it will soon be deploying artificial intelligence (AI) software to enforce the U.S. tax code has raised concerns among cyber experts that without proper oversight, the new technology could be weaponized against conservative groups.
In remarks made April 17 at the UiPath on Tour: Public Sector event in Washington, IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel announced the agency would be utilizing the tools to better assist IRS agents in identifying potential tax cheats.
“Right now, I believe that there are AI solutions that we have not yet leveraged that exist today that can help with some of these basic questions to the benefit of taxpayers,” Mr. Werfel said. “And on the other side of the equation, we are using AI today to do even more to unlock and spot this complexity.”
The government’s implementation of the growing technology will be instrumental in helping the agency uncover the most elaborate tax schemes, according to Mr. Werfel.
https://thelibertydaily.com/expert-warns-irs-could-weaponize-ai-technology-target/
OBSERVATION - No need for the tens of thousands of auditors, AI can handle that in seconds. Many see this as pretty obvious, they are planning to target the middle class. Draconian tax “enforcement” will be one tool the global powers that be will be wielding in the years to come.
SEE ALSO “Economy” on biden’s outrageous tax proposals.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-Hamas protests continue on many US campuses.
- Overnight, University of Minnesota - police broke up a terror camp, arrested and charge students with trespassing. The school is also banning the students from campus for one year.
- Police at USC took out their batons when the protesters turned violent over being expelled from their encampment.
- Texas state troopers were deployed and reportedly made dozens of arrests at the University of Texas at Austin.
- NBC reports that majority at USC protest were not students or even from the area.
- Marxist students stormed back onto the Harvard Lawn. Harvard University has suspended the radical Palestine Solidarity Committee, citing domestic terror activities.
OBSERVATION - With deep pocketed funding and a hard core of likely marxists utilizing a false Hamas/Palestine narrative building on genocidal hate towards Israel, I expect these protests to continue thru at least the end of the weekend. Strong police efforts have put a damper on activities on many campuses.
Very concerning is the report out of the USC protests that a majority of the protestors were not even students or even from the area. Tactic typical of a rent a mob Antifa response that may well be being played at other protest sites.
They left is feeding on the fact that these students are indoctrinated, useful idiots. Yesterday, an interview with two ‘protestors’ went viral when asked what they were protesting about. The first female said she didn’t know, asked her friend who also didn’t know but mumbled something about getting better education.
By the end of this weekend I expect to see if this move has gained traction or will start to burn out. Police arrests have stirred the victim and police brutality memes that the Antifa - bent mobs thrive on. But we’ll have to monitor.
***
The Washington Examiner reports:
Pro-Palestinian groups and journalists are readying a rally to shut down the annual White House Correspondents’ Association dinner Saturday at the Washington Hilton over the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza-Hamas crisis.
“Shut down the White House Correspondents’ Dinner,” one group, the Party for Socialism and Liberation, said in an online message. They are calling for protesters to gather down the street from the hotel two hours before the glitzy dinner begins.
Another group, the Committee to Protect Journalists, is urging a boycott by White House reporters who suspend their arms-length relationship with Biden aides for a night of elbow rubbing at the so-called “nerd prom.”
“The White House Correspondents’ Dinner is an embodiment of media manipulation, trading journalistic ethics for access. For journalists to fraternize at an event with President Biden and Vice President Harris would be to normalize, sanitize, and whitewash the administration’s role in genocide,” said the committee.
OBSERVATION - I find the claims rather interesting. The MSM is one of the most leftist institutions in the US, but apparently not leftist enough. The continuing trend of the hybrid leftist/Pro Hama elements to assault their safe haven suggests that the older school democrats who support Israel are still in a serious scrum with the new progressives. This is one of the major flash points being warned about come this summer’s DNC convention in Chicago.
Economy-
In his 2025 budget proposal, Biden outlined plans to elevate the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to 44.6%. This rate, if enacted, would surpass any seen in over a century, according to Americans for Tax Reform (ATR).
Moreover, the combined federal-state rate could exceed 50% in several states when factoring in state capital gains taxes. For instance, California residents would potentially face a 59% rate, while those in New Jersey, Oregon, Minnesota, and New York could confront rates ranging from 53.4% to 55.3%, according to ATR.
Biden wants to impose a second Death Tax by taking away stepped-up basis when parents die. This would result in a mandatory capital gains tax at death — separate from, and in addition to — the current Death Tax.
Biden’s proposal would tax an asset’s unrealized appreciation at transfer. You mean Junior gets taxed whether or not he sells the business? Essentially, yes. The idea that you could build up your small business and escape death tax and income tax to pass it to your kids is on the chopping block. Biden would levy a tax on unrealized appreciation of assets passed on at death. By taxing the unrealized gain at death, heirs would get hit at the transfer, regardless of whether they sell the asset.”
More analysis at link below.
https://www.atr.org/list-of-tax-hikes-in-bidens-2025-budget/
OBSERVATION - Biden’s plan has been out there for a while, this is just another analysis of the impending disaster - especially should democrats take control of congress and hold the WH.
The US economy is already laboring heavily under the high Fed interest rates that have placed the housing and commercial building markets on near life support. Throw in all the other impacts from their inflation actions and out of control spending and fiscal games, well massive tax increases are almost guaranteed to crash the economy into a depression.
But then that is the goal of biden and the ‘global reset’ crowd.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Eisenhower CSG maintains station in the Red Sea region
USS Roosevelt CSG on station in the S China Sea region.
Carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) is set to depart Naval Station Norfolk, Va., this week for its new homeport in Japan, the Navy announced on Wednesday. George Washington is scheduled to leave Norfolk on Thursday to sail down the coast of the U.S., through the Caribbean Sea and enter the Pacific by rounding Cape Horn at the southern tip of South America.
“George Washington will relieve USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) as the forward-deployed naval forces. Following the transfer, Reagan will head to Washington state for an overhaul before its permanent homeport assignment.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Researchers around the world are growing more uneasy with the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in US dairy cows as the virus continues to make its way into new herds and states. Several experts say the US is not sharing enough information from the federal investigation into the unexpected and growing outbreak, including genetic information from isolated viruses.
To date, the US Department of Agriculture has tallied 32 affected herds in eight states: Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, and Texas. In some cases, the movement of cattle between herds can explain the spread of the virus. But the USDA has not publicly clarified if all the herds are linked in a single outbreak chain or if there is evidence that the virus has spilled over to cows multiple times. Early infections in Texas were linked to dead wild birds (pigeons, blackbirds, and grackles) found on dairy farms. But the USDA reportedly indicated to Stat News that the infections do not appear to be all linked to the Texas cases.
Meanwhile, the USDA also reported that it has evidence that H5N1 from dairy farms has spread back into birds in nearby poultry farms, but how this is happening is also unknown.
While deadly to birds, H5N1 in cows is relatively mild, rarely if ever causing deaths. Milk from sick animals contains high levels of virus, but it is being destroyed. Even if some infected milk makes its way into the milk supply, the Food and Drug Administration is confident that the virus would be killed in the pasteurization process. “Pasteurization has continually proven to inactivate bacteria and viruses, like influenza, in milk,” the agency said in an FAQ Friday. Some experts have called for data confirming this, though.
OBSERVATION - Seems the major concern is expansion of the disease back into poultry. While humans have been infected, the virus has not been lethal. Needs watching in the even mutations (natural or man-directed) increase human infections and generate high death rates. Just in time for the elections - hmmmmmm.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
It has been revealed that Hosue Speaker Mike Johnson apologized to Joe Biden in March following the State of the Union address for “the eye-roll memes that went around the world.”
According to RealClearPolitics, Johnson pulled Biden aside at the Friends of Ireland luncheon to “apologize for the eye-roll memes that went around the world.”
