Post a little shorter than usual today as I’ve got some time crunches. Also, don’t expect a post on Wednesday or Thursday - having carpel tunnel surgery on hand/wrist.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Mixed bag on nutz on the pro-Hamas protests overnight
Thousands showed up for the Pro Israel rally in front of Columbia University together with the families of hamas held hostages.
Overnight, state troopers made arrests of those involved in the extremist encampment for Gaza at ASU. An official with the university told 12 News, that most of the individuals that were attempting to set up the encampment were not part of ASU’s student body, nor were they faculty. ASU and the police are using frat boys to destroy the camp at Old Main
At one campus, protestors blocked police vehicles attempting to take arrestees to jail.
NGO on X. “Rose City Antifa, the extremely violent Portland, Ore. cell of Antifa, has been putting out a call for comrades to surge to Portland State to help grow the Gaza encampment there. “
“Free Palestine” protesters surrounded the White House Correspondents Dinner in Washington, DC where Biden was expected to speak
OBSERVATION - Varying responses gaining varied results. The trend I noted yesterday continues, ‘outsiders’ are increasingly flocking to these protests and muscling their way into how they are being run. These outsiders are predominately Antifa et al elements and the seizure of the control is evidenced by CHAZ proven defense tactics and hard leftist over throw of America rhetoric. The attempt is still being made to hide this behind the ‘pro-hamas’ cover.
Columbia - ground zero - is still allowing the protestors to essentially control the campus. No evidence that the school administration is going to change that situation any time soon.
The trend for this week appears to continue to be the same as last. There will be new compounds established on campuses, others will be cleared out by police all the while the leftists will continue to fashion the narrative towards overthrow of the US utilizing redefined anti-Israeli and pro-Hamas terms.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The ground war continues to grind on, with Russia maintaining the initiative. Ukraine still struggles to reestablish defensive positions in the Ocheretyne region. The Russian push against Chaziv Yar seems to have stalled a bit as Ukraine defenses have stiffened and the town is in a very strong position for defense.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 17 drones over Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod and Kaluga regions overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 4 Shahed drones and 1 of 5 unidentified type
Overnight, Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russia’s Kushchyovskaya airbase in Krasnodar Krai.
At least one drone hit the vicinity of the flight line. Russian aircraft have reportedly been damaged, and footage shows a number of destroyed glide bomb kits.
Outlook —
Russia will likely maintain and even step up interdiction of supplies coming in from Poland, especially now that US aid has been renewed. Ukraine receipt of long range ATACAMS is already showing results, hitting important Russian bases that were previously either out of range or too well defended against drones.
Spring rains have so far held off - good new for Russians attempting to maneuver around Ukraine defenses.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- increase in actions in Lebanon by Israel and Hezbollah
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
BBC reports that the UK is considering deploying British soldiers in the central parts of the Gaza Strip with the task of moving humanitarian aid into Gaza.
****
The US and Egypt have in recent days increased pressure on the Hamas terrorist organization to accept a hostage deal with Israel to prevent an IDF operation in Rafah, the London-bases Asharq Al-Awsat Arabic newspaper reported.
According to the report, the Egyptian mediators made it clear to Hamas that this was the best deal he could get, and if it was not met, Israel would have the legitimacy to enter Rafah.
It was also reported that Egypt will try to bring about a phased deal so that in its first phase, hostages will be released in exchange for a ceasefire - and issues such as the cessation of hostilities or the control of the day after Gaza - will be postponed to a second phase and will be discussed later.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389123
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
Massive rocket barrage fired from Lebanon towards Meron, video footage from Safed showing many impacts in the area. Israel reports no damage or injuries.
Intensive Israeli airstrikes targeted several villages in southern Lebanon (Tyr Harfa, Maroun al-Ras, and Kounine).
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The French Foreign Minister says he will present proposals to achieve stability in the region and prevent war between Hezbollah and Israel
——— FORECAST ————————-
The operation against Rafah continues to make preparations. I am convinced that it will go off at Israel’s choice and timing. These last ditch hostage/ceasefire efforts lead by Egypt are unlikely to succeed as I suspect that Hamas is getting into jihadi mindset to die for the cause. Hamas demands have been to far out there for Israel to even come close to accepting. Expect Hamas to make false ‘concessions’ and offers in an effort to delay the Rafah as well as trying to structure the PR campaign to try to paint Israel as the evil monster once again - a tactic they’ve used a lot to no avail.
