Posted on 09/15/2016 7:03:23 AM PDT by TheRef
On Thursday, Sabato and company admitted that their normal model is possibly not as reliable in this election. The normal assumptions they make, he points out, are not necessarily holding up.
Throughout the article, while still holding to the prediction of a Clinton win, Sabato gives numerous reasons why he might be wrong and Trump may win . . .
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalref.com ...
If Trump can go ahead in PA and Michigan, Sabato will throw his old playbook away.
This guy is in the tank for the dems no matter how much it appears otherwise. I don’t pay any attention to his double speak.
I see the punditry class are wanting to keep their “reputations” intact as we get closer to an election most of them know Hillary will lose absent massive vote fraud!
Sabato is a greasy snake.
Of course he is a lib. When my daughter was at UVA in the late 90s she had a boyfriend who was a Poli Sci major who tried to tell me Sabato was non partisan. I laughed in his face. Thankfully she dropped him shortly thereafter.
You raised her to be a thinker!....not a chain linker.
This guy is in the tank for the DEMOCRATS
She inherited mom’s brains. Got her PhD in Neuroscience and married a Baptist pastor!
Sabato is working my last nerve!
Sabato’s henchman/manager was just on O’Reilly saying she had 273 EV’s “locked up” and it was all over.
Regardless the electoral college, people’s votes are all that matters. The talk about can’t win or has “fewer”ways to win is ridiculous. These pollsters know that as the national support levels change, the state polls will follow. Happens all the time.
How is Trump polling in MI? (and WI for that matter too) I have seen him ahead in OH, FL, IA, and NV recently.
Larry Sabato is a clown. Always wrong about everything.
Wasn’t O’Reilly & Meeegyn exposed in WikiLeaks as meeting with DNC to strategize leftist tactics?
Him and Michael Barone. With landlines comprising .09% ( I saw the pie chart the other day I was shocked ) of phones left in households, how do they get an accurate cross sample. Now Trump owns Social Media, larger than Obama in 08' & 12. Nate Silver doesn't even get it, this cycle. That App who's name escapes me and ConservativeTreeHouse has it wired.
All their playbooks, paradigms, etc don't work this time.
Again this is a component of what I coined as the great disillusionment of the electorate that has been building for 30 yrs and they are throwing everything not of value off the sinking ship (our TDSer's, Elitist talkers E-Goper's, Crony-Statist, etc etc etc ), and it Electorate is about to weld a plate on the hole because the blue collars in this country know how to fix it.
That will depend on how Trump does in the urban areas. They are gamed to provide enough votes for the Democrat to win the state.
Each precinct captain will be rolling a new BNW in November, compliments of Hillary.
Trump is at 260 as things stand, FL, NC, IA, and OH and ME 2 are locked up... by my count that’s about 260. He will certainly get more before election day.
Hillary never had a chance, and those that argued she did were either just in the tank, or too blind to recognize what is going on.... stuck with old models and old thinking.
Oh, she’s got more money, a better ground game, more endorsements, blah blah blah....
ALL MEANINGLESS! We are in a DISRUPTIVE CYCLE! We are having an election that is about the corrupt, globalist status quo where America and her interests are secondary to deep pocket globalists who own both parties... and A Nationalist American First world view.
The curtain has been pulled back, folks are wise to what’s been going on, their crap and spin and lies just aren’t flying... trying to measure or predict this election based on anything that has happened in the lifetime of most living Americans is fundamentally flawed.
Trump is 10 EC votes away from a total lock, if you believe he has CO and NV locked up he’s already at 270.
The laughable pundits and their arguments this cycle show you just how much of a bubble and echo chamber they all live in.
They Treated Hillary as though she was just another D, and Trump as though he was just this freak show.... They failed to realize that Hillary is the freak show and Trump is the man of the people. They have been so damned blinded by their own biases and inability to believe what they were seeing that they convinced themselves of their lunacy.
This isn’t a liberal v conservative election, those concepts hold no real meaning at least not in the MACRO context of this election (though certainly Hillary is a Liberal and if she wins would certainly stack the court and end the constitution as written)... When both candidates are putting America’s interest first, then that argument is valid... but when neither party is putting American’s interests first, a liberal v conservative argument is like 2 interior decorators arguing over what colors to paint the second floor while the foundation is collapsing.
Hillary has been trying to argue about the color to put on the walls, while Trump has been screaming we need to fix the foundation... and most folks intrinsically recognize this, even if they don’t or can’t intellectually articulate it.
Trump had this from the day Hillary got the nomination, there was never any doubt... all the push polling and gas lighting in the world can’t save her. Her corruption is the epitome of the fundamental problem.. she literally took a bribe to sell russia 20% of our Uranium stockpiles... SHe’s a traitor... and that’s one of the lesser of her crimes.
To this day the FBI protects her... the corruption is to the core....
The people have had enough. Not only is Trump winning this, he’s going to win it big... this isn’t going to be a thread the needle, one state or two states can swing the election... this is going to be a route! The notion of a divided electorate is laughable.. the “Trumpocrats” are out there, and they are not small in number, but the press won’t even acknowledge their existence... Unlike 1980 where the press at least could recognize to some extent this was going on, this year they are so in the tank they can’t admit it to themselves, let alone honestly report it to the public... They have to keep the propaganda going....
Its pathetic.
He predicted Kerry would win in 2004.
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