It was dangerous ploy, playing right into the wheelhouse of the most powerful RAT constituency. Do you really think that Arnold is at risk of losing union votes with this position? The unions are going to camaigh hard against him, to be sure. But the unions can never know how there members will actually vote. But can the membership who might vote for arnold be that significant? And could such a subtle message make rain? I doubt it.
Bustamante is only getting, at best, 2/3 of the Democrat vote (the Democrat vote being an outright majority in California, and Bustamante only polling at around 32%). There are plenty of Democrats who have not been energized to vote for him, and Arnold is probably drawing a decent chunk. I don't have data, but it is not a bad supposition to assume that some of those Bustamante is not are union rank-and-file, not following their union leaders (it is a regular consticuency where Democrats lose votes in elections).
I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it, but I agree with Ambrose that this will likely be the point of the debate that RATS turn to in order to get a little "red meat" at the end. They have no other place to get it out of this debate, and really, Arnold didn't need to give them even this. It was an easy red flag to see.
It seems subtle to us -- but as one who grew up in a union family, and is surrounded by union neighbors, it doesn't take much to get them riled up, they all live their lives concerend that the "wrong kind" of Republicans are trying to make workers into slaves to companies. They won't let it be subtle: the D's are pouring over the debate with a fine tooth comb looking for something that they can demagogue. And this is what they'll come up with.
One of the best indicators I have had about the union supporting someone and the members not voting the same way was here in Oklahoma in our Right to Work campaign. The princincts around the GM plant which were heavily union voted to support Right to Work even though the union had signs out everywhere to vote NO! The workers, themselves, voted yes overwhelmingly in those precincts.
Taught me a lesson to ignore what the union leaders are saying and concentrate on individual union members in those precincts.
Same thing happened in our Congressional election in 2002 -- lots of signs out for the RAT opponent in those precincts but they voted for the Republican. In fact those same precincts are represented in the OK House by a Republican!
Union members should never be written off as automatically voting DemocRAT! Their leaders yes, but not the rank and file!