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Larry Sabato hedging his bet on Clinton, admits Trump may be one state away
Political Ref ^ | 09/15/16 | Political Ref

Posted on 09/15/2016 7:03:23 AM PDT by TheRef

On Thursday, Sabato and company admitted that their normal model is possibly not as reliable in this election. The normal assumptions they make, he points out, are not necessarily holding up.

Throughout the article, while still holding to the prediction of a Clinton win, Sabato gives numerous reasons why he might be wrong and Trump may win . . .

(Excerpt) Read more at politicalref.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: bias; blogpimp; clickbait; polls; predictions
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To: Hojczyk

That’s why I called them “dems”.....but maybe I should just call them “RATS”. although some of us would agree the more appropriate term should be traitors...but that doesn’t leave much room for conversion to the right if you make them so mad that the ones who still have hearing closedown, dig in, and get defensive....just saying.


21 posted on 09/15/2016 7:25:58 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: KC_Conspirator

They can say whatever they want.

They get paid to make guesses, not to be right.

That is why all of these polling outfits are still in business, even after making incorrect predictions.

They can just wax on about “unforeseen variables” and other statistical junk to give them cover.


22 posted on 09/15/2016 7:26:13 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: TheRef

Sabato is a hack working at a liberal university, whose paycheck is
cut by a liberal university. Need we know more?


23 posted on 09/15/2016 7:27:41 AM PDT by tennmountainman ("Prophet Mountainman" Predicter Of All Things RINO...for a small pittance)
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To: TheRef

Yep I got Trump one state away right now too.

Trump has got the following 5 locked up:

Florida
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Maine (1)
Nevada

That puts Trump at 266, which means Trump only needs one more pickup for the win.

Possible pickups:
Colorado
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Virginia
New Hampshire
The Remainder of Maine
New Mexico
Oregon


24 posted on 09/15/2016 7:27:49 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: wastoute
Good for her......you've got to be very proud!

My son wanted to be a neurologist but decided to become an engineer. He didn't want to end up working for the government if O'bummer care became permanent. He's going to graduate this spring and just had first interviews for three of the four companies he applied to at his first job fair!

25 posted on 09/15/2016 7:32:20 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: JPG

LOL!!!!!!!


26 posted on 09/15/2016 7:33:36 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: JPG

....explains why he’s seeing stars......


27 posted on 09/15/2016 7:34:12 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

actually the rest of Maine isn’t quite enough by itself, Trump would still be one EV short with that alone as the last pickup. But honestly there is no way Trump picks up the rest of Maine without picking up another of those possible pickups up too.


28 posted on 09/15/2016 7:35:20 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: thingumbob

We are proud of her! Good back atcha! Glad to hear your son decided to do something useful with his life. After over three decades as a physician I can’t recommend it.


29 posted on 09/15/2016 7:37:08 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

Or even just New Hampshire. He’s relying on conventional wisdom in a realignment year. Mistake.


30 posted on 09/15/2016 7:37:11 AM PDT by TheRef
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To: KC_Conspirator

yes, but he’s one of the guys who probably signed off on this latest projection, which is full of caveats. So they are crossing their fingers, no doubt.


31 posted on 09/15/2016 7:37:11 AM PDT by TheRef
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To: TheRef

I saw Larry on Fox last weekend.
He was pretty much “Hillary has it in the bag” as of then.
It must be worse than we think for him to flip so fast.


32 posted on 09/15/2016 7:40:58 AM PDT by Zathras
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To: TheRef

On election eve, if PA, Ohio, and Florida get called for Trump, we can pretty-much go to bed.


33 posted on 09/15/2016 7:44:02 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Not too long ago, Virginia was a reliable GOP state. That was before all the raging liberals from northeast states moved into the Washington DC area.

Now that the punk McAuliff is governor there is no way he will let Trump win Virginia.

The Clintons owe McAuliff a lot of money, he purchased the mansion for them in Chappauqua, NY. That is an investment that he will not give up on.


34 posted on 09/15/2016 7:47:41 AM PDT by Flavious_Maximus
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To: TADSLOS

I agree wholeheartedly. I can’t bear to see him on Fox...but Fox is getting so lopsided against Trump it is difficult to watch any of their drivel anymore.


35 posted on 09/15/2016 7:49:11 AM PDT by cajun-jack
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To: TheRef

Sabato receives a second Soros check


36 posted on 09/15/2016 7:51:48 AM PDT by butlerweave
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To: Helicondelta

and Karl Rove too. I can’t bear to see him on my television and when he pops up there with or without his whiteboard, I switch to animal planet or something...I would rather watch almost anything other than him


37 posted on 09/15/2016 7:52:12 AM PDT by cajun-jack
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To: HamiltonJay

Great post!


38 posted on 09/15/2016 7:56:45 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Flavious_Maximus

Yep, ironically Virginia will be one of the hardest pickups of them all.


39 posted on 09/15/2016 7:58:45 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

If Virginia and/or Pennsylvania are too close to call or go Trump... it’s over, Trump won.


40 posted on 09/15/2016 7:59:55 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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