You think that “unless one is born of water and the Spirit” is a reference to baptism?
It’s not. It’s a reference to Ezekiel 36:25-27, where God speaks of cleansing His people’s hearts.
You can see this reference again in Titus 3:5.
And in both cases, the Lord gets the glory, not the act of baptism. We Christians are commanded to be baptized, and it’s an act of obedience to be baptized. But baptism doesn’t contribute anything further to our salvation that the Lord’s sacrifice on the cross did not accomplish.
... are references to baptism as well.
But baptism doesn’t contribute anything further to our salvation that the Lord’s sacrifice on the cross did not accomplish
It makes that sacrifice apply to the one baptized (Rm 3:6). It is not some trifle demand that Christ made for no reason.