Well, surgery went fine, but it’ll be a while before i get this brace off, so limited typing capability. Will continue with summaries for the moment.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The WHO has put out an alert to more closely monitor dairy cattle in response to the latest bird flu outbreaks. Some are thinking that this could be a harbinger to them calling to cull the herds (like they cull poultry ) to control the spread.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
I can’t type a lot of the details here that I’d like, but the past few days have been rather dynamic on the pro-hamas campus takeovers and resulting fallout.
Police have pretty much moved in and the major encampments cleared out. In some instances, radical elements that escaped circled back to try to reestablish camps after police presence went away, but were relatively countered quickly. Some actions on private campuses with uber liberal administrations are still hanging around.
It also has become apparent that the standard groups of leftist shell organizations used by Soros have been the source of funding. If anyone looked at all the plywood alone used at UCLA , we are talking thousands of dollars just in that alone.
Arrests across most of the campuses indicate that a majority of the riot participants were not students, but outsiders. Further examination indicates that many had prior arrests for participation in the 2020 Floyd riots. All antifa affiliated.
Further finger prints of Antifia essentially taking over the encampments is the tactics used. One of the obvious ones was the umbrella shield technique. But more elaborate organization has come out in how the protestors were organized. There were specially designated “combat” elements identified while others - congregated around camp supplies. Elements were also seen using the off the shelf GMS/FRMS walkie talkies to coordinate - thought being that they were concerned over losing cell connections as well as monitoring. However, those little hand helds are very easily intercepted and they don’t have a clue that the ‘privacy’ channels don’t work the way they think they do. I have the software and equipment that could have effectively monitored their comms - on the cheap.
In an interesting note has been the rise of fraternities and other to directly and in some instances physically oppose the pro-hamas mobs. A group of a couple hundred laid siege to the UCLA encampment with bear spray and fireworks (as well as a few well placed punches) following the assault of a female jewish student sent to the hospital for concussions by camp participants. Other, loud counter protests disrupted and in some instances shut down other pro-hamas rallies. This may indicate a potential flash point for future violence as i don’t think the Antifia elements had factored in any such resistance nor the level thereof.
Property destruction to me indicates that Antifa is looking to start more property destruction. One campus leader was quoted saying that they were ready to ‘burn it all down’. This raises concerns for future protests/riots in that they will start destroying campus facilities first then potentially migrate the violence off campus. I think off campus violence is their ultimate goal.
The disarray in this so called movement I see today needs to be monitored closely as the leadership is assessing successes and losses. Participants in some instances totally screwed up their college careers while at the leftist universities like Colombia are looking to grant a form of scholastic amnesty - employers will see the tainted degree and possibly not hire them.
Outside the mind numbed students (some of which had no clue as to what they were protesting), Antifa has not gained any community support that would permit them to expand into the 2020 riot mode. Their PR claims of being poor ‘children’ being starved and beaten have fallen on ridicule.
The risk is very high that Antifa and the leftists will try to generate a false flag event of some kind to relight campus actions. Otherwise, I think the high water mark has been reached and that campus actions will be on the decline otherwise.
***
The Rasmussen Reports document on that foreboding expectation was released on Thursday.
It said “41% of Likely U.S. voters believe the United States is likely to experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, including 16% who consider such a scenario Very Likely.”
Not even half, 49%, said they don’t think it’s likely.
Rasmussen said, “Such discussions got a boost after the new movie ‘Civil War’ made its debut as No. 1 at the box office last month. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters believe another civil war is more likely to happen if President Joe Biden wins this year’s election, while 25% think another civil war is more likely if former President Donald Trump wins. Thirty percent (30%) say who wins this year’s election will not make much difference in the likelihood of a civil war.”
OBSERVATION - This is the latest of many polls I’ve cited over the past few years indicating that some form of a civil war is on the minds of Americans and growing. The range of thought goes from a ‘civil divorce’ to all out combat. The hard push the past three years by the deep state totalitarians on multiple fronts has served to widen the gap between blue and red and even has started galvanizing red states into a more mutually supporting block against the regime. There are a lot of potential triggers for open conflict - the biggest being activities surrounding the Nov election and the bogus lawsuits against Trump.