Biden reportedly laughed and told Johnson, “I’m just grateful you didn’t rip my speech up,” referring to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s actions during a Trump State of the Union address.
Johnson replied, “Well, Mr. President, don’t think my friends back home didn’t want me to light it on fire.”
Biden / Harris Watch –
During the rally, an abortion promoter voiced complaints about Florida’s six-week limit for abortions, during which Biden turned his back on his faith and his God and made the sign of the cross. Catholic Vote condemned his disgusting politicization of faith sharing on X, “This. Is. VILE!” They continued, “You cannot be Catholic and support abortion! You cannot invoke GOD and promote Death!”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/absolutely-vile-joe-biden-makes-sign-cross-abortion/
***
An armed U.S. Secret Service agent assigned to Vice President Kamala Harris‘s protective detail fought unarmed with other detail agents on Monday morning. The incident occurred at Andrews AFB, shortly before Harris arrived.
The incident occurred at the Washington, D.C.-area Andrews Air Force Base, before Harris arrived, and after the agent suffered what the Secret Service has characterized as a medical incident. The Washington Examiner is aware of the agent’s name and specific detail responsibilities but is withholding those details for privacy reasons.
The Washington Examiner understands that the agent became aggressive with other agents. When the special agent in charge and a detail shift supervisor attempted to calm the agent, a physical altercation ensued. The agent was handcuffed before being withdrawn from service for medical assessment. Harris was scheduled to arrive at Andrews Air Force Base after the incident.
Rumors are that the Secret Service agent was fast-tracked through the vetting process via DEI protocols
OBSERVATION - Historically, SS agents go thru a very intense and strict vetting process to insure loose screws like this one do not get close access to protectees. If DEI is involved - I at this stage with all the woke policies and actions of the biden WH, it wouldn’t surprise me that one (or more) have bypassed the vetting process.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024
A hack that caused a small Texas town’s water system to overflow in January has been linked to a shadowy Russian hacktivist group, the latest case of a U.S. public utility becoming a target of foreign cyberattacks.
The attack was one of three on small towns in the rural Texas Panhandle. Local officials said the public was not put in any danger and the attempts were reported to federal authorities.
“There were 37,000 attempts in four days to log into our firewall,” said Mike Cypert, city manager of Hale Center, which is home to about 2,000 residents. The attempted hack failed as the city “unplugged” the system and operated it manually, he added.
In Muleshoe, about 60 miles to the west and with a population of about 5,000, hackers caused the water system to overflow before it was shut down and taken over manually by officials, city manager Ramon Sanchez told CNN. He did not immediately respond to phone calls from The Associated Press seeking comment.
OBSERVATION - This is an example of manual overrides to a cyber hack being available. Problem is, manual monitoring is necessary as computer alarms may be disabled by the attack. Impacts from similar but against larger systems could bring chaos for a matter of days before these much larger and complex treatment systems can be stabilized manually. Always good to maintain a stockpile of drinking water in the event of any incident that takes out water supply. Rule of thumb is 1 gallon per person per day. Storage is cheap - 5 gallon water jugs used for camping - cycle water every 6 months or so for freshness.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden is contemplating a new executive order that would give amnesty to over 1 million undocumented immigrants who are married to U.S. citizens but were ineligible for green cards.
Biden is now exploring additional measures to address the issue of undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S. ahead of the 2024 election, the Daily Mail reports.
The “parole in place” program will allow spouses of U.S. citizens who were initially denied citizenship to reside in the country legally.
The program will address the primary reasons for denial, such as repeated illegal entry into the country or forging legal documentation.
Under the program, temporary status would allow immigrants to obtain work permits and establish a pathway toward citizenship.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13340997/joe-biden-amnesty-immigrants-married-citizens.html
OBSERVATION - This is likely only the first of many “amnesty “ EOs that biden may issue prior to the Nov elections. He is seeking to cement the placement of these interlopers in a manner that will deter Trump from deporting.
***
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) today announced the upcoming opening of international field offices in Doha, Qatar, and Ankara, Turkey, to increase capacity for refugee processing, strengthen strategic partnerships, and facilitate interagency cooperation.
USCIS staff will assume responsibility for processing Form I-730, Refugee/Asylee Relative Petition, from State Department consular staff, assist with certain fraud detection-related activities, and provide other limited services. Services at both locations will be available only by appointment. USCIS will update the International Immigration Offices webpage to include information about the field offices, services and appointments.
With the opening of the Doha Field Office on May 7, 2024, and the Ankara Field Office on May 9, 2024, USCIS will have 11 international field offices. Other international field offices include Beijing; Guangzhou, China; Guatemala City; Havana; Mexico City; Nairobi, Kenya; New Delhi; San Salvador, El Salvador; and Tegucigalpa, Honduras.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/04/24/us-opening-refugee-intake-centers-in-middle-east-n3787132
OBSERVATION - Not content at the massive inflow from the borders, it appears that the regime is streamlining the illegal immigration process so they can just fly into the US, rather than into central America and work their way north.
North/South Korea –
There are reports that North Korea has warned the United States that if a new version of sanctions are introduced against the DPRK..” they will conduct powerful practical actions that the United States are afraid of. “
They referenced the 2017 sanction resolution and how they conducted a more powerful nuclear test not long after..
OBSERVATION - NK rhetoric and actions have been on the rise recently. In this latest statement, NK appears to be building the case to potentially justify another nuclear test of some sort. Such a test has been on observers / analysts radar for well over a year now.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
General Sergei Shoigu, an ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, has chillingly declared that Russia will “increase the intensity of attacks” on British and allied weapons supplied to Ukraine.
General Sergei Shoigu, an ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, has chillingly declared that Russia will “increase the intensity of attacks” on British and allied weapons supplied to Ukraine.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia has vetoed a resolution at the UN Security Council calling on all countries to prevent an arms race in outer space.
The draft resolution, put forward by the US and Japan, sought to reaffirm a principle already set out in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.
The US has warned that Russia is believed to be developing a space-based, anti-satellite nuclear weapon.
Russia said it was “firmly committed” to the existing treaty.
The draft, put forward on Wednesday, called on “all States, in particular those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the objective of the peaceful use of outer space and of the prevention of an arms race in outer space.”
It also called on countries to uphold the Outer Space Treaty, under which all parties agreed “not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction”.
Of the council’s 15 members, 13 voted in favour, while Russia - one of five permanent members with a veto - voted against and China abstained.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68894500
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Brutal fighting continues on the eastern Ukraine front.
The US has secretly shipped long-range ATACMS to Ukraine. Ukraine has already used them twice on Russian positions inside occupied Ukraine. US to send more in the $1bn package Biden just greenlit
Outlook —
Artillery ammo and replacement ADA missiles are key to Ukraine being able to stabilize the front. The question is how quickly will US supplies reach the front and how effective will Russian interdiction of those supplies be. Currently Russia has the edge.
Long range ATACMS will not by themselves turn the tide, but will put hurt on Russian HQ, logistics and air bases throughout the theatre. Along with more British cruise missiles, Ukraine may well start an even more aggressive deep strike campaign. Whether or not this includes taking out the Kersch Bridge is not certain at this time as Russia has established rail lines to support the fight in eastern Ukraine whereas the bridge supports operations in southern Ukraine / Crimea and would only be critical should Ukraine launch a major effort to retake that area.
Also noting a lot more Russian nuclear saber rattling directed towards NATO countries. Escalate to deescalate in progress again.
Belarus -
Lukashenka says probability of incidents on the border with Ukraine is “quite high”, adds that around 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers deployed near the border.
