Replies

Reminder - no post tomorrow or Thursday - carpel tunnel surgery. May be limited for a while after that for recovery.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations have agreed to eliminate all coal-fired power plants by 2035.

The countries that are members of the Group of Seven (G7) are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as the European Union.

This declaration was made by Andrew Bowie, a UK minister at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, during an interview in Turing, Italy.

This agreement will not affect China or India. China has the most coal-fired power plants in the world with 1,142 operational plants, and the highest installed capacity of coal power plants with 1,108.91 gigawatts. It is also the largest climate polluter in the world.

India has the second-most coal power plants, with approximately 285 active plants, and the United States has 240 active plants.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/breaking-g7-countries-including-united-states-shut-down/

OBSERVATION - This is all about power - no pun intended. Loss of power will disrupt the economies of those involved - giving leverage towards the goal of a great economic “reset”.

This is also easily a scheme for population control by killing off the most endangered by loss of power - the elderly and infirm. The rest of the sheeple will fade as well due to poor health, hunger and exposure to environmental conditions. Speaking to the choir - there is absolutely no amount of ‘green’ energy that can be brought on line to make up for the loss of coal generation - and remember, natural gas plants are close behind on the kill list as well.

NOTE - See “Economy” for projected Texas grid power shortage warning.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Activities became violent on occupied campuses as police moved to remove the pro-hamas - Antifa elements.

A shelter-in-place order was issued overnight due to violent protests taking place at Virginia Commonwealth University, where riots are occurring. With The Cabell Library Building and nearby courtyard have been taken over by hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters. Multiple reports of tear gas, flash bangs, and rubber bullets are being deployed by riot police as protesters hurl items like bottles, wooden boards, and other objects at police.

Meanwhile at Colombia, administration is finally taking steps to expel protestors from school attendance by seizing ID cards, but the protestors have remained in their camp. They expanded the occupation overnight by breaking into the Hamilton Hall at barricading doors and breaking windows. Unconfirmed reports that protestors took an employee of Colombia hostage and is holding him in the building. Additional lawn has now also been occupied by protestors. Earlier in the day, after the most recent deadline issued by Colombia U passed, many school facility members, with matching yellow vests linked arms to ‘protect’ the demonstrators from possible police action.

In Austin, police broke out pepper spray and pellets and flash bangs to remove students from their encampment.

At Yale, displaced students rushed to set up another encampment on a different part of the campus from which they were expelled.

Police disband pro-Palestine protest on University of Utah campus. 17 arrest made. A hatchet was recovered and an officer was hit in the head with a bottle.

An anti-Israel encampment was established on the lawn of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, on Monday. The Students for Justice in Palestine chapter of Rutgers University in New Brunswick (SJP Rutgers-NB) announced in a post on X that the encampment had “started” on Monday and was there to stay until “divestment.”

OBSERVATION - These protests have not reached their high water mark but have a few more weeks to go at this intensity.

The current state of these protests/riots is reaching a state that the national guard may well need to be called up to support police who are being overwhelmed and out numbered at some schools. That is a situation that these core Antifa / communists want as they think it would give them better ‘advertisement’ for their goals and operations. It would also provide the potential for the development of an “incident’ that they could capitalize on.
One point that I’m seeing made is that these protests are happening at the end of the school year. Will that take any wind out of the sails, causing some of the fervency of the current riots to lessen with summer? Possibly, but I think that the Antifa related core leading and funding are going to all that they can to maintain the pressure to influence US elections and foreign policy. Hence my concern over some sort of a false flag that allows the riots to project to other locations and hit like the Floyd 2020 riots.

Economy-

The Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) warned that there could be a shortfall of power reserves on the Texas grid this week, and ERCOT may delay or cancel planned power outages.

OBSERVATION - Loss of coal plants providing stable supplies as well as degrading natural gas plants in energy rich Texas is coming back to haunt them. Setting themselves up for another major blackout.

(HT/TIK) Some economists are rising the concerns over the return of ‘stagflation” after the recent GDP and inflation numbers came out. Weakened GDP and rising inflation are the main symptoms.

I am not fully on board with this yet, based on just one report. Economists have been all over the board with warnings of hyperinflation, ‘soft landing’, recession/depression in addition to stagflation. One thing in my mind is certain, the economy is sick (inspire of what the regime claims) and any one of the negative scenarios noted above can easily strike. The recent thoughts towards stagflation are in a way an expected outcome of the current high rates set by the fed - deliberately designed to cool the economy (and associated inflation) down. Instead it is leaching the economy while numerous other factors are pushing prices to start increasing agains. If it does break into full fledged stagflation - the democrat present in DC may find itself much smaller after November as it will be hard to hide the facts from the public - who is already onto current obfuscation by the regime.

