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CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Activists with the UW Progressive Student Union (UWPSU) announced they are postponing Thursday’s “UW Palestine encampment” because there were too many white students involved. The group received criticism for not including Muslim and Arab students in the organizing. And now you have warring factions of extremists quibbling over who will get credit for demonizing Jews and Israel.

Andy Ngo reports via ‘X’ -
At a far-left rally for Gaza at George Washington U @GWtweets, an extremist on the microphone says: “There’s only one solution, intifada revolution. We must have a revolution so we can have a socialist reconstruction of the United States of America.”

Also he reports that - Columbia University said it has barred encampment leader Khymani James from returning to campus after it re-emerged that he had recently said that “Zionists, white supremacists” should all be killed. The university is ambiguous over whether he was temporarily suspended or expelled. James says he is being targeted for being black and queer.

OBSERVATION - Over the past few days, the shift in a lot of the rhetoric coming out of these pro-hamas camps is one of marxist revolution with a coating of pro-Hamas glaze. Proportionately, Antifa elements are taking more and more charge of the protest operations. This is particularly true in Antifa strongholds and the protests at Portland U and Washington U. Leftist redefining of terms and words of the Hamas / Hezbollah bleat against Israel and jews are now reflecting the marxist takeovers of the protests. In one instance the call for intifada in the US to over throw it and replace it with a socialist govt.

At the pro-Hamas encampment at Humboldt / Cal Poly, extremists are expanding their Antifa-style occupation by building barricades and checkpoints, like at CHAZ of 2020. Similar barriers and physical blocking / removal of non-protest sanctioned journalists and reporters from protest areas have become more aggressive. These tactics are equivalent to those at the CHAZ in Seattle in 2020.

Observers such as Forward Observer are noting that internet channels that have been quiet pretty much since the end of the Floyd riots have surged in activity, listing how to defend protest sites, methods of resistance and numerous related tactics seen during the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020. With it are recruiting efforts for the hard leftist affiliated groups.

Mixing in are increasing elements of BLM, as noted above with the George Washington U cancelation - due to not enough black participation. Calls for violence against whites are being placed next to genocidal calls for the elimination of Israel - essentially saying they are one in the same.

The corrupting of these college protests by elements of the Antifa related left indicates that the ultimate effort may well be to replicate the Floyd style riots of 2020. How much traction the effort will gain using the cover of pro-hamas protests is still uncertain at this moment. It does seem these hard leftist/Antifa elements are seeking an event - like Floyd - to trigger violence on a much broader, national level and may see some way to use these pro-hamas actions to facilitate that.

There is still a couple months before the Democrat convention - that is the important event that may mark even greater efforts to generate a riot provoking event to take things to the next level.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Trump’s NYC trial continues to dominate much of the MSM’s attention.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden claims he “got arrested standing on the porch with a Black family” during the civil rights movement

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 of 9 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 8 of 9 Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles, 1 of 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 6 of 8 Kaliber cruise missiles. Russia also launched 2 S-300 missiles and 4 Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles. Three Kalibr missiles were reportedly launched from a submarine in the Black Sea.. Logistical / rail road targets in central and western Ukraine were reportedly one of the major target sets.

Ukrainian Energy company DTEK says 4 DTEK power stations in central and western Ukraine were attacked overnight by Russia, there are casualties and damage

Explosions were reported at the refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani of Krasnodar Krai. Main processing unit damaged as result of drone attack at Ilskiy refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani and airfield in Kuschevskaya town.

Kamikaze drones hit a warehouse of control and correction modules for aerial bombs at the military airfield in the town of Kuschevskaya of Krasnodar Krai

Outlook —

The Ocheretyne break thru north of Avdiivka continues to press Ukraine defenses. Some analysts suggest that it may force shifting of some of the Ukraine forces from the south to confront the break thru.

Russia’s unleashing a mixed attack overnight, utilizing various missiles, seizing a moment when Ukraine’s air defense is lacking. Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries and storage, keeping the pressure on a large weak area of Russia economy and war support. I expect Russia to potentially step up its missile campaign to extract the most damage before Ukraine can significantly reconstitute their air defense network.

The Adviivka - Ocheretyne area will continue to be a key battle along with Russian efforts to capture Chazvi Yar near Bakhmut. Russian forces are maintaining the initiative in both areas.

ISRAEL –

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
“Axios” reports that Israel made clear to the Egyptian security delegation that it is ready to give a final chance to reach a deal regarding the detainees before the Rafah operations kicks off.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army reports that it eliminated the leader of the Islamic Group in Lebanon, Musab Khalaf, in an air strike when his vehicle was targeted in the Beqaa Valley. The strike is deeper inside Lebanon than the usual Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.

Israeli Army Radio reports that 30 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards Mount Hermon and the Shebaa Farms

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

U.S. Central Command has confirmed that the Panamanian-Flagged and British-Owned Oil Tanker, M/T Andromeda Star was struck earlier today by at least 1 Houthi launched anti-ship ballistic missile, while the ship was transiting the Southern Red Sea; the ship suffered damage, though it doesn’t seem to be severe with the Andromeda Star continuing her Journey.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish President Erdogan - “The butcher Netanyahu has to be brought to justice.” “Right now our people are engaged in a joint effort with South Africa at the International Court of Justice.”