“There will be no aggression against Poland from the territory of Belarus. “We don’t need this””
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hama released a video of Israeli-American hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin.
- IDF increasing actions in preparation for the Rafah operation.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Egypt asked Israel to engage in negotiations again in exchange for freezing the attack on Rafah
***
Hamas leader Khalil Al-Hayya - “We will not back down from our demands for a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza”
***
Hamas on Wednesday released a propaganda video showing Israeli-American hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin, who has not been seen since he was kidnapped during the terrorist group’s attacks on Israel on Oct. 7.
Goldberg-Polin, 23, identified himself as an Israeli in the video and commented he had been held hostage for “nearly 200 days,” an indication the video was recorded recently, according to The Times of Israel.
The video, which runs almost three minutes long, shows Goldberg-Polin asking the Israeli government to bring the hostages home.The young man is missing his left arm from the elbow down. He lost his limb when Hamas terrorists attacked the Supernova rave in the Negev desert in the early hours of Oct. 7. Video from the onslaught showed Goldberg-Polin’s arm was blown off when Hamas terrorists threw hand grenades into a shelter where he and others tried to hide.
***
Hamas and their supporters are claiming that Israel conducted field executions at the Nasser Medical Complex and buried the bodies in a mass grave.
The IDF denied the “completely baseless” claim and highlighted that the Palestinians had dug and buried individuals in the mass graves prior to and during the IDF’s operation in the region.
Hamas terrorists were using the hospitals as their place of operations, with the IDF arresting hundreds of its operatives at the locations.
The IDF further noted that based on intelligence, they had searched the mass graves in a “targeted” and “respectful” manner in an effort to locate Israeli hostages who may have been buried there.
***
Foreign Minister Israel Katz accused United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres of standing “shoulder to shoulder with the rapists and murderers of Hamas” for declining to include the terror group in a report published Tuesday on organizations suspected by the UN of committing acts of sexual violence during conflict.
The document, titled “Conflict-related sexual violence,” and published as a “Report of the Secretary-General,” noted there is evidence that sex crimes were committed during the Palestinian terror group Hamas’s devastating October 7 attack on Israel, but did not specifically attribute responsibility to Hamas.
The ministry elaborated in the statement that Guterres ignored “the plethora of testimony and evidence that was collected and then included in the report of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Airplanes launched a series of raids on areas near the Palestinian-Egyptian border south of Rafah.
News reports of Israeli tanks and tactical bulldozers moving towards the Gaza border at Rafah amid renewed reports of the Rafah operation being “imminent”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF conducted a significant number of air strikes on S Lebanon - around 40 - yesterday. Some of the strikes hit Baalbek, deep inside Lebanon, according to local reports
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
-Gallant announces -
“Half of the Hezbollah commanders in south Lebanon have been eliminated… & the other half hide & abandon south Lebanon to IDF operations,”
NOTE - Probably a high level of propaganda in this statement
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Rumint. Iranian Regime has pulled its forces out of Syria after Israel has wrecked them
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM reported that they successfully engaged one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) launched from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas in Yemen over the Gulf of Aden. The ASBM was likely targeting the MV Yorktown, a U.S.-flagged, owned, and operated vessel with 18 U.S. and four Greek crew members.
——— FORECAST ————————-
As noted yesterday, Israeli operations will ebb and flow based on the tactical and strategic situation. The significant air strikes across S Lebanon and even going into the Baalbek region are an example.
Still the estimation is that it may take up to 3 weeks to complete evacuations of Rafah, there are some indicators that Israel may begin operations before that period - as a potential scheme to surprise Hamas. Moving tanks and other equipment to the border and commencing significant air strikes on the southern margins of the town suggest that they will be ready to strike into the town quickly if ordered.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-Hamas protests have spread to more campuses, now approaching a couple dozen. In some instances, police have moved in the same day to clear the encampments. This has sparked cries of police brutality and abuse. In at least two instances, universities have turned on lawn irrigation systems in the middle of the night, soaking protestors and not only driving some away, but denying lawn areas sought by other protestors. In one instance, sprinkler systems at Harvard turned on at 4 in the morning flooding tents on a 32 degree morning.
Far-left extremists stormed the Fashion Institute of Technology in Manhattan to try to occupy it for Gaza. Security later blocked supporters from delivering pizza to protestors.
Emory University saw police clashed with violent Marxists, whose disruptive protest spiraled into anarchy.
Meanwhile, the flagship protest at Colombia continues while “negotiations” are on going, though there are reports that the university is looking to go to the police to have the protests stopped,
These protests are morphing more and more into a dangerous hybrid of potentially violent intent. Over the past few days, the BLM / white racist aspect has clamped on by saying that not only should Jews be killed, but all whites as well (Khymani James, Colombia protest leader ) hinting of a growing BLM aspect. Antifa elements taking charge to with training and tactics seen before. One example I saw was the characteristic umbrella shield at the front lines as police moved to clear out an area. More and more, these protest movements are shifting to an anti-American, anti white foundation with a covering of pro-hamas, even pro Hezbollah front.
So far the protests have largely been limited to college campuses. If allowed to continue, these will grow and eventually spill out onto the streets in a greater manner. Lots of outside money is being poured into supporting these protests and out side agitators flocking in as in 2020 for the hopes of more chaos. These campus bases could serve as safe havens for the leaders of outside protest and riots.
Greater demands will be placed on political parties and candidates over support to Israel and this may be the initial form of violent actions against political events in the coming months. I can also expect expanded April 15 style road blockages as this movement attempts to grow.
As of right now, this ‘movement’ does not appear to be losing traction and weak kneed campus presidents in some cases are only facilitating the furtherance of these protests.
In my mind, still too early to discern the path these protests will take prior to the Nov elections. I think the ultimate goal of the puppet masters is to generate 2020 Floyd style riots but may need an incident to spark it. For you oldies, something like a Kent State incident - false flag - could provide the trigger necessary for massive, extensive riots. Events at both party conventions could also be used as triggers.
Economy-
The latest GDP numbers released Thursday sent shock waves among economist and traders with the data indicating the economy is seriously slowing.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter rose just an anemic 1.6%, while analysts had predicted GDP of 2.4% for the first quarter — a miss of 64% from the estimate.
The GDP contraction suggests a recession could be in the offing. A traditional recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of growth below 2%.
Meanwhile, inflation is still higher than expected.
Personal consumption expenditure inflation for the first three months came in at 3.4%, and core PCE, excluding food and fuel, was 3.7% — far above the Fed’s 2% target.
“This report was the worst of both worlds: Economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, told Bloomberg.
OBSERVATION - These numbers show no sign of improving in the near term, meaning that biden is headed into the election with a weakening economy and rising inflation. Economic concerns are one of the top, if not THE top concerns of voters this cycle.
***
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has issued a grim warning for the direction of the U.S. economy, saying he sees the odds of a “soft landing” as far lower than markets are pricing in while sounding the alarm on a possible bout of 1970s’ style stagflation fueled in part by the Biden administration’s massive deficit spending.
“Don’t get lulled into a false sense of security because today looks okay, tomorrow is going to be okay,” he said. “So just try to separate the two.
OBSERVATION - It looks like the economy is reaching the end of its cycle. Many (including myself) thought it would reach it a lot sooner. This summer could become a lot more bumpy that originally thought.
***
Top American automaker Ford hemorrhaged over a billion dollars on electric vehicles (EV) in the first quarter, leading to massive losses per vehicle.