FOLKS - the barometer is falling and falling fast. There is a storm coming, just how big is yet to be seen, but has catastrophic potential.
Economy-
Increased unemployment, dropping GDP and increasing inflation. April’s initial economic numbers have given rise to increased concerns that we may be facing stagflation once again. It will take more than just one months worth of data to establish any solid trend. If you’ve followed here I’ve noted economic forecasts all over the board - from hyperinflation, to deflation, to recession/depression as well as stagflation.
***
U.S. employers added just 175,000 jobs in April, falling far short of analysts’ expectations, and the unemployment rate inched higher, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rose to 3.9% in April, but analysts had expected it remain at March’s 3.8% level.
Likewise, April’s job growth was well beneath the 243,000 expected and the 200,000 mark threshold dividing high and low growth. Over the prior 12 months, job growth averaged 242,000 per month.
Employment growth in February and March, combined, has been revised downward by a total of 22,000 jobs from BLS’s previous reports.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Don’t bet the farm on this just yet, but recent polling in dark blue Washington State shows Trump taking a lead over biden.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another heavy day of ground fighting with Russian forces pretty well expanding the Ocheretyne breach to the north and south, securing the flanks.
Russia has potentially breached the irrigation canal/river to the east of Chaiv Yar, threatening to break thru the city’s southern margin.
Russia continuing to indiscriminately hammer Kharkiv and Odesa due in part to the degradation of air defenses.
Reports that Russia is moving two divisions from the southern front region around Robotyne to the eastern front to reinforce the offensive as an operational reserve.
Russian advances are being met with heavy casualties and losses. However, Russia has been able to mass enough power to counter Ukraine’s smaller forces in prepared defenses. So far, this winter/spring offensive has captured more territory for Russia than any period after 2022’s initial assaults in Ukraine.
Europe / NATO General –
Eyeing civil unrest in the country of Georgia where a Russia friendly govt is trying to force laws on the masses that they don’t want and it may open up the potential for some degree of russian intervention.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas reportedly approves first phase of ceasefire deal - with conditions
——— FORECAST ————————-
In summary, over the past few days there has been a lot of the ‘standard’ artillery/air attacks across Gaza and Lebanon. What has moved the needle is the speed at which Rafah refugee movement is starting and Israeli preparations for operations there.
The immanency of the operation has gotten Hamas’ attention and they are now playing their PR game dancing around a hostage for ceasefire and criminal release offer. Israel has given them 7 days to accept the offer - Hamas mouthpieces are claiming they are in agreement to some of it - but closer look shows that they are still holding to the hard line with is essentially having Israel surrender. We saw similar Hamas maneuvering before each of Israel’s other major actions in the north and central Gaza. Hamas is maneuvering to be seen as the victim when they reject the terms and get hammered in Rafah.
The anti-Israeli International Criminal Court is threatening to charge Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders with crimes against humanity. The US is weakly opposing their efforts and may be using this as leverage over Netanyahu to conduct the war the way DC wants it to. However, israel’s resolve to end Hamas will not be cowed by this.
We will know by next weekend if Israel is going to execute the operation or if Hamas delay tactics have worked.
FYI - This Sunday night will begin Yom HaShoah, and the remembrance will run through Monday afternoon. Translated literally as “Day of the Catastrophe”, this is Israel’s annual Holocaust Remembrance Day. In the 1930s and 1940s, more than six million Jews lost their lives under the Nazi regime. Of those victims, greater than 1.5 million were children.
At 10:00 on Monday morning, sirens will sound throughout the nation of Israel. At that moment, all people will stop what they are doing and stand in silence for two minutes to honor and remember those who were slaughtered during that horrific time. Places of business will halt their activities. Cars will pull over and their passengers will get out. School classes will pause their instruction. The nation marks the moment never to forget what took place during those dark times.
Things seem quiet - too quiet.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Students (and probably more than a few professional agitators, as we have learned) at George Washington University held a “People’s Tribunal” putting many of the school’s faculty on symbolic trial and demanding their deaths.
X account Stu Stu Studios posted footage of the scene featuring a girl speaking through a megaphone, leading chants calling out GWU Provost Christopher Bracey and accusing him of assault on top of the support for Israel and Zionism accusations, chanting, “Bracey, Bracey, we see you, you assault students too.”
