Posted on 09/17/2003 1:45:35 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Good Morning Freepers....
we had a substation explode last year... I got a 12V accessory light (autozone replacement thing) and a car battery (extra from my truck) and wired them together. we sat in the kitchen and listened to the (12V) boombox with the little ones. let them pick their favorite songs while we watched the thunderheads roll by... soon we had neighbors showing up with beer and munchies... they saw the only lights in the hood. LOL. entertaining yer little