Ford sold 10,000 vehicles in its EV Model e unit in the first three months of the year, losing $1.3 billion on the line altogether, equating to a loss of $130,000 per vehicle sold, according to data from the company’s first quarter earnings report. Despite the loss on EVs, Ford’s net income was $1.3 billion, selling over a million vehicles with $42.8 billion in revenue in the quarter.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/04/25/ford-loses-1-3-billion-electric-vehicle-line/
OBSERVATION - Ford wisely rejected the 0bama bailouts and profited well. However today isn’t what it was then in the “Before Years” and have been shoved into the bogus climate change wars. Harsh economic realities causing Ford and other auto makers to reassess their plans.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
The evil that was wroth to the world via the Pfizer / Moderna mRNA ‘jab’ continues to become more apparent.
A senior Health Canada official says pharma giant Pfizer made a conscious decision not to advise regulators that its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine contained a DNA sequence from the Simian Virus 40 (SV40).
Health Canada had obtained confirmation two weeks earlier from Pfizer that SV40 DNA sequences were present in its COVID-19 vaccine.
“I understand that there have been internal discussions at CBER [Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research] regarding the presents [sic] of an SV40 enhancer/promoter sequence, noting that its presence is unrelated to the purpose of the Pfizer’s plasmid as a transcription template for their mRNA COVID-19 vaccine,” wrote Dr. Smith.
“Pfizer has communicated to us recently, that they apparently chose not to mention this information to EMA, FDA or HC at the time of their initial or subsequent submissions.”
Mr. McKernan, a genomics expert, had found quantities of DNA in the mRNA shots above the regulatory threshold set out by the health agencies. Dr. Smith wrote that the study had resulted in “questions coming to agencies.”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/pfizer-sv40-sequence-covid-shots-health-canada/5855583
OBSERVATION - Some of the discussion in the article also refers to the growing link between the jab, possibly due to this DNA contamination, and the rapid growth in cancers, particularly the “turbo” cancers of today.
The evil brought to the world by the jab just keeps getting worse and worse and the so called medical ‘experts’ knew full well of the potential side effects.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Yesterday, SCOTUS heard oral arguments on former President Donald Trump’s presidential immunity claim. General impression is that it went well for Trump.
Illegal Immigration –
A 51 percent majority of Americans, including 42 percent of Democrats, are in favor of mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Former President Donald Trump has promised to bring such policies in the US should he be elected to a second term in office.
68 percent of Republicans and 46 percent of Independents are also in favor of mass deportations, according to the poll reported on by the outlet.
32 percent of respondents in the survey said that Biden’s administration is the “most responsible” for the influx of illegal immigrants.
Additionally, 30 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of Republicans say they would end birthright citizenship in the country altogether, a right that has its foundation in the 14th Amendment.
OBSERVATION - Could equally post this under “Political Front”. Along with the economy, illegals in the country is near the top of many citizen’s concerns. In many instances it appears that biden has over played his hand on this issue, potentially losing some dark blue areas of the country to Trump. Poll numbers maybe being taken seriously by the regime given the recent pivots to project a more coherent and proactive border ‘policy’, since repetitive claims of no border problem have crashed and burned in the public spotlight.
***
In February, the Tucson, Ariz., sector was the busiest border sector for illegal migrant crossings. As of the first half of April, however, the San Diego Sector has reportedly taken that unenviable top spot from Tucson. And considering how thoroughly woke and destructive Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) is, the migrants can be pretty sure that the state government will do nothing about the crisis.
In 2023, the Rio Grande Valley and Del Rio Sectors were alternating for the sectors with the highest numbers of apprehensions, Breitbart explained. But when Texas and Mexico both began to take action on the border, the never-ending flood of illegals moved west. First, the Tucson Sector took the top spot, as noted above, and now it’s San Diego.
OBSERVATION - Now the numbers are starting to show the success of border fence construction and enforcement. This shift also reduces the pressure on the TX border, a further help to enforcement.
China –
US Sec State Blinken met with Xi yesterday. China was frigidly cold in its reception for such a diplomatic visit - no one met him at the airport. A disrespect of the highest order that China could given. Xi tolerated the visit.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia will make NATO nuclear weapons in Poland one of its primary targets if they are deployed there, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov declared today in the latest escalation of tensions between Moscow and Europe.
The comments came after Polish President Andrzej Duda on Monday said his nation would be ready to host Western nukes, given Russia’s decision to station intercontinental ballistic missiles in neighbouring Belarus late last year.
‘Our patience is not limitless,’ Ryabkov said. ‘If Poland takes the path of further escalation - these verbal games with nuclear weapons - then it means there will be a further round of tension.
Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov also responded to Duda’s declaration, stating that Russia’s defence ministry will ‘analyse the situation... and take all the necessary retaliatory steps to guarantee our safety’.
Amid the rising tensions, Russian ally Belarus moved combat-ready troops closer to the border with Poland on Thursday ‘with a readiness of three hours’, according to President Lukashenko - who warned exchanging blows could lead to ‘apocalypse’.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Brutal fighting continues on the eastern Ukraine front. Russian forces are pressing to secure its northern and southern flanks at the Ocheretyne break thru. The penetration is dangerously extended for Russia. However, Russian forces are making progress there particularly due to the lack of Ukraine artillery fire.
In addition to the fight at Ocheretyne, Russia continues to make small gains along the Bakhmut and Avdiivka fronts.
The lack of Ukraine artillery is particularly noticeable in the drop in the number of artillery attacks on Russia occupied Donetsk.
Outlook —
The Ocheretyne break thru continues to cause problems for Ukraine as Russia is expanding the shoulders. Combined with Avdiivka and Bakhmut, still a tight situation they’ve gotten themselves into.
So far it seems Russia has learned some important lessons and leadership has improved to be able to take advantage of Ukraine’s mistakes on the front lines. Big turn around from when Russia was continually screwing things up.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The floating dock was attacked.
- Israeli preparation for the Rafah operation are accelerating.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Construction on the US military pier off the coast of Gaza has begun according to the Pentagon. While being inspected by UN officials, the pier was attacked by terrorists causing damage and minor injuries.
Hamas has stated it will attack any outside forces on land or in the sea off shore of Gaza.
***
Leaders of 18 nations issued a joint call for Hamas to release all hostages.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Tent city with medical facilities are being set up in a safe are for Rafah civilians. Israel continues to position combat units in jump off points for the operation.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon’s Kafrchouba, as well as additional sites in Markaba, the military says. The strikes came after two anti-tank missiles were launched from Lebanon at the Mount Dov area on the border. The IDF says it shelled the launch sites with artillery and tank shelling. It adds that a rocket launcher in Chebaa was also hit by tank shelling.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Jordanian King - We warn of the danger of the Rafah invasion and stress the necessity of reaching an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Marked increase in combat along the Lebanese border. Israel using it go conduct deep strikes against Hezbollah command and logistics centers.
Movement towards the Rafah operation continues, most likely will kick off in the next couple of weeks.
This alte kaker remembers Kent State, where the people shot were behind the cannon fodder, back where the organizers were.
Suddenly no one wanted to be an REMF organizer, safe, well back from the front!
College campus protests pretty much died that day...
Is my memory flawed?
It put a damper on things as both sides had to step back for a moment
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Activists with the UW Progressive Student Union (UWPSU) announced they are postponing Thursday’s “UW Palestine encampment” because there were too many white students involved. The group received criticism for not including Muslim and Arab students in the organizing. And now you have warring factions of extremists quibbling over who will get credit for demonizing Jews and Israel.
Andy Ngo reports via ‘X’ -
At a far-left rally for Gaza at George Washington U @GWtweets, an extremist on the microphone says: “There’s only one solution, intifada revolution. We must have a revolution so we can have a socialist reconstruction of the United States of America.”
