*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

I suggest you retreat while you still have a chance, sir.

LOL. I won't fault her too much, "that Rabbit's dynamite!" I'll wait while some of the other (R)nold Groupies go and change their armor.

[69ConvertibleFirebird]

Why not post the margin of error? It's usually about 3 percent. If it is the usual number it's a toss up with McClintock. With all of the dead/illegal DemocRATs voting that would give Bust-a-move the win.

Go with a Republican in CA rather than vote for the McClintock/Bust-a-move ticket.

[pogo101]

All electability-predicting polls are hypothetical, including the polls showing Schwarzenegger in the lead.

Nice try, but we both know that, even if one credited your response somehow, the poll result you're touting here is one "layer" MORE hypothetical: It presumes that Arnold is not an option. (I am assuming that it also presumes, effectively, that any absentee votes already cast for Arnold, hundreds of thousands of them by now, somehow could be re-directed to Tom, which isn't true.)

Arnold NOT being an option is a much more unlikely hypothetical, to put it mildly, than the general, unavoidable hypothetical nature inherent in any poll.

[TheBigB]

If you go to the source, you'll see that no MOE was listed. I gave all info that Mr. Robinson posted. I'm hoping he'll reply to my request for more.

[deport]

When 70% of your so called base isn't supporting you then something is wrong....... Why is it they won't support McClintock?

[Hoverbug]

Absolutely correct SteveH!

I've seen press Arnold press releases written for Arnold by others that the Arnold supporters rave about.

I've seen Arnold position pieces written for him by others that the Arnold supporters rave about.

I've heard speeches by Arnold written for him by others that his supporters rave about.

He takes a step on his own, and immediately falls on his face, and the supporters' are strangely quiet. They don't even come back with examples of his "media savvy" other than more examples written for him by others.

The guy's an empty suit and puppet. A front man. If he's elected, the governor of California will be his handlers, not Arnold.

Hb

[JCEccles]

And Dewey beat Truman.

Hypothetically.

[pogo101]

Try to limit your posting of the SAME graphic more than once in a thread. You've posted several different ones, and I suppose that's fine, but when I see the exact same one a second time,

well, you get the idea.

[Roscoe]

It presumes that Arnold is not an option.

His hatred of "right wing crazies" will keep Arnold in the race.

[tallhappy]

But, again: the poll result to which you're referring derives from a hypothetical situation that is, at best, unlikely to be presented to voters.

True.

And the other one is also hypothetical.

In the real race it is at best 50-50 for Schwarzenegger.

[Sloth]

You supported Clinton in 1996, eh?

[JCEccles]

You really don't want McClintock to win, do you?

[Dave S]

When 70% of your so called base isn't supporting you then something is wrong....... Why is it they won't support McClintock?

I just cant wait for PeoplesRep or his ilk to say its because the 70% of the Republican base is either too stupid or too unprincipled to vote for a real conservative. ROTWL

[tallhappy]

Do you know when this was taken? Was it recent or was it sometime back when they made their endorsement? Any Ideas?

I don't know. My idea is it is recent. They track. And, if it were not recent it would have already been leaked.

But I don't know.

[NYC Republican]

I see you've posted again, yet ran away from all the points I made. I think you definitely count as #1!

Great! I'm on your S--- list. I'll wear it as a badge of honor...

Anyone calling me a lib is ignorant of my viewpoints. The good thing about FR is that you can view Posting history. I have thousands of posts here, all of them easily reviewable.

I view Arnold as our best shot at capturing the Governorship. It's purely a pragmatic viewpoint. As I've stated numerous times, I strongly prefer Tom's policies, but don't feel he has a chance at winning. So... it's Arnold or Cruz

If that makes me a lib, so be it... Twisted logic, IMO.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

You've posted several different ones, and I suppose that's fine, but when I see the exact same one a second time,

Yes, that's true. I agree, but in that specific case I felt like it was appropriate.

[pogo101]

Uh ... HUH.

You're not engaging in debate. The most one can take from your snotty (yes?) post about Dewey and Truman is that no polls ever should matter. Which makes you even more of a hypocrite.

You haven't responded substantively to my point that a head-on poll that gets results among the CURRENTLY-RUNNING FIELD OF CANDIDATES is a heck of a lot less "hypothetical" than one that fantasizes, "Well, what if one of them weren't running? Then what?"

If you'd been paying attention, you'd have noted that I came into this thread with the rather pro-Tom observation that the poll at least disproves any notion that "Tom never could have won anyway," and suggests that in the future he's a solid option for the GOP in a race that includes a PRIMARY. But apparently anyone not precisely toeing the McClintock campaign line is to be engaged with juvenile, non-responsive debating tactics.

[B Knotts]

And the thing is, you know Mulholland is gonna widely distributed the Mapplethorpe nude photos beginning on about Oct. 4. This guy is damaged goods, and should drop out now and endorse McClintock, while the gettin's good.

[PhiKapMom]

If only 30% of conservatives are for McC -- does that mean that the other 70% are Arnold's base?

[tallhappy]

Again I ask you why doesn't the CA Conservative base support McClintock with more than 30% of their vote?

I think it is beat dog syndrome. No confidence. They do think "Tom Can't Win" because they've been told so much he can't.

I think also the incompetence of the Republicans has fosters a sense of doom so they play defense and support the candidate the media says will win.