Values contest looms in ’04; election is more likely to turn more on Americans’ fundamental values

The Hill ^ | 10-07-03

[Brian S]

Even in these turbulent economic times, the outcome of the 2004 election is more likely to turn more on Americans’ fundamental values than on their responses to any short-term issues like the economy.

Although campaigning Democrats and Republicans will debate the usual menu of public policy issues, from anti-ballistic missile to Zaire, most voters will choose the nominee who most closely reflects their beliefs about things such as right and wrong, patriotism and disloyalty, fairness and injustice.

Even though the thought makes liberals and Democrats cringe, I suspect that the controversy over the Ten Commandments is a harbinger of things to come in 2004. I don’t believe an explicit debate over the commandments or monuments to them will swing the vote, but the values underlying the opinions of voters on both sides of this issue are crucial.

The Gallup Organization recently looked at the Ten Commandments controversy from that perspective. Gallup’s polling has always had a better eye and ear for values questions than any of the other major public polling operations.

Gallup reported last week on polls taken in August and September showing strong disapproval — 77 percent — of the federal court’s removal of Judge Roy Moore’s Ten Commandments monument from Alabama’s judicial building. Furthermore, the Gallup surveys found that those opinions cut across virtually every significant demographic and political segment of the electorate.

An even more recent Gallup poll, this one taken Sept. 19-21, found that 90 percent of Americans approve of the inscription “In God We Trust” on U.S. coins and 78 percent approve of “nondenominational prayer” during ceremonies at public schools.

The same poll also found that 71 percent of Americans think it would be a good thing for the Bible to be displayed on the desks of public school teachers.

Those findings — in support of displays of religious symbols — hint at a deeper, more influential set of core beliefs.

A February 2003 Gallup poll revealed the underlying values that drive support for public religiosity. That poll found that 58 percent of all Americans believe that “religion can answer all or most of today’s problems” while just 27 percent chose the other option, that “religion is largely old-fashioned and out of date.”

Another key Gallup insight on Americans’ values is derived from responses to this question: “Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your own view?” A solid majority, 58 percent, told Gallup last month that government should promote traditional values while just 40 percent took the option of governmental neutrality.

On those two key barometers of public sentiment, Gallup polls show that almost six in 10 Americans think that a healthy does of religion and traditional values would benefit our nation and its policies. The importance of those long-term beliefs surely transcends debates over the issue of the week.

The Gallup News Service’s own analysis of public reactions to the USA Patriot Act, for example, contends that beliefs that government “should promote traditional values” figure into support for the controversial anti-terrorism legislation.

In the latter years of the Clinton reign, Democrats realized they were coming up short on values. In 2000, Anna and Stanley Greenberg, prominent and respected Democratic strategists, began to push for Democratic values initiatives. Republicans must now follow suit to exploit the current conservative values structure.

When Gallup last polled on the topic of which party “better shares your values,” shortly before the 2002 election, a single percentage point separated the two parties. Forty-six percent chose Republicans, and 45 percent chose the Democrats. Only a few years earlier, the gap was significantly wider in the GOP’s favor.

Values such as those of the Ten Commandments may define the battlegrounds of 2004.

Dr. David Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for Re-publican candidates and causes since 1988.

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[Munson]

Thats why im not likely to support the Democratic or Republican party candidate, if election 2004 is a values food fight Im gonna vote Libertarian again.

[jwalsh07]

This fellow happens to be right. Everybody said the last election would be about the economy, they were wrong, those of us who said it was about security were right.

The economy is growing, unemployment has seemed to peak and if that continues the economy will be a bit further in the voters minds.

The culture war and the war on terror will be front and center and that doesn't bode well for the left.

Hopefully, at any rate.

[mtbopfuyn]

But all those good moral American citizens keptp BJ and Shrillary in office all those decades...

[VigilantEye]

August and September, 2003 poll on Ten Commandments

Sept. 19-21, 2003 poll on “In God We Trust”

February 2003 poll on Religiosity

September 2003 poll on Traditional Values

From the above polls, which I must admit its results are very positive and reassuring, how does Gallop determine that the 2004 election will be based more on traditional values than on the economy? As compared or relative to what? Have the positive responses to the above polls improved from a prior poll? Where are the comparative figures? This is nothing more than a snapshot for a relative short period of time and, by itself, is meaningless unless comparative figures can show a measurable increase in traditional values. I think in the end performance of the economy, the war on terror, the debates etc will be the primary factors that will determine the next presidential election.

[billhilly]

What a way to call it a day and go to sleep. Thank you for posting this good news.

[mamarainsberry]

This hits the nail on the head.

The dems think by being loud and obvious they are in the majority. No they are just the most obnoxious. The 71% of us go quietly to the polls, tell the exit poll people "none of your business" and vote republican.

If you don't believe it check in at a dem site tomorrow as they whine and cry about "what happened in California?" it will be an instant replay of 2002. All the dems could say was "what happened??"

What happened was the 3/4 majority who doesn't buy your liberal, facist, hypocrisy went to the polls and voted.

[madprof98]

When Gallup last polled on the topic of which party “better shares your values,” shortly before the 2002 election, a single percentage point separated the two parties. Forty-six percent chose Republicans, and 45 percent chose the Democrats. Only a few years earlier, the gap was significantly wider in the GOP’s favor.

With Arnold safely under the Big Tent, surely all moral Americans will rush to embrace GOP values.

[Chuckster]

All those decades = eight years?

[Aquinasfan]

We pro-lifers have to find a means of distributing 4D ultrasound images far and wide. Republicans should hold up the images and challenge the Democrats to say, "yes, I'm willing to allow that baby to die."

[jmaroneps37]

If this is true, we can't lose.