Also he reports that - Columbia University said it has barred encampment leader Khymani James from returning to campus after it re-emerged that he had recently said that “Zionists, white supremacists” should all be killed. The university is ambiguous over whether he was temporarily suspended or expelled. James says he is being targeted for being black and queer.
OBSERVATION - Over the past few days, the shift in a lot of the rhetoric coming out of these pro-hamas camps is one of marxist revolution with a coating of pro-Hamas glaze. Proportionately, Antifa elements are taking more and more charge of the protest operations. This is particularly true in Antifa strongholds and the protests at Portland U and Washington U. Leftist redefining of terms and words of the Hamas / Hezbollah bleat against Israel and jews are now reflecting the marxist takeovers of the protests. In one instance the call for intifada in the US to over throw it and replace it with a socialist govt.
At the pro-Hamas encampment at Humboldt / Cal Poly, extremists are expanding their Antifa-style occupation by building barricades and checkpoints, like at CHAZ of 2020. Similar barriers and physical blocking / removal of non-protest sanctioned journalists and reporters from protest areas have become more aggressive. These tactics are equivalent to those at the CHAZ in Seattle in 2020.
Observers such as Forward Observer are noting that internet channels that have been quiet pretty much since the end of the Floyd riots have surged in activity, listing how to defend protest sites, methods of resistance and numerous related tactics seen during the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020. With it are recruiting efforts for the hard leftist affiliated groups.
Mixing in are increasing elements of BLM, as noted above with the George Washington U cancelation - due to not enough black participation. Calls for violence against whites are being placed next to genocidal calls for the elimination of Israel - essentially saying they are one in the same.
The corrupting of these college protests by elements of the Antifa related left indicates that the ultimate effort may well be to replicate the Floyd style riots of 2020. How much traction the effort will gain using the cover of pro-hamas protests is still uncertain at this moment. It does seem these hard leftist/Antifa elements are seeking an event - like Floyd - to trigger violence on a much broader, national level and may see some way to use these pro-hamas actions to facilitate that.
There is still a couple months before the Democrat convention - that is the important event that may mark even greater efforts to generate a riot provoking event to take things to the next level.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Trump’s NYC trial continues to dominate much of the MSM’s attention.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden claims he “got arrested standing on the porch with a Black family” during the civil rights movement
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 of 9 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 8 of 9 Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles, 1 of 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 6 of 8 Kaliber cruise missiles. Russia also launched 2 S-300 missiles and 4 Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles. Three Kalibr missiles were reportedly launched from a submarine in the Black Sea.. Logistical / rail road targets in central and western Ukraine were reportedly one of the major target sets.
Ukrainian Energy company DTEK says 4 DTEK power stations in central and western Ukraine were attacked overnight by Russia, there are casualties and damage
Explosions were reported at the refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani of Krasnodar Krai. Main processing unit damaged as result of drone attack at Ilskiy refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani and airfield in Kuschevskaya town.
Kamikaze drones hit a warehouse of control and correction modules for aerial bombs at the military airfield in the town of Kuschevskaya of Krasnodar Krai
Outlook —
The Ocheretyne break thru north of Avdiivka continues to press Ukraine defenses. Some analysts suggest that it may force shifting of some of the Ukraine forces from the south to confront the break thru.
Russia’s unleashing a mixed attack overnight, utilizing various missiles, seizing a moment when Ukraine’s air defense is lacking. Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries and storage, keeping the pressure on a large weak area of Russia economy and war support. I expect Russia to potentially step up its missile campaign to extract the most damage before Ukraine can significantly reconstitute their air defense network.
The Adviivka - Ocheretyne area will continue to be a key battle along with Russian efforts to capture Chazvi Yar near Bakhmut. Russian forces are maintaining the initiative in both areas.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
“Axios” reports that Israel made clear to the Egyptian security delegation that it is ready to give a final chance to reach a deal regarding the detainees before the Rafah operations kicks off.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army reports that it eliminated the leader of the Islamic Group in Lebanon, Musab Khalaf, in an air strike when his vehicle was targeted in the Beqaa Valley. The strike is deeper inside Lebanon than the usual Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.
Israeli Army Radio reports that 30 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards Mount Hermon and the Shebaa Farms
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command has confirmed that the Panamanian-Flagged and British-Owned Oil Tanker, M/T Andromeda Star was struck earlier today by at least 1 Houthi launched anti-ship ballistic missile, while the ship was transiting the Southern Red Sea; the ship suffered damage, though it doesn’t seem to be severe with the Andromeda Star continuing her Journey.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkish President Erdogan - “The butcher Netanyahu has to be brought to justice.” “Right now our people are engaged in a joint effort with South Africa at the International Court of Justice.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel’s promise to try one more time to negotiate a ceasefire/hostage release agreement is more a PR move to fill-in the reporting gap to cover Israeli efforts to have non-combatants evacuate Rafah. It is doubtful that Hamas will engage in any honest negotiations as it appears they are falling back on the old ploy of further threatening the lives of the few hostages they still control to deter Israeli operations. More armor and other equipment continue into staging areas opposite Rafah,i ndicating that time is running out for Hamas in Rafah.
Israel continues to surgically strike and take out senior Hezbollah and other terror leaders. The skills to provide actionable intel on these leaders in civilian cars is of the highest order, and shows just how deeply and throughly the Israeli intel network in Lebanon is. Seems that every couple of days lately Hezbollah are losing one or more. These kind of attacks disrupt the elements they are in charge of as secondary leaders have to work to reestablish their credibility to the underlings and operations. This also leaves less experienced leaders in charge, more likely to make major mistakes when under pressure.
Mexico -
Reports that the Mexican president is trying to work our a deal with some of the cartels to reduce levels of violence.
Venezuela -
Establishment and enlargement of bases near Guyana is showing rapid success, creating additional fears that Venezuela may soon move to capture the western half of Guyana.
Black Swans -
Yesterday’s massive tornado outburst should serve as warning to be prepared for other threats to the country. If you live in tornado country- get your ducks in a row now.
The implications of a massive natural disaster superimposed on the current political and economic situation in our country pose a great, undefined threat. Two target areas of an disaster that could severely affect the security of our country would be if the “big one” hit kalifornia or if the Cascadia fault zone triggers. The majority of the population west of the Mississippi River are concentrated in urban areas that quakes from these two sources would devastate. The loss of life from the immediate shock and from later conditions would be staggering. Destruction of infrastructure immense and the costs of rebuild would bankrupt insurance companies and govt at all levels.
Try as we may, we cannot forecast when the next big one will occur. We can identify potential regions from history and current geological data, but that is the best one can do. The thoughts of the impact of such an event is concerning beyond measure. So if you live in the left coast region in one of these zones make sure your preparations are ready now - you won’t get a warning.
>The corrupting of these college protests by elements of the Antifa related left indicates that the ultimate effort may well be to replicate the Floyd style riots of 2020.
I think you’ve misread this one. This was from the beginning their attempt to recreate 2020 election disruption by rioting.
Maybe the FBI should STOP baiting young conservative men and start going after terrorists who want to destroy our country. By definition 'long wolves' are a waste of time to investigate. But ME terrorists and Chinese military units crossing our border should be looked at.
As GOPj insightfully posted:
<><>the Biden FBI should STOP baiting young conservative men
<><>they should go after the real troublemakers
<><>terrorists who want to destroy our country.
These ‘lone wolves’ are a waste of time.
There’s M/E terrorists and Chinese military units crossing our border who should be looked at.
The actions of the regime are deliberate in the leftward shift and going after the right to pre-silence them is part of that plan
Post a little shorter than usual today as I’ve got some time crunches. Also, don’t expect a post on Wednesday or Thursday - having carpel tunnel surgery on hand/wrist.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Mixed bag on nutz on the pro-Hamas protests overnight
Thousands showed up for the Pro Israel rally in front of Columbia University together with the families of hamas held hostages.
