Southern Evangelicals: Dwindling—and Taking the GOP Edge With Them

The Atlantic ^ | October 17, 2014 | ROBERT P. JONES

[NYer]

Midterm elections are all about turning out base constituencies. Over the last few decades, there have been few more reliable voters for Republicans than white evangelical Protestants. This year, however, GOP candidates may be getting less help from this group—not because white evangelical Protestants are becoming less supportive or less motivated, but simply because they are declining as a proportion of the population, even in Southern states.

White evangelical Protestants have remained a steadfast Republican constituency in both presidential and midterm congressional elections ever since the Reagan presidency, which marked what political scientists Merle and Earl Black dubbed “the great white switch.” In 2008 and 2012, roughly three-quarters of white born-again Christians supported GOP nominees John McCain (73 percent) and Mitt Romney (78 percent). In the 2010 midterm election, similar numbers of white born-again Christians (77 percent) supported the GOP House candidate in their districts.

During the heady days of evangelical prominence in the 1980s and 1990s, white evangelical Protestant leaders frequently noted the decline of their more liberal mainline Protestant cousins, but now white evangelicals are seeing their own populations shrink. In recent years, for example, the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest evangelical denomination in the country, has reported steady declines in membership and new baptisms. Since 2007, the number of white evangelical Protestants nationwide has slipped from 22 percent in 2007 to 18 percent today.

A look at generational differences demonstrates that this is only the beginnings of a major shift away from a robust white evangelical presence and influence in the country. While white evangelical Protestants constitute roughly three in 10 (29 percent) seniors (age 65 and older), they account for only one in 10 (10 percent) members of the Millennial generation (age 18-29).

[NYer]

White Evangelical Protestant Decline in Five Key Southern States (2007-2013)

FYI Ping!

[personalaccts]

back in 2000 it was stated that the Democrats would be competitive in the South due to more yankees screwing up there states and getting out to screw up another state. VA, NC, and FL have swung there way.

[skeeter]

Demographics is destiny.

But you go ahead and do as your big money contributors tell you, GOP, & jump right on 'comprehensive immigration reform' just as soon as the election's over.

[catfish1957]

What is the source of that data?

[MarkRegal05]

Those states leaning more liberal somewhat worries me. If the Dems start with nearly 250EVs on the Electoral Map due to even just one of these states beginning to leave the GOP, the judiciary is going to get even worse and worse. We’ve gotta crack this riddle.

[catfish1957]

Nevermind....

[re_nortex]

These are leftist lies published by the lamestream media to discourage Conservative Christians. I have proof positive that both Christianity and Conservatism are flourishing. The father of the family across the street is a liberal from Nashua, NH who moved here to Texas because of our booming IT economy. He had a silly COEXIST sticker on his little clown car and voted for hussein. His high-school age daughter, a cheerleader, has likewise been leading her dad to the right course. She goes to a Christian church and opposes sodomy in all forms. Thanks to her example, her dad traded in the clown car and now drives a normal vehicle. And sometime ago, at a high school football game, he said that he voted for Ted Cruz. And, to top it all off, he now flies a Texas flag from his front porch. And I fully expect he'll start coming to church too.

So, based on that evidence (and probably repeated a thousandfold), I only see that Christian Conservatism are on a measurable upswing. That's the kind of trends that the hussein-controlled media refuse to cover.

[Oliviaforever]

If it were any other group of Americans being literally decimated, there would be outrage, accusations and investigations. But because those being lost are white and Christian, nothing will be done.

If America was losing one of the protected classes, such as blacks, Latinos, gays and lesbians, at this rate, there would be media outrage.

[miss marmelstein]

What the hell is going on in my beloved South? We’re losing Evangelical Republicans, my fellow NYers are escaping Manhattan only to recreate what they left behind - it’s like Alice down the rabbit hole. I despair!

I blame all of this on the premature death of Jerry Falwell. A jolly man who was treated like crap by the MSM.

[NYer]

The article ... you should read it in its entirety.

[BenLurkin]

[SoFloFreeper]

...white evangelical Protestant leaders frequently noted the decline of their more liberal mainline Protestant cousins, but now white evangelicals are seeing their own populations shrink.

Well, part of that is because white evangelical Protestant leaders have deteriorated, I think, from being godly examples and continuing to preach the gospel....

Look, preach the Word in season and out of season. Stay true. That doesn't mean being filled with hate for "the other"; it means doing the good Samaritan thing.

Also, as a demographic fact, it might help to commune with the black and hispanic social conservatives...they might disagree with us on some economic issues (or not) but if we don't have a Judeo-Christian moral code to use as a foundation, the economic issues won't matter one whit.

My opinion.

[only1percent]

If America was losing one of the protected classes, such as blacks, Latinos, gays and lesbians, at this rate, there would be media outrage.

You'd be surprised.

Many of the most liberal places in the country are seeing huge waves of gentrification and loss of African American population with not more than a ho-hum.

For example, San Francisco's African American population in the 2020 census is likely to be less than half of what it was in 1990 and the decline is even more severe when you realize that in 2020 the black population will be mostly confined to a few isolated, and hopeless housing projects.

[re_nortex]

I blame all of this on the premature death of Jerry Falwell. A jolly man who was treated like crap by the MSM.

Well said. Jerry Falwell was good man, despised by commie media and smut peddlers like Larry Flynt. His fine college, Liberty University lives on and thrives. Given a choice between a Harvard "education" or the Christian-based curriculum at Liberty, it's not even a contest. Also included in that list of higher education institutions of value are Bob Jones University and Hillsdale College. They teach true American values unlike the Ivy League and government-run indoctrination centers like Cal, Wisconsin and Michigan.

[huckfillary]

There’s no riddle to this at all. It’s very difficult to get excited about a political party that lacks the courage of their convictions. As much as it sucks to say it, the Dems consistently deliver solid results to their base. The GOP does not. The Dems consistently advance their statist agenda. The GOP fails miserably to advance anything resembling an alternative agenda. The Dems have long-term goals and shamelessly and ruthlessly employ unethical, even criminal means to advance these goals. The Republicans have no discernable goals and consistently surrender.

[HarleyD]

Christianity is in decline.

Homosexuality, religious persecution, Ebola, ISIS are on the rise.

When man turn his back on God, God find ways to get man’s attention.

[x]

You're right not to trust The Atlantic, but the falling off of Evangelical energies has been reported elsewhere.

It's not really a new or surprising thing: no revival or Great Awakening on religious energies in American history lasted forever. There was always a weakening of enthusiasm and a falling away of adherents. It's hard to maintain the a high degree of commitment and energy over several decades.

But religious fervor moves in cycles. This isn't the end of Evangelicals by any means. Just the receding tide before the next wave comes in.

[WashingtonSource]

They are comparing surveys from two different sources, so the whole comparison is invalid. They would have to compare differences from the same surveying company in 2007 and 2013. This smells like propaganda. It would be so easy to compare a valid 2007 survey to a left-tilting survey of 2013 and claim and huge change.

[miss marmelstein]

Thank you for agreeing with me! I think Mr. Falwell’s death was a small death for a lot of us conservatives. I adored his amiable but righteous view about life - and I speak as a Catholic.

I’m glad his University goes on. I just so miss his appearances on tv - especially when he took on the Telle Tubies - and ended up laughing at himself. Dear man.