‘

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

It appears that DC Democrats are starting to worry about the campus scene, and have turned up the heat. Axios reports:
Columbia University’s board is facing new pressure from a group of House Democrats to “act decisively” and end an ongoing pro-Palestinian encampment on its campus or resign, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Calls for Columbia officials to resign have largely been confined to the GOP, making this a major escalation in Democrats’ rhetoric on the high-profile demonstration.
The group, led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) called to “disband the encampment, and ensure the safety and security of all of its students.”
“If any Trustees are unwilling to do this, they should resign so that they can be replaced by individuals who will uphold the University’s legal obligations under Title VI,” the lawmakers added.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/the-scene-at-columbia-to-be-updated.php

OBSERVATION - Polls are driving the democrat action as the citizenry in general is not favorably inclined towards these protests/riots given the gross anti-semitic nature of the rhetoric combined with the anti-American calls for ‘revolution”. According to recent polling, just 13% of Americans sympathize with Palestine, compared to the 50-70% who said they sympathized with or supported BLM in 2020.

For the democrats, the fissure point of historic support to Israel is hitting the progressive/marxist elements of the democrat party. Such riots are targeting democrats as well as republicans. AOC was heckled at a visit to Colombia for instance.

North/South Korea –

NK is reportedly developing a new short range ballistic missile to target Seoul with as well as to sell to Russia for use against Ukraine.

Phillipines –

A Chinese coast guard vessel collided with a Philippine vessel and sprayed it with a water cannon. Minor damage and injuries to the Philippine ship and crew reported.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..

RUMINT –
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is massing 40,000 troops to attempt to attack and capture Kharkiv. Russian’s failed the attempt after the start of war and were eventually driven back to the Russia border.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another heavy day of ground fighting with Russian forces pretty well expanding the Ocheretyne breach to the north and south, securing the flanks.

Explosions were reported across occupied Crimea since the midnight. Unconfirmed reports that these are ATACMS strikes.

Russia deliberately hit the “harry potter” castle in Odesa.

Outlook —

Things are getting real bleak in the Ocheretyne break thru. Russia is expanding the width of the salient and securing it all the while continuing to push west. Concerns growing that Russia could begin to pivot to the north more strongly to cut into Ukraine rear areas / logistic routes for forces on the front lines to the north.

Russia’s development of the ‘turtle’ tanks for now appears to be a significant factor in the counter measures against Ukraine drone strikes. The corrugated metal shed built over the tanks so far effectively blocks most drone srikes against the thin top armor of the tanks. They are not completely invincible, but so far it has been effective.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Deadlines being given to Hamas to agree to the current hostage/ceasefire proposal.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
Israel PM Netanyahu told a group of fallen soldiers’ families that the chance of hostages deal with Hamas is “very low” and accused Hamas with refusing to soften its demands such as complete withdrawal of Israeli army forces from Gaza Strip. He also rejected the possibility of ending the war.

***
Pier-building begins: Construction of the floating JLOTS pier in the Mediterranean is underway. The pier will support USAID and humanitarian partners to receive and deliver humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza. USTRANSCOM and USEUCOM support the movement of humanitarian aid

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza. Bombing and artillery strikes concentrated in N, Central and S Gaza.

***
The IDF Chief of Staff reportedly approved plans for a major operation into Rafah during a meeting with the IDF Southern Command commander and division and brigade commanders.

***
Israeli officials have stated that they will give Hamas between 48-72 Hours to respond to the current ceasefire deal or else the ground invasion of Rafah will move forward as planned.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire between IDF and Hezbollah.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.

Confrontations broke out between rioters and soldiers around the military checkpoint in the Shuafat camp before dawn today

——— FORECAST ————————-

Situation in the north against Hezbollah will continue to be volatile as levels of fighting ebb and flow based largely upon Israeli strikes on senior Hezbollah and IRGC leadership.

IDF is getting closer to kicking off the ground operation into Rafah. The threat to Hamas of 48 - 72 hours marks the earliest operations could kick off. It is in Hamas’s interests to delay this for as long as possible. Increasing evidence that Hamas has either killed or lost control of virtually all the remaining hostages is coming to light. Earlier, Hamas said it couldn’t pull 40 together for an exchange, now it is doubtful that they can even get 30. Hamas now has virtually no hostage cards to play to effectively delay the israeli operation.

Israeli tactics have not been announced - for good reason. However, i think that Israel may first move northward along the Gaza/Egypt border to block both Hamas and refugee movement into Egypt - a major concern of Egypt. Recently IAF has been hitting that zone in probable battlefield preparation strikes. The main search and destroy element would then deploy straight across the Israeli / Gaza border moving northward where other Israeli forces facilitating civilian movement out of Rafah can interdict any Hamas elements trying to flee in that direction as well.