Overnight, state troopers made arrests of those involved in the extremist encampment for Gaza at ASU. An official with the university told 12 News, that most of the individuals that were attempting to set up the encampment were not part of ASU’s student body, nor were they faculty. ASU and the police are using frat boys to destroy the camp at Old Main
At one campus, protestors blocked police vehicles attempting to take arrestees to jail.
NGO on X. “Rose City Antifa, the extremely violent Portland, Ore. cell of Antifa, has been putting out a call for comrades to surge to Portland State to help grow the Gaza encampment there. “
“Free Palestine” protesters surrounded the White House Correspondents Dinner in Washington, DC where Biden was expected to speak
OBSERVATION - Varying responses gaining varied results. The trend I noted yesterday continues, ‘outsiders’ are increasingly flocking to these protests and muscling their way into how they are being run. These outsiders are predominately Antifa et al elements and the seizure of the control is evidenced by CHAZ proven defense tactics and hard leftist over throw of America rhetoric. The attempt is still being made to hide this behind the ‘pro-hamas’ cover.
Columbia - ground zero - is still allowing the protestors to essentially control the campus. No evidence that the school administration is going to change that situation any time soon.
The trend for this week appears to continue to be the same as last. There will be new compounds established on campuses, others will be cleared out by police all the while the leftists will continue to fashion the narrative towards overthrow of the US utilizing redefined anti-Israeli and pro-Hamas terms.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The ground war continues to grind on, with Russia maintaining the initiative. Ukraine still struggles to reestablish defensive positions in the Ocheretyne region. The Russian push against Chaziv Yar seems to have stalled a bit as Ukraine defenses have stiffened and the town is in a very strong position for defense.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 17 drones over Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod and Kaluga regions overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 4 Shahed drones and 1 of 5 unidentified type
Overnight, Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russia’s Kushchyovskaya airbase in Krasnodar Krai.
At least one drone hit the vicinity of the flight line. Russian aircraft have reportedly been damaged, and footage shows a number of destroyed glide bomb kits.
Outlook —
Russia will likely maintain and even step up interdiction of supplies coming in from Poland, especially now that US aid has been renewed. Ukraine receipt of long range ATACAMS is already showing results, hitting important Russian bases that were previously either out of range or too well defended against drones.
Spring rains have so far held off - good new for Russians attempting to maneuver around Ukraine defenses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- increase in actions in Lebanon by Israel and Hezbollah
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
BBC reports that the UK is considering deploying British soldiers in the central parts of the Gaza Strip with the task of moving humanitarian aid into Gaza.
****
The US and Egypt have in recent days increased pressure on the Hamas terrorist organization to accept a hostage deal with Israel to prevent an IDF operation in Rafah, the London-bases Asharq Al-Awsat Arabic newspaper reported.
According to the report, the Egyptian mediators made it clear to Hamas that this was the best deal he could get, and if it was not met, Israel would have the legitimacy to enter Rafah.
It was also reported that Egypt will try to bring about a phased deal so that in its first phase, hostages will be released in exchange for a ceasefire - and issues such as the cessation of hostilities or the control of the day after Gaza - will be postponed to a second phase and will be discussed later.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389123
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
Massive rocket barrage fired from Lebanon towards Meron, video footage from Safed showing many impacts in the area. Israel reports no damage or injuries.
Intensive Israeli airstrikes targeted several villages in southern Lebanon (Tyr Harfa, Maroun al-Ras, and Kounine).
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The French Foreign Minister says he will present proposals to achieve stability in the region and prevent war between Hezbollah and Israel
——— FORECAST ————————-
The operation against Rafah continues to make preparations. I am convinced that it will go off at Israel’s choice and timing. These last ditch hostage/ceasefire efforts lead by Egypt are unlikely to succeed as I suspect that Hamas is getting into jihadi mindset to die for the cause. Hamas demands have been to far out there for Israel to even come close to accepting. Expect Hamas to make false ‘concessions’ and offers in an effort to delay the Rafah as well as trying to structure the PR campaign to try to paint Israel as the evil monster once again - a tactic they’ve used a lot to no avail.
Sadly, I expect the Hamas will simply kill the hostages and record it in a manner to publish during the Rafah operation - for fear and intimidation.
At this stage, the global community are shifting attention to preventing actions against Hezbollah.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
US Department of State reports that Blinken is in Riyadh to discuss efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza that secures the release of hostages as well as work to build lasting peace and security in the region. He’ll also join WEF’s special meeting on global collaboration and a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Campus pro-hamas protests continue with those elements still on campus digging in to deter police as well as to keep (unvetted or non-supportive) journalists out.
Students who’ve been arrested and have been suspended / barred from campus are now facing academic and financial aid blowback (FAFO). Many are pleading for amnesty.
Protesters at Yale University set up a new encampment after a previous one was cleared by police, the student newspaper reported
Rhetoric being spewed at these protest sites continues to shift to the hard left. Although the rallies continue to be filled with the anti-Israel rhetoric and chants, speakers are also using language connected with Marxism, focusing on oppression and oppressors. In some instances the call is to destroy both the Republican and Democrat parties.
In Portland, the protest village is only a pro-hamas feature in name only. Antifa elements have essentially taken it over.
Meanwhile at UCLA, Pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel protesters clashed. The Israeli American Council (IAC) organized the counter-protest. It recently said it had “profound concern” over the antisemitism reported elsewhere, including at Columbia University. The two groups at UCLA remained peaceful until Sunday, Reuters news agency reported, when campus police with batons separated them as they pushed and shoved each other, and traded punches. It was not immediately clear which group broke through the barrier that separated them.
OBSERVATION - The protests are becoming more anti-US radicalized by Antifa affiliated elements. I think that I noted earlier this month, Antifa and the radical socialists have been using these pro-hamas events as recruiting forums, to build up forces for anticipated larger scale rioting this summer/fall. This week may well a make or break period for the occupation forces. Those protests remaining will likely be due to a school administration that condones the activity and keeps police off site - mostly being private Universities and colleges like Colombia. State run schools will likely have the protestors removed with varying degrees of violence. That level of violence likely will be based on the degree of Antifa support and camp followers they have in place.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Roosevelt making port call in Thailand
USS Eisenhower is in the Eastern Mediterranean.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The RNC is calling for additional secret service support at the Milwaukee convention.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden rates as the least popular president in the 70-year history of the data, according to latest Gallup Poll results released this weekend, trumping the previously lowest-rated presidencies of Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Richard Nixon.
“With about six months remaining before Election Day, Biden stands in a weaker position than any prior incumbent, and thus faces a taller task than they did in getting reelected,” Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones wrote in his Bottom Line analysis.
Combined with this new CNN poll:
- Trump BEATS Biden 49% to 43%
- Majority say Trump’s presidency was a success
Just 39% say Biden’s presidency is a success
OBSERVATION - Remember, don’t bet the farm on these polls, as they are designed to shape public opinion. In this instance, the opinion may be the reported behind the scenes efforts to replace biden. If so, these may be pretty accurate numbers.
Illegal Immigration –
Border Patrol is confirming that San Diego is now the busiest sector along the southern border as the agents witness on average at least 1,000 illegal entries a day. A CBP spokesperson said that one day last week there were more than 2,000 apprehensions.
Illegal immigrants are basically receiving free TSA pre-check after videos reveal the San Diego airport formed a new line specifically for undocumented aliens who don’t have any identification.
The illegal immigrants are reportedly only asked for basic information and their travel destination or where they are coming from is not recorded. As a result, there is no information on where the millions of illegal aliens traveling by plane end up in the U.S.