Sadly, I expect the Hamas will simply kill the hostages and record it in a manner to publish during the Rafah operation - for fear and intimidation.
At this stage, the global community are shifting attention to preventing actions against Hezbollah.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
US Department of State reports that Blinken is in Riyadh to discuss efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza that secures the release of hostages as well as work to build lasting peace and security in the region. He’ll also join WEF’s special meeting on global collaboration and a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Campus pro-hamas protests continue with those elements still on campus digging in to deter police as well as to keep (unvetted or non-supportive) journalists out.
Students who’ve been arrested and have been suspended / barred from campus are now facing academic and financial aid blowback (FAFO). Many are pleading for amnesty.
Protesters at Yale University set up a new encampment after a previous one was cleared by police, the student newspaper reported
Rhetoric being spewed at these protest sites continues to shift to the hard left. Although the rallies continue to be filled with the anti-Israel rhetoric and chants, speakers are also using language connected with Marxism, focusing on oppression and oppressors. In some instances the call is to destroy both the Republican and Democrat parties.
In Portland, the protest village is only a pro-hamas feature in name only. Antifa elements have essentially taken it over.
Meanwhile at UCLA, Pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel protesters clashed. The Israeli American Council (IAC) organized the counter-protest. It recently said it had “profound concern” over the antisemitism reported elsewhere, including at Columbia University. The two groups at UCLA remained peaceful until Sunday, Reuters news agency reported, when campus police with batons separated them as they pushed and shoved each other, and traded punches. It was not immediately clear which group broke through the barrier that separated them.
OBSERVATION - The protests are becoming more anti-US radicalized by Antifa affiliated elements. I think that I noted earlier this month, Antifa and the radical socialists have been using these pro-hamas events as recruiting forums, to build up forces for anticipated larger scale rioting this summer/fall. This week may well a make or break period for the occupation forces. Those protests remaining will likely be due to a school administration that condones the activity and keeps police off site - mostly being private Universities and colleges like Colombia. State run schools will likely have the protestors removed with varying degrees of violence. That level of violence likely will be based on the degree of Antifa support and camp followers they have in place.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Roosevelt making port call in Thailand
USS Eisenhower is in the Eastern Mediterranean.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The RNC is calling for additional secret service support at the Milwaukee convention.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden rates as the least popular president in the 70-year history of the data, according to latest Gallup Poll results released this weekend, trumping the previously lowest-rated presidencies of Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Richard Nixon.
“With about six months remaining before Election Day, Biden stands in a weaker position than any prior incumbent, and thus faces a taller task than they did in getting reelected,” Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones wrote in his Bottom Line analysis.
Combined with this new CNN poll:
- Trump BEATS Biden 49% to 43%
- Majority say Trump’s presidency was a success
Just 39% say Biden’s presidency is a success
OBSERVATION - Remember, don’t bet the farm on these polls, as they are designed to shape public opinion. In this instance, the opinion may be the reported behind the scenes efforts to replace biden. If so, these may be pretty accurate numbers.
Illegal Immigration –
Border Patrol is confirming that San Diego is now the busiest sector along the southern border as the agents witness on average at least 1,000 illegal entries a day. A CBP spokesperson said that one day last week there were more than 2,000 apprehensions.
Illegal immigrants are basically receiving free TSA pre-check after videos reveal the San Diego airport formed a new line specifically for undocumented aliens who don’t have any identification.
The illegal immigrants are reportedly only asked for basic information and their travel destination or where they are coming from is not recorded. As a result, there is no information on where the millions of illegal aliens traveling by plane end up in the U.S.
“Human smugglers have identified California, particularly the San Diego border sector, as the path of least resistance for illegal immigration,” Desmond continued.
In March, there were 33,784 apprehensions in the San Diego Sector. Since the fiscal year began, there have been 185,469.
OBSERVATION - In the ‘Before Years’, the thought of unvetted illegals getting bypasses to get on US airliners to go where they please versus citizens that have to endure the essentially worthless lines and screening by TSA would be unthinkable. The volumes of illegals flying across America is unbelievable.
China –
China launches its 3rd aircraft carrier.