Going back to Hezbollah and Lebanon, it is being reported that Israel has gotten its logistics tail ready for the eventual conflict with Hezbollah. Unless Hezbollah launches a preemptive strike to try to support the last stand of Hamas, I expect that Israel will not turn north for at least two months after the initiation of the Rafah operation - the amount of time Israel has estimated it will take to finish the search and destroy operation. This would free up resources from Gaza for use in the north.

Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024

Israeli has allegedly carried out an operation in Tehran targeting and eliminating an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) operative involved in plotting attacks against Jews in Germany, anti-regime media outlet Iran International reported Monday, citing its sources. According to the report, the elimination was carried out with a gun.

Mexico -

(FO) Mexico’s longshot presidential challenger is widely said to have won last night’s presidential debate. Xóchitl Gálvez accused ruling Morena Party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum of being a “narco-candidate.” Gálvez remains down in the polls against Sheinbaum, 51%-26%, but may receive a bump after last night’s debate.

OBSERVATION - At current projections, Mexico may well be continuing to facilitate movement of illegals into the US after their elections and continued status quo with narco terror cartels. Increasing sanctions on China have opened opportunities for Mexico to host new factories and increase local employment - which could take some pressure off their economy.

Well, surgery went fine, but it’ll be a while before i get this brace off, so limited typing capability. Will continue with summaries for the moment.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

The WHO has put out an alert to more closely monitor dairy cattle in response to the latest bird flu outbreaks. Some are thinking that this could be a harbinger to them calling to cull the herds (like they cull poultry ) to control the spread.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

I can’t type a lot of the details here that I’d like, but the past few days have been rather dynamic on the pro-hamas campus takeovers and resulting fallout.

Police have pretty much moved in and the major encampments cleared out. In some instances, radical elements that escaped circled back to try to reestablish camps after police presence went away, but were relatively countered quickly. Some actions on private campuses with uber liberal administrations are still hanging around.

It also has become apparent that the standard groups of leftist shell organizations used by Soros have been the source of funding. If anyone looked at all the plywood alone used at UCLA , we are talking thousands of dollars just in that alone.

Arrests across most of the campuses indicate that a majority of the riot participants were not students, but outsiders. Further examination indicates that many had prior arrests for participation in the 2020 Floyd riots. All antifa affiliated.

Further finger prints of Antifia essentially taking over the encampments is the tactics used. One of the obvious ones was the umbrella shield technique. But more elaborate organization has come out in how the protestors were organized. There were specially designated “combat” elements identified while others - congregated around camp supplies. Elements were also seen using the off the shelf GMS/FRMS walkie talkies to coordinate - thought being that they were concerned over losing cell connections as well as monitoring. However, those little hand helds are very easily intercepted and they don’t have a clue that the ‘privacy’ channels don’t work the way they think they do. I have the software and equipment that could have effectively monitored their comms - on the cheap.

In an interesting note has been the rise of fraternities and other to directly and in some instances physically oppose the pro-hamas mobs. A group of a couple hundred laid siege to the UCLA encampment with bear spray and fireworks (as well as a few well placed punches) following the assault of a female jewish student sent to the hospital for concussions by camp participants. Other, loud counter protests disrupted and in some instances shut down other pro-hamas rallies. This may indicate a potential flash point for future violence as i don’t think the Antifia elements had factored in any such resistance nor the level thereof.

Property destruction to me indicates that Antifa is looking to start more property destruction. One campus leader was quoted saying that they were ready to ‘burn it all down’. This raises concerns for future protests/riots in that they will start destroying campus facilities first then potentially migrate the violence off campus. I think off campus violence is their ultimate goal.

The disarray in this so called movement I see today needs to be monitored closely as the leadership is assessing successes and losses. Participants in some instances totally screwed up their college careers while at the leftist universities like Colombia are looking to grant a form of scholastic amnesty - employers will see the tainted degree and possibly not hire them.

Outside the mind numbed students (some of which had no clue as to what they were protesting), Antifa has not gained any community support that would permit them to expand into the 2020 riot mode. Their PR claims of being poor ‘children’ being starved and beaten have fallen on ridicule.

The risk is very high that Antifa and the leftists will try to generate a false flag event of some kind to relight campus actions. Otherwise, I think the high water mark has been reached and that campus actions will be on the decline otherwise.

***
The Rasmussen Reports document on that foreboding expectation was released on Thursday.

It said “41% of Likely U.S. voters believe the United States is likely to experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, including 16% who consider such a scenario Very Likely.”

Not even half, 49%, said they don’t think it’s likely.