“Human smugglers have identified California, particularly the San Diego border sector, as the path of least resistance for illegal immigration,” Desmond continued.
In March, there were 33,784 apprehensions in the San Diego Sector. Since the fiscal year began, there have been 185,469.
OBSERVATION - In the ‘Before Years’, the thought of unvetted illegals getting bypasses to get on US airliners to go where they please versus citizens that have to endure the essentially worthless lines and screening by TSA would be unthinkable. The volumes of illegals flying across America is unbelievable.
China –
China launches its 3rd aircraft carrier.
Fujian has started sea trials. It’s China’s first supercarrier and the most advanced aircraft carrier ever built outside of the U.S. The 316 meter long ship is expected to enter service next year.
OBSERVATION - This is a major step towards modern carrier. Still fuel oil powered, it has standard catapult system versus the ski jump system on the other two. This will permit fully fueled and fully armed jet aircraft to be launched - extending the range and threat of its forces.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Logistics –
Russia is trying to perfect its Kh-69 stealthy cruise missile, which is an upgrade of the older Kh-59. Kh-69 was still in development throughout 2023, then in April 2024 six of these missiles, launched from a Russian fighter-bomber, were used to destroy a Ukrainian power plant. Ukrainian air defense systems did not detect the incoming Kh-69s because they were launched from Russian aircraft that were on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and, when the missiles entered Ukraine, they were low to the ground and virtually undetectable by Ukrainian ground radar. It would take an aircraft based ground surveillance radar, like the one carried by the Americans AWACS aircraft, to spot incoming Kh-69s. Ukraine doesn’t have any AWACS
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/2024042801048.aspx#google_vignette
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine is facing some of the hardest fighting since the start of the war in the easter front areas. “The situation at the front has worsened,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said in a Facebook post Sunday.
Ukrainian troops had “retreated” westwards to new defensive lines in a section of the front that runs past the city of Donetsk, controlled by pro-Russian forces since 2014.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Novobakhmutivka village, Semenivka village, west to Avdiyivka.
It is estimated that from recent Russian missile attacks Ukrainian Energy Grid has Lost upwards of 80% of its Thermal Power Capacity as well as over 30% of its Hydroelectric Power Capacity.
Outlook —
The Ocheretyne break through continues to get worse and worse for Ukraine as Russia has shifted a significant force to exploit the success there. The depth of penetration is beyond Ukraine secondary lines of defense. Advance is persistent and even if Ukraine manages to stop it and restabilize the lines, it will cause severe problems in the future.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- ICC threatening Israeli leadership.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is preparing arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials for alleged war crimes, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — a revelation that has drawn silence, if not acceptance, from the Biden administration.
Sources told The New York Times the charges stem from Israel preventing delivery of humanitarian aid — which Israeli officials have said they fear just winds up in the hands of Hamas terrorists amid the war started by Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attacks.
Netanyahu reportedly is on the list of Israeli government officials to be issued ICC arrest warrants.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/icc-hamas-terrorists/2024/04/28/id/1162721/
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed, however, on Friday that no ruling by the ICC would impact Israel’s right to self-defense against Hamas and other terrorist militias.
“Under my leadership, Israel will never accept any attempt by the International Criminal Court in The Hague to undermine its basic right to defend itself,” Netanyahu stated.
OBSERVATION - Absolutely no investigation or proposed war crimes effort against the leadership of Hamas who attacked Israel in violation of a cease fire at the time, slaughtering over 1000 civilians, kidnapping a couple hundred individuals from infants to elderly - killing many of them and refusing the Red Cross visitation.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza. Bombing and artillery strikes concentrated in N, Central and S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
About 30 missiles were fired from southern Lebanon towards Kiryat Shmona. IDF responded with artillery and air strikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command announced earlier tonight that it’s forces had successfully intercepted 5 drones over Western Yemen, that were launched by the Houthi.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Prime Minister: The Rafah invasion will complicate the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Considerable international interest in these last ditch hostage release / ceasefire talks in Egypt. Hamas indicated they are interested - but that is most likely a delaying tactic to interfere with the impeding Rafah operation. Most of the Israeli offers have been made in the past and have been rejected by Hamas.
Iranian rhetoric towards Israel has come down several notches following the Israeli missile strike. Israel’s success here, combined with the ongoing, successful Israel targeting of senior Hezbollah and in some instances IRGC linked officers in Lebanon may have them rethinking strategy. Israel is not playing by the rules they’ve played by in the past - and Iran/Hezbollah may be trying to rethink things. Meanwhile, Israel continues to bleed Hezbollah to death by a thousand cuts.
Bottom line is I expect Hamas to try a bunch more PR stunts, like the video of the captured Israeli to try to sway opinions during the ‘negotiations’. I also expect Israel to continue to take out Hezbollah leadership and key sites.
Reminder - no post tomorrow or Thursday - carpel tunnel surgery. May be limited for a while after that for recovery.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations have agreed to eliminate all coal-fired power plants by 2035.
The countries that are members of the Group of Seven (G7) are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as the European Union.
This declaration was made by Andrew Bowie, a UK minister at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, during an interview in Turing, Italy.
This agreement will not affect China or India. China has the most coal-fired power plants in the world with 1,142 operational plants, and the highest installed capacity of coal power plants with 1,108.91 gigawatts. It is also the largest climate polluter in the world.
India has the second-most coal power plants, with approximately 285 active plants, and the United States has 240 active plants.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/breaking-g7-countries-including-united-states-shut-down/
OBSERVATION - This is all about power - no pun intended. Loss of power will disrupt the economies of those involved - giving leverage towards the goal of a great economic “reset”.
This is also easily a scheme for population control by killing off the most endangered by loss of power - the elderly and infirm. The rest of the sheeple will fade as well due to poor health, hunger and exposure to environmental conditions. Speaking to the choir - there is absolutely no amount of ‘green’ energy that can be brought on line to make up for the loss of coal generation - and remember, natural gas plants are close behind on the kill list as well.
NOTE - See “Economy” for projected Texas grid power shortage warning.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Activities became violent on occupied campuses as police moved to remove the pro-hamas - Antifa elements.
A shelter-in-place order was issued overnight due to violent protests taking place at Virginia Commonwealth University, where riots are occurring. With The Cabell Library Building and nearby courtyard have been taken over by hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters. Multiple reports of tear gas, flash bangs, and rubber bullets are being deployed by riot police as protesters hurl items like bottles, wooden boards, and other objects at police.
Meanwhile at Colombia, administration is finally taking steps to expel protestors from school attendance by seizing ID cards, but the protestors have remained in their camp. They expanded the occupation overnight by breaking into the Hamilton Hall at barricading doors and breaking windows. Unconfirmed reports that protestors took an employee of Colombia hostage and is holding him in the building. Additional lawn has now also been occupied by protestors. Earlier in the day, after the most recent deadline issued by Colombia U passed, many school facility members, with matching yellow vests linked arms to ‘protect’ the demonstrators from possible police action.
In Austin, police broke out pepper spray and pellets and flash bangs to remove students from their encampment.
At Yale, displaced students rushed to set up another encampment on a different part of the campus from which they were expelled.
Police disband pro-Palestine protest on University of Utah campus. 17 arrest made. A hatchet was recovered and an officer was hit in the head with a bottle.
An anti-Israel encampment was established on the lawn of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, on Monday. The Students for Justice in Palestine chapter of Rutgers University in New Brunswick (SJP Rutgers-NB) announced in a post on X that the encampment had “started” on Monday and was there to stay until “divestment.”
OBSERVATION - These protests have not reached their high water mark but have a few more weeks to go at this intensity.