Fujian has started sea trials. It’s China’s first supercarrier and the most advanced aircraft carrier ever built outside of the U.S. The 316 meter long ship is expected to enter service next year.
OBSERVATION - This is a major step towards modern carrier. Still fuel oil powered, it has standard catapult system versus the ski jump system on the other two. This will permit fully fueled and fully armed jet aircraft to be launched - extending the range and threat of its forces.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Logistics –
Russia is trying to perfect its Kh-69 stealthy cruise missile, which is an upgrade of the older Kh-59. Kh-69 was still in development throughout 2023, then in April 2024 six of these missiles, launched from a Russian fighter-bomber, were used to destroy a Ukrainian power plant. Ukrainian air defense systems did not detect the incoming Kh-69s because they were launched from Russian aircraft that were on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and, when the missiles entered Ukraine, they were low to the ground and virtually undetectable by Ukrainian ground radar. It would take an aircraft based ground surveillance radar, like the one carried by the Americans AWACS aircraft, to spot incoming Kh-69s. Ukraine doesn’t have any AWACS
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/2024042801048.aspx#google_vignette
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine is facing some of the hardest fighting since the start of the war in the easter front areas. “The situation at the front has worsened,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said in a Facebook post Sunday.
Ukrainian troops had “retreated” westwards to new defensive lines in a section of the front that runs past the city of Donetsk, controlled by pro-Russian forces since 2014.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Novobakhmutivka village, Semenivka village, west to Avdiyivka.
It is estimated that from recent Russian missile attacks Ukrainian Energy Grid has Lost upwards of 80% of its Thermal Power Capacity as well as over 30% of its Hydroelectric Power Capacity.
Outlook —
The Ocheretyne break through continues to get worse and worse for Ukraine as Russia has shifted a significant force to exploit the success there. The depth of penetration is beyond Ukraine secondary lines of defense. Advance is persistent and even if Ukraine manages to stop it and restabilize the lines, it will cause severe problems in the future.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- ICC threatening Israeli leadership.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is preparing arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials for alleged war crimes, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — a revelation that has drawn silence, if not acceptance, from the Biden administration.
Sources told The New York Times the charges stem from Israel preventing delivery of humanitarian aid — which Israeli officials have said they fear just winds up in the hands of Hamas terrorists amid the war started by Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attacks.
Netanyahu reportedly is on the list of Israeli government officials to be issued ICC arrest warrants.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/icc-hamas-terrorists/2024/04/28/id/1162721/
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed, however, on Friday that no ruling by the ICC would impact Israel’s right to self-defense against Hamas and other terrorist militias.
“Under my leadership, Israel will never accept any attempt by the International Criminal Court in The Hague to undermine its basic right to defend itself,” Netanyahu stated.
OBSERVATION - Absolutely no investigation or proposed war crimes effort against the leadership of Hamas who attacked Israel in violation of a cease fire at the time, slaughtering over 1000 civilians, kidnapping a couple hundred individuals from infants to elderly - killing many of them and refusing the Red Cross visitation.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza. Bombing and artillery strikes concentrated in N, Central and S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
About 30 missiles were fired from southern Lebanon towards Kiryat Shmona. IDF responded with artillery and air strikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command announced earlier tonight that it’s forces had successfully intercepted 5 drones over Western Yemen, that were launched by the Houthi.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Prime Minister: The Rafah invasion will complicate the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Considerable international interest in these last ditch hostage release / ceasefire talks in Egypt. Hamas indicated they are interested - but that is most likely a delaying tactic to interfere with the impeding Rafah operation. Most of the Israeli offers have been made in the past and have been rejected by Hamas.
Iranian rhetoric towards Israel has come down several notches following the Israeli missile strike. Israel’s success here, combined with the ongoing, successful Israel targeting of senior Hezbollah and in some instances IRGC linked officers in Lebanon may have them rethinking strategy. Israel is not playing by the rules they’ve played by in the past - and Iran/Hezbollah may be trying to rethink things. Meanwhile, Israel continues to bleed Hezbollah to death by a thousand cuts.
Bottom line is I expect Hamas to try a bunch more PR stunts, like the video of the captured Israeli to try to sway opinions during the ‘negotiations’. I also expect Israel to continue to take out Hezbollah leadership and key sites.