Look Into The Eye of The Storm: 32 Hours Til Isabel Arrives

NHC | 9-17-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Good Morning Freepers....

[HughSeries]

Interesting predictions the guy's making.

Is JetMaxx a meteorologist or an informed weather hobbyist or enthusiast?

[discostu]

Jebus every time we reach an agreement you comeback and insist I'm wrong. I now know that no matter what I say you will disagree, if I told you it's stuffy in my office today you're probably going to tell me I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. Whatever. Tell you what, I'll just make a mental note that everything I say think or do you disagree with, is that enough for you to stop pestering me? Of should I change my tag to let everybody know that you disagree with what they just read from me?

[STONEWALLS]

"Montgomery County Maryland schools are also closed."

Ditto for Prince George's County.....my wife teaches at Anne Arundel Comm College.....she's not going in tomorrow irregardless because our farm sits in the fork of two tributaries of the Little Patuxent.....when they flood we're stuck until they subside.....fortunately Howard County is rolling terrain so the water runs off fairly quickly; usually within 24 hours or so.....

Good luck to all!

Stonewalls

[Gabz]

You're right and I promise to abide my your wisdom.

When I get back from taking my daughter out for pizza.

who knows when I will be able to get out of the house after this!!!

Talk to you later.

[Chemist_Geek]

I will consider it HIGHLY irresponsible of them. And not just because I have a Chem lab assignment I haven't finished yet due tomorrow...:D :D

Hmm... Sounds like my old thesis advisor... "Ice storm and blizzard? So? Why aren't you in the lab?" ;-)

Good luck! (With both the storm and the lab)

[witnesstothefall]

Silly man, please be quiet. There's a serious storm approaching and your atmospherics are wasting everyone's time.

[Howlin]

He tells a little about himself on this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=14645


But what drew OUR attention to him was this a few days ago:

JetMaxx
Category 5 Hurricane
Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 14449
Location: Douglasville, Georgia Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2003 12:07 am
Post subject:

---

Scott...I'm very concerned...this is a lot like what occurred with Hugo and Hazel.. The hurricane weakens from the the sharp direction change....and drifts slowly northward. Then as the sharper trough approaches, Isabel accelerates like it's been shot out of a cannon...all the while intensifying as it TURNS BACK TO THE NW toward Cape Hatteras UNDERNEATH the high pressure to the north which enhances outflow....a "squeeze play" over warm waters and warmer Gulf Stream -- and the result is a deepening monster hurricane at landfall....just as the 18z GFS proggs (as does the ETA).... I foresee Isabel making landfall as at least a 130 mph hurricane....and a 135-140 mph cat-4 won't surprise me. This synoptic pattern I see setting up also reminds me of the 1938 Long Island Express hurricane -- except instead of racing northward into Long Island and Connecticut, the orientation will be NW then NNW from between Cape Lookout and Manteo area - then rapidly inland west and south of Norfolk towards Richmond and Washington DC --- that's why it reminds me of Hugo...the turn toward the coast and acceleration will be toward the NW...then NNW after landfall. It is potentially catastrophic Scott....and it's what Stacey Stewart was hinting at yesterday and James Franklin this afternoon about possibly rapid intensification just prior to landfall. If it happens, God help anyone that fails to evacuate the coast from Morehead City to at least Ocean City...and possibly southern Jersey (not to mention areas surrounding Chesapeake and Delaware Bay). This is already a large hurricane...and global models forecast it to get even larger around time of landfall. In 1954, hurricane Hazel's devastating storm surge destroyed every pier from Myrtle Beach, SC to Cedar Island, NC...a 170 mile long stretch. That's what we may witness in 72 hours -- except farther north.

[deport]

Kansas hurricanes are different don'tcha know.....

Have you'all had a lot of rain lately and is the ground saturated? If so, then even minimal storms will do a lot of damage regarding trees as there's very little hard/stable soil to hold the roots. Especially were there hasn't been a storm in a few years to prune the limbs/growth.

There was a minimal that came into the Houston area a few years ago. It dropped over 30 inches of rain in a 24 hr period in some areas.... Huge mess, flooding, etc. Property damage can be significant...

Stay safe, hunker down and things should be okay. Maybe no electricty for a few days.... I think crews are on the road from some of the Utilities now headed to the east coast..... The utilities have gotten better about planning for these events and now start moving crews days earlier into the fringe areas where the storm is likely to hit so that they can be availabe to begin restoration as soon as the weather permits and the local groups get things organized...

[Interesting Times]

Best not to feed the troll.

[Howlin]

Notice I didn't take my own advice........LOL. But I've "learnt" my lesson!

[U S Army EOD]

I would assume that first the pressure drops then the wind speeds up. Something that massive would take time to change speed. It would have a lot air to acelerate so the build up in speed would be some what slow. So the pressure would have to affect the wind not the wind affect the pressure. Therefore whatever the pressure is doing you can expect the wind to do at a later time once it is able to build up the motion.

[Vinnie]

Thanks,
I'm surprised at the predictions of wind here. I'm expecting higher.

[discostu]

My atmospherics. But if I lived in the path I'd be allowed to lie about people and slander them right? Those are the atmospherics you should be telling to be quiet.

[Howlin]

Honestly, I just never knew Kansas and Arizona had hurricanes.

We have had a lot of rain, but not like north of us. I don't know if you'd call it saturated or not; some of the folks who live around here would know better than I.

This is a HUGE storm, over 300 miles across. And the NHC guy just said again on the Durham channel that we may have SUSTAINED winds of 35 to 40 mph.

[NautiNurse]

My anatomy prof came to UNC-CH from Buffalo. Ragged all over us about Southerners and our reaction to winter weather. Of course, we were pummeled with 21" snow one night.

All but three in our class trudged to our lecture that day. The professor didn't make it in, and thought we were nuts.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"Is JetMaxx a meteorologist or an informed weather hobbyist or enthusiast?"

I believe he is a pro. .

Imho...Jettmaxx is a weatherman for a local am station. This certain weatherman is very good and was the only local guy(TV or radio) that predicted the blizzard on March 13, 1993. Up to the day of the blizzard, all the other local weather guys predicted 2-3 inches of snow, and we got 24-36 inches and 35 mph winds.

[U S Army EOD]

When I was much younger I saw a movie about a young girl and a little dog from Kansas riding out a toronado in a house. You are right they didn't seem to have much of a problem and the house held up fine.

[Vinnie]

I spent hours on a roof today. Watched the cirrus clouds slowly move in from the S and E.

The odd thing was the clouds were moving East, clockwise.

I summized that it was the outflow. I found it facinating.

[bd476]

Update: The National Data Buoy Center lists the following report from Station 41002, a moored buoy located 250 nautical miles East of Charlotte, North Carolina:

17 September 2003 4:00 p.m. EDT (Station Local Time) or 1:00 p.m. PDT

Wind Speed: 36.9 kts (24 hrs ago: 23.1 kts)

Wind Gust: 44.7 kts (24 hrs ago: 29.1 kts)

Wave Height: 23.9 ft (24 hrs ago: 22.3 ft)

Atmospheric Pressure: 29.6 in (24 hrs ago: 29.9 in)

Pressure Tendency: 0.11 in (falling rapidly) (24 hrs ago: 0.03 in)

The buoy in calmer times:

[NCjim]

Looking on the bright side, there is a beautiful breeze here in North Raleigh...