The current state of these protests/riots is reaching a state that the national guard may well need to be called up to support police who are being overwhelmed and out numbered at some schools. That is a situation that these core Antifa / communists want as they think it would give them better ‘advertisement’ for their goals and operations. It would also provide the potential for the development of an “incident’ that they could capitalize on.
One point that I’m seeing made is that these protests are happening at the end of the school year. Will that take any wind out of the sails, causing some of the fervency of the current riots to lessen with summer? Possibly, but I think that the Antifa related core leading and funding are going to all that they can to maintain the pressure to influence US elections and foreign policy. Hence my concern over some sort of a false flag that allows the riots to project to other locations and hit like the Floyd 2020 riots.
Economy-
The Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) warned that there could be a shortfall of power reserves on the Texas grid this week, and ERCOT may delay or cancel planned power outages.
OBSERVATION - Loss of coal plants providing stable supplies as well as degrading natural gas plants in energy rich Texas is coming back to haunt them. Setting themselves up for another major blackout.
(HT/TIK) Some economists are rising the concerns over the return of ‘stagflation” after the recent GDP and inflation numbers came out. Weakened GDP and rising inflation are the main symptoms.
I am not fully on board with this yet, based on just one report. Economists have been all over the board with warnings of hyperinflation, ‘soft landing’, recession/depression in addition to stagflation. One thing in my mind is certain, the economy is sick (inspire of what the regime claims) and any one of the negative scenarios noted above can easily strike. The recent thoughts towards stagflation are in a way an expected outcome of the current high rates set by the fed - deliberately designed to cool the economy (and associated inflation) down. Instead it is leaching the economy while numerous other factors are pushing prices to start increasing agains. If it does break into full fledged stagflation - the democrat present in DC may find itself much smaller after November as it will be hard to hide the facts from the public - who is already onto current obfuscation by the regime.
‘
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
It appears that DC Democrats are starting to worry about the campus scene, and have turned up the heat. Axios reports:
Columbia University’s board is facing new pressure from a group of House Democrats to “act decisively” and end an ongoing pro-Palestinian encampment on its campus or resign, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Calls for Columbia officials to resign have largely been confined to the GOP, making this a major escalation in Democrats’ rhetoric on the high-profile demonstration.
The group, led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) called to “disband the encampment, and ensure the safety and security of all of its students.”
“If any Trustees are unwilling to do this, they should resign so that they can be replaced by individuals who will uphold the University’s legal obligations under Title VI,” the lawmakers added.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/the-scene-at-columbia-to-be-updated.php
OBSERVATION - Polls are driving the democrat action as the citizenry in general is not favorably inclined towards these protests/riots given the gross anti-semitic nature of the rhetoric combined with the anti-American calls for ‘revolution”. According to recent polling, just 13% of Americans sympathize with Palestine, compared to the 50-70% who said they sympathized with or supported BLM in 2020.
For the democrats, the fissure point of historic support to Israel is hitting the progressive/marxist elements of the democrat party. Such riots are targeting democrats as well as republicans. AOC was heckled at a visit to Colombia for instance.
North/South Korea –
NK is reportedly developing a new short range ballistic missile to target Seoul with as well as to sell to Russia for use against Ukraine.
Phillipines –
A Chinese coast guard vessel collided with a Philippine vessel and sprayed it with a water cannon. Minor damage and injuries to the Philippine ship and crew reported.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
RUMINT –
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is massing 40,000 troops to attempt to attack and capture Kharkiv. Russian’s failed the attempt after the start of war and were eventually driven back to the Russia border.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another heavy day of ground fighting with Russian forces pretty well expanding the Ocheretyne breach to the north and south, securing the flanks.
Explosions were reported across occupied Crimea since the midnight. Unconfirmed reports that these are ATACMS strikes.
Russia deliberately hit the “harry potter” castle in Odesa.
Outlook —
Things are getting real bleak in the Ocheretyne break thru. Russia is expanding the width of the salient and securing it all the while continuing to push west. Concerns growing that Russia could begin to pivot to the north more strongly to cut into Ukraine rear areas / logistic routes for forces on the front lines to the north.
Russia’s development of the ‘turtle’ tanks for now appears to be a significant factor in the counter measures against Ukraine drone strikes. The corrugated metal shed built over the tanks so far effectively blocks most drone srikes against the thin top armor of the tanks. They are not completely invincible, but so far it has been effective.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Deadlines being given to Hamas to agree to the current hostage/ceasefire proposal.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel PM Netanyahu told a group of fallen soldiers’ families that the chance of hostages deal with Hamas is “very low” and accused Hamas with refusing to soften its demands such as complete withdrawal of Israeli army forces from Gaza Strip. He also rejected the possibility of ending the war.
***
Pier-building begins: Construction of the floating JLOTS pier in the Mediterranean is underway. The pier will support USAID and humanitarian partners to receive and deliver humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza. USTRANSCOM and USEUCOM support the movement of humanitarian aid
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza. Bombing and artillery strikes concentrated in N, Central and S Gaza.
***
The IDF Chief of Staff reportedly approved plans for a major operation into Rafah during a meeting with the IDF Southern Command commander and division and brigade commanders.
***
Israeli officials have stated that they will give Hamas between 48-72 Hours to respond to the current ceasefire deal or else the ground invasion of Rafah will move forward as planned.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between IDF and Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
Confrontations broke out between rioters and soldiers around the military checkpoint in the Shuafat camp before dawn today
——— FORECAST ————————-
Situation in the north against Hezbollah will continue to be volatile as levels of fighting ebb and flow based largely upon Israeli strikes on senior Hezbollah and IRGC leadership.
IDF is getting closer to kicking off the ground operation into Rafah. The threat to Hamas of 48 - 72 hours marks the earliest operations could kick off. It is in Hamas’s interests to delay this for as long as possible. Increasing evidence that Hamas has either killed or lost control of virtually all the remaining hostages is coming to light. Earlier, Hamas said it couldn’t pull 40 together for an exchange, now it is doubtful that they can even get 30. Hamas now has virtually no hostage cards to play to effectively delay the israeli operation.
Israeli tactics have not been announced - for good reason. However, i think that Israel may first move northward along the Gaza/Egypt border to block both Hamas and refugee movement into Egypt - a major concern of Egypt. Recently IAF has been hitting that zone in probable battlefield preparation strikes. The main search and destroy element would then deploy straight across the Israeli / Gaza border moving northward where other Israeli forces facilitating civilian movement out of Rafah can interdict any Hamas elements trying to flee in that direction as well.
Going back to Hezbollah and Lebanon, it is being reported that Israel has gotten its logistics tail ready for the eventual conflict with Hezbollah. Unless Hezbollah launches a preemptive strike to try to support the last stand of Hamas, I expect that Israel will not turn north for at least two months after the initiation of the Rafah operation - the amount of time Israel has estimated it will take to finish the search and destroy operation. This would free up resources from Gaza for use in the north.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Israeli has allegedly carried out an operation in Tehran targeting and eliminating an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) operative involved in plotting attacks against Jews in Germany, anti-regime media outlet Iran International reported Monday, citing its sources. According to the report, the elimination was carried out with a gun.
Mexico -
(FO) Mexico’s longshot presidential challenger is widely said to have won last night’s presidential debate. Xóchitl Gálvez accused ruling Morena Party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum of being a “narco-candidate.” Gálvez remains down in the polls against Sheinbaum, 51%-26%, but may receive a bump after last night’s debate.
OBSERVATION - At current projections, Mexico may well be continuing to facilitate movement of illegals into the US after their elections and continued status quo with narco terror cartels. Increasing sanctions on China have opened opportunities for Mexico to host new factories and increase local employment - which could take some pressure off their economy.
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