The girl on the megaphone then accuses GWU’s Board of Trustees of profiteering off the “genocide” of Palestinians, and after the other students loudly proclaim them “guilty,” she yells, “To the guillotine!”
***
A group of anti-Israel protesters stole the keys to a building at the School of the Art Institute of Chicago campus on Saturday and barricaded themselves inside for several hours, despite being offered amnesty, administrators said.
A group began protesting in the north garden property at the campus before shoving a security guard and taking the keys to a museum, an Art Institute spokesperson told Fox News Digital. They then blocked emergency exits and barricaded the gates, officials said.
The school offered the protesters an alternative location to continue their protest on campus, which was was refused, officials said.
***
At least 25 anti-Israel protesters were arrested at the University of Virginia campus Saturday as authorities tried to clear an encampment, the school said.
Campus police declared an “unlawful assembly” earlier in the day after UVA Police Chief Tim Longo gave a group of anti-Israel protesters near the University Chapel 10 minutes to leave the area.
At 8:15 a.m., officials tried to collect tents and were met with “agitation and chanting” from protesters, the school said in a news release.
“Authorities were again met with agitation, chanting and violent gestures such as swinging of objects,” the school said. “Beginning at around 2:30 p.m., UPD gave the crowd three verbal warnings that an unlawful assembly would be declared if demonstrators refused to leave the area.”
***
A judge in Arizona has rejected a motion to lift the suspension of twenty students arrested during anti-Israel protests at Arizona State University (ASU). The U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona denied the students’ request on Friday, as reported by local outlet ABC 15.
The defendants, who filed a lawsuit against the Arizona Board of Regents, argued that their suspension from ASU was causing “irreparable harm” by preventing them from enrolling in classes. They also claimed that the suspensions violated their First Amendment rights.
https://thelibertydaily.com/judge-slaps-down-motion-anti-zionist-protesters-end/
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Ripples continue in the college campus protests, but it seems the high water has been reached and things are ebbing.
Legal actions are on going and will depend on if the judges are liberal (Soros) activists - meaning no charges, or more legitimate that will hold these protestors accountable. The left PR spin is fully engaged trying to portray them as poor abused children. I really don’t think this view is gaining any traction - only the most brainwashed left would accept this. Your average american knows better.
The real hard leftist calls for the guillotine are more concerning, indicating that violence and even murder are on the books potentially for the riots i expect later this summer, post-political conventions.
Now that most colleges and universities have had or soon will have their commencement exercises and the spring semester/quarter ended, most of these ‘children’ will be breaking for home, reducing the available sheeple for an immediate continuation of riots except by those outsiders (Antifa).
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of downgraded APR 20, 2024
At least three synagogues and a museum in New York received bomb threats on Saturday but none were deemed credible by the New York Police Department, a city official and police said.
Manhattan Borough President Mark D. Levine said on X the synagogue bomb threats were “a clear hate crime, and part of a growing trend of ‘swatting’ incidents targeting Jewish institutions.”
“This is a clear effort to sow fear in the Jewish community. Cannot be accepted,” he said.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/synagogues-bomb-threats/2024/05/05/id/1163514/
NOTE - Holocaust memorials begin tonight thru the first part of next week.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG has transitioned from the Middle Eastern waters of the U.S. Central Command, where it has been stationed to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
This strategic move was executed in conjunction with the guided-missile destroyer, USS Gravely, with both vessels navigating through the Suez Canal to reach their new location.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NATO exercise Steadfast Defender indicates the alliance is preparing for a “potential conflict” with Russia, - Russian Foreign Ministry
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 of 24 Shahed drones. Kharkiv and Dnipro regions targeted. Ukrainian Military shot down Su-25 aircraft in Donetsk region.
Another heavy day of ground fighting.
Ocheretyne -
Russian forces continue to press westward from Ocheretyne.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Heavy fighting continues as Ukraine attempts to seal up the Russia crossing of the canal on the town’s east side and Russia attempts to force northward into the edge of Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
Russia continues its advances, they have done so with substantial losses of late. Ukraine, besides shortages of ammo, is also facing shortages in manpower. Until now that wasn’t too critical since on defense, conventional wisdom indicates that your opponent must have a 3;1 superiority in manpower. Ukraine offset this by having good, effective artillery support. Now its down to boots on the ground, and Russia has the advantage there.