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel’s promise to try one more time to negotiate a ceasefire/hostage release agreement is more a PR move to fill-in the reporting gap to cover Israeli efforts to have non-combatants evacuate Rafah. It is doubtful that Hamas will engage in any honest negotiations as it appears they are falling back on the old ploy of further threatening the lives of the few hostages they still control to deter Israeli operations. More armor and other equipment continue into staging areas opposite Rafah,i ndicating that time is running out for Hamas in Rafah.

Israel continues to surgically strike and take out senior Hezbollah and other terror leaders. The skills to provide actionable intel on these leaders in civilian cars is of the highest order, and shows just how deeply and throughly the Israeli intel network in Lebanon is. Seems that every couple of days lately Hezbollah are losing one or more. These kind of attacks disrupt the elements they are in charge of as secondary leaders have to work to reestablish their credibility to the underlings and operations. This also leaves less experienced leaders in charge, more likely to make major mistakes when under pressure.

Mexico -

Reports that the Mexican president is trying to work our a deal with some of the cartels to reduce levels of violence.

Venezuela -

Establishment and enlargement of bases near Guyana is showing rapid success, creating additional fears that Venezuela may soon move to capture the western half of Guyana.

Black Swans -

Yesterday’s massive tornado outburst should serve as warning to be prepared for other threats to the country. If you live in tornado country- get your ducks in a row now.

The implications of a massive natural disaster superimposed on the current political and economic situation in our country pose a great, undefined threat. Two target areas of an disaster that could severely affect the security of our country would be if the “big one” hit kalifornia or if the Cascadia fault zone triggers. The majority of the population west of the Mississippi River are concentrated in urban areas that quakes from these two sources would devastate. The loss of life from the immediate shock and from later conditions would be staggering. Destruction of infrastructure immense and the costs of rebuild would bankrupt insurance companies and govt at all levels.

Try as we may, we cannot forecast when the next big one will occur. We can identify potential regions from history and current geological data, but that is the best one can do. The thoughts of the impact of such an event is concerning beyond measure. So if you live in the left coast region in one of these zones make sure your preparations are ready now - you won’t get a warning.

>The corrupting of these college protests by elements of the Antifa related left indicates that the ultimate effort may well be to replicate the Floyd style riots of 2020.

I think you’ve misread this one. This was from the beginning their attempt to recreate 2020 election disruption by rioting.

Andy Ngo reports via ‘X’ - At a far-left rally for Gaza at George Washington U @GWtweets, an extremist on the microphone says: “There’s only one solution, intifada revolution. We must have a revolution so we can have a socialist reconstruction of the United States of America.”

Also he reports that - Columbia University said it has barred encampment leader Khymani James from returning to campus after it re-emerged that he had recently said that “Zionists, white supremacists” should all be killed.

Maybe the FBI should STOP baiting young conservative men and start going after terrorists who want to destroy our country. By definition 'long wolves' are a waste of time to investigate. But ME terrorists and Chinese military units crossing our border should be looked at.

Post a little shorter than usual today as I’ve got some time crunches. Also, don’t expect a post on Wednesday or Thursday - having carpel tunnel surgery on hand/wrist.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Mixed bag on nutz on the pro-Hamas protests overnight

Thousands showed up for the Pro Israel rally in front of Columbia University together with the families of hamas held hostages.

Overnight, state troopers made arrests of those involved in the extremist encampment for Gaza at ASU. An official with the university told 12 News, that most of the individuals that were attempting to set up the encampment were not part of ASU’s student body, nor were they faculty. ASU and the police are using frat boys to destroy the camp at Old Main

https://thepostmillennial.com/asu-gaza-camp-cleared-69-arrests-made-most-not-students-or-faculty-officials

At one campus, protestors blocked police vehicles attempting to take arrestees to jail.

NGO on X. “Rose City Antifa, the extremely violent Portland, Ore. cell of Antifa, has been putting out a call for comrades to surge to Portland State to help grow the Gaza encampment there. “

“Free Palestine” protesters surrounded the White House Correspondents Dinner in Washington, DC where Biden was expected to speak

OBSERVATION - Varying responses gaining varied results. The trend I noted yesterday continues, ‘outsiders’ are increasingly flocking to these protests and muscling their way into how they are being run. These outsiders are predominately Antifa et al elements and the seizure of the control is evidenced by CHAZ proven defense tactics and hard leftist over throw of America rhetoric. The attempt is still being made to hide this behind the ‘pro-hamas’ cover.

Columbia - ground zero - is still allowing the protestors to essentially control the campus. No evidence that the school administration is going to change that situation any time soon.

The trend for this week appears to continue to be the same as last. There will be new compounds established on campuses, others will be cleared out by police all the while the leftists will continue to fashion the narrative towards overthrow of the US utilizing redefined anti-Israeli and pro-Hamas terms.