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In a discussion of this sort, there are various issues to be dealt with. I will try to address things one at a time. For now, let me address the question of the thief on the cross:

One of the examples often given to support the view that baptism is not for the remission of sins is the example of the thief on the cross. This incident is recorded in Luke 23:39-43:

“One of the criminals who were hanged railed at him, saying, `Are you not the Christ? Save yourself and us!’ But the other rebuked him, saying, `Do you not fear God, since you are under the same sentence of condemnation? And we indeed justly; for we are receiving the due reward of our deeds; but this man has done nothing wrong.’ And he said, `Jesus, remember me when you come in your kingdom.’ And he said to him, `Truly, I say to you, today you will be with me in Paradise.’”

This is given as an example of salvation without baptism. Two points need to be made, however. First of all, none of us can know whether the thief had been baptized before or not. John the Baptist had been baptizing a few years earlier. Matthew 3:5-6 says:

“Then went out to him Jerusalem and all Judea and all the region about the Jordan, and they were baptized by him in the river Jordan...”

Who can say that the thief was not one of these?

Whether the thief was baptized or not, though, is just a side issue in the argument. The main point is that the thief lived and died under the Old Covenant. Today we live under the New Covenant—the New Testament. Under the Old Testament law, people were commanded to offer animal sacrifices and do a variety of other things that we are not required to do today. Likewise we are commanded to do things today that those under the Old Covenant were not commanded to do. Failure to distinguish between the authority of the two covenants can cause a wide variety of religious error (e.g., sabbath day worship). People need to realize that the Old Covenant is not in effect today as a legal system.

“...by abolishing in his flesh the law of commandments and ordinances, that he might create in himself one new man in place of the two, so making peace, and might reconcile us both to God in one body through the cross...” (Ephesians 2:15-16)

“...having forgiven us all our trespasses, having canceled the bond which stood against us with its legal demands; this he set aside, nailing it to the cross.” (Colossians 2:13-14)

The Old Covenant with its written code was taken away with Christ’s death on the cross. The book of Hebrews speaks at length about the authority of the Old Covenant being replaced by that of the New:

“For if that first covenant had been faultless, there would have been no occasion for a second. For he finds fault with them when he says: `The days will come, says the Lord, when I will establish a new covenant with the house of Israel and with the house of Judah; not like the covenant that I made with their fathers on the day when I took them by the hand to lead them out of the land of Egypt; for they did not continue in my covenant, and so I paid no heed to them, says the Lord. This is the covenant that I will make with the house of Israel after those days, says the Lord: I will put my laws into their minds, and write them on their hearts, and I will be their God, and they shall be my people. And they shall not teach every one his fellow or every one his brother, saying “Know the Lord,” for all shall know me, from the least of them to the greatest. For I will be merciful toward their iniquities, and I will remember their sins no more.’

“In speaking of a new covenant he treats the first as obsolete. And what is becoming obsolete and growing old is ready to vanish away.” (Hebrews 8:7-13)

“When he said above, `Thou hast neither desired nor taken pleasure in sacrifices and offerings and burnt offerings and sin offerings’ (these are offered according to the law), then he added, `Lo, I have come to do thy will.’ He abolishes the first in order to establish the second. And by that will we have been sanctified through the offering of the body of Jesus Christ once for all.” (Hebrews 10:8-10)

The Old Testament is not our authority in religion for today. Likewise, the New Testament was not the authority for those living in Old Testament times. The New Testament did not go into effect until after the death of Jesus.

Today, if a person makes out a will, or testament, that will does not go into effect until after the person dies. For example, if I make out a will and promise to leave John Doe $100, the will does not go into effect until after I am dead.

“For where a will is involved, the death of the one who made it must be established. For a will takes effect only at death, since it is not in force as long as the one who made it is alive.” (Hebrews 9:16-17)

Mr. Doe could not legally come wrest his money from me before my death.

Not only is the death of a person necessary for a will to go into effect, but there is usually a brief period during which the will is probated. For example, if I will John Doe $100, and he hears on the news that I have died, he cannot come over and break into my house and start looking for the money. Likewise, the church came into being, and the New Testament came into force, on the Day of Pentecost in Acts chapter 2.

The thief on the cross may well have been a case of salvation apart from baptism. But that has no more relevance for us today than the story of Abraham, or of Moses, or of David. They were not baptized either, but they did not live under the New Covenant. Zaccheus is sometimes given as a case of salvation apart from baptism, but the same situation applies there. He was not living under the New Covenant.

You wrote:

“Baptism is not grace.”

No, but we receive grace through Baptism.

“It is an outward act that shows an inward change.”

No. It is an outward sign of an inward movement of grace.

“The thief that died with Jesus on the cross was not baptized, yet he went to paradise.”

Which says nothing against Baptism. The thief on the cross could not be baptized.

“It is not the act itself that saves.”

Grace saves. We recieve grace through Baptism.

“But it is an outward expression and a declaration to the world of the inward change.”

No. It is an outward sign of an inward movement of grace. Grace makes the true change, not merely a cerebral belief or even a change in attitude or even a determination to follow Christ. Grace is transformative. It truly has power.