Expect fighting to continue to focus on the Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar areas.
ISRAEL –
On Sunday evening, May 5, begins the Israeli holiday known around the world as “Holocaust Remembrance Day”, or “Yom HaShoah” (shoah being the Hebrew word for holocaust).
Key overnight developments -
- Confusion over just what Hamas is accepting as part of the hostage release / ceasefire deal.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Advisor to the head of the Hamas Political Bureau: The ceasefire in Gaza is linked to responding to our demands.
***
Israel’s military is poised to enter into Rafah, the last major stronghold of Hamas in Gaza, without a deal for the release of the hostages. But Hamas still wants to continue negotiations to end the war.
Israeli troops and tanks continue to gather near Rafah for the expected military operation. Rafah is where many believe the leaders of Hamas, including Yahya Sinwar, are hiding as well as the remaining battalions of Hamas fighters. It’s also thought to be the location of the last remaining hostages.
While Hamas seems to reject the latest ceasefire offer, it apparently wants negotiations to continue, a tactic that could be intended to forestall the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) Rafah invasion.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says they will move ahead with their plans for an assault.
“We will do what is necessary in order to win and overcome our enemies, including in Rafah, in order to secure our future,” Netanyahu pledged.
(Fox News)
***
Israeli officials on Saturday night vehemently denied reports that the government has agreed to end the war against Hamas as part of an emerging hostage deal.
According to the reports, the Biden administration had conveyed guarantees to Hamas that the deal currently being discussed would culminate with a full Israel Defense Forces withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
“Contrary to reports, Israel will under no circumstances agree to the end of the war as part of an agreement to release our hostages,” an official in Jerusalem was quoted as saying by Hebrew-language media.
“The IDF will enter Rafah and destroy the remaining Hamas battalions there—with or without a temporary respite to allow for the release of our hostages,” added the source.
https://israel365news.com/389940/israel-will-under-no-circumstances-end-war-for-hostage-deal/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to strike targets of opportunity across Gaza. Bombing and artillery strikes concentrated in N, Central and S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between IDF and Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis claiming that they may begin targeting ships again in the Red Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
As I’ve said before, Hamas is wielding the hostages as a tool to thwart and delay Israeli operations. Playing a ‘cooperation’ card while doing a Hans Solo shot under the table. I am not expecting any kind of a deal short of total capitulation by Hamas, which will never happen. They are in martyr mode. They will do what ever it takes to make it look like Israel is the bad guy - and international media will carry the story front page.
Africa general –
Russian military personnel have entered an airbase in Niger that is hosting American troops, after a decision by Niger’s junta to expel US forces from the country.
A senior US defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that Russian forces were not mingling with US troops but were using a separate hangar at Airbase 101, which is next to Diori Hamani international airport in Niamey, Niger’s capital.
Misc of Note –
I noted at the top of the post the relative ‘quiet’. In previous years this would be thunderous noise, but as trends go, bigger ‘events’ are occurring that have raised the sound level far above what it was even a year ago.
So what are the ‘big stick’ items for May?
- WHO finalizes the pandemic ‘treaty’
- Play out of Hamas hostage game and the Israel operation in Rafah
- Disintegration of lawsuits against Trump, and resulting leftist uproar
- biden continues to crash in polls and losing support from historically reliable democrat allies
Even bigger fish are on the horizon for this summer
- Start of the Israel campaign to remove Hezbollah from S Lebanon
- leftist / Antifa attempts to recreate 2020 riots, likely trying to use the political conventions as jump off points
- Further economic turmoil that may provide better sense of what to expect later in the year.
There are others I’m concerned with but with lower potentials for occurring including
- biden declaring a national emergency (insert cause here) to affect the elections
- China moves on Taiwan before the elections
- Terror attacks of varying scale and effectiveness.
So I guess we should be thankful for a little ‘quiet’ because the storm is coming.
Good news, thanks for the update. Take care of that hand/wrist Godzilla.