Rasmussen said, “Such discussions got a boost after the new movie ‘Civil War’ made its debut as No. 1 at the box office last month. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters believe another civil war is more likely to happen if President Joe Biden wins this year’s election, while 25% think another civil war is more likely if former President Donald Trump wins. Thirty percent (30%) say who wins this year’s election will not make much difference in the likelihood of a civil war.”

OBSERVATION - This is the latest of many polls I’ve cited over the past few years indicating that some form of a civil war is on the minds of Americans and growing. The range of thought goes from a ‘civil divorce’ to all out combat. The hard push the past three years by the deep state totalitarians on multiple fronts has served to widen the gap between blue and red and even has started galvanizing red states into a more mutually supporting block against the regime. There are a lot of potential triggers for open conflict - the biggest being activities surrounding the Nov election and the bogus lawsuits against Trump.

FOLKS - the barometer is falling and falling fast. There is a storm coming, just how big is yet to be seen, but has catastrophic potential.

Economy-

Increased unemployment, dropping GDP and increasing inflation. April’s initial economic numbers have given rise to increased concerns that we may be facing stagflation once again. It will take more than just one months worth of data to establish any solid trend. If you’ve followed here I’ve noted economic forecasts all over the board - from hyperinflation, to deflation, to recession/depression as well as stagflation.

***
U.S. employers added just 175,000 jobs in April, falling far short of analysts’ expectations, and the unemployment rate inched higher, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rose to 3.9% in April, but analysts had expected it remain at March’s 3.8% level.
Likewise, April’s job growth was well beneath the 243,000 expected and the 200,000 mark threshold dividing high and low growth. Over the prior 12 months, job growth averaged 242,000 per month.
Employment growth in February and March, combined, has been revised downward by a total of 22,000 jobs from BLS’s previous reports.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/april-job-growth-greatly-disappoints-governments-gain-screeches-near-halt

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Don’t bet the farm on this just yet, but recent polling in dark blue Washington State shows Trump taking a lead over biden.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another heavy day of ground fighting with Russian forces pretty well expanding the Ocheretyne breach to the north and south, securing the flanks.

Russia has potentially breached the irrigation canal/river to the east of Chaiv Yar, threatening to break thru the city’s southern margin.

Russia continuing to indiscriminately hammer Kharkiv and Odesa due in part to the degradation of air defenses.

Reports that Russia is moving two divisions from the southern front region around Robotyne to the eastern front to reinforce the offensive as an operational reserve.

Russian advances are being met with heavy casualties and losses. However, Russia has been able to mass enough power to counter Ukraine’s smaller forces in prepared defenses. So far, this winter/spring offensive has captured more territory for Russia than any period after 2022’s initial assaults in Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General –

Eyeing civil unrest in the country of Georgia where a Russia friendly govt is trying to force laws on the masses that they don’t want and it may open up the potential for some degree of russian intervention.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas reportedly approves first phase of ceasefire deal - with conditions

——— FORECAST ————————-

In summary, over the past few days there has been a lot of the ‘standard’ artillery/air attacks across Gaza and Lebanon. What has moved the needle is the speed at which Rafah refugee movement is starting and Israeli preparations for operations there.

The immanency of the operation has gotten Hamas’ attention and they are now playing their PR game dancing around a hostage for ceasefire and criminal release offer. Israel has given them 7 days to accept the offer - Hamas mouthpieces are claiming they are in agreement to some of it - but closer look shows that they are still holding to the hard line with is essentially having Israel surrender. We saw similar Hamas maneuvering before each of Israel’s other major actions in the north and central Gaza. Hamas is maneuvering to be seen as the victim when they reject the terms and get hammered in Rafah.

The anti-Israeli International Criminal Court is threatening to charge Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders with crimes against humanity. The US is weakly opposing their efforts and may be using this as leverage over Netanyahu to conduct the war the way DC wants it to. However, israel’s resolve to end Hamas will not be cowed by this.

We will know by next weekend if Israel is going to execute the operation or if Hamas delay tactics have worked.

FYI - This Sunday night will begin Yom HaShoah, and the remembrance will run through Monday afternoon. Translated literally as “Day of the Catastrophe”, this is Israel’s annual Holocaust Remembrance Day. In the 1930s and 1940s, more than six million Jews lost their lives under the Nazi regime. Of those victims, greater than 1.5 million were children.
At 10:00 on Monday morning, sirens will sound throughout the nation of Israel. At that moment, all people will stop what they are doing and stand in silence for two minutes to honor and remember those who were slaughtered during that horrific time. Places of business will halt their activities. Cars will pull over and their passengers will get out. School classes will pause their instruction. The nation marks the moment never to forget what took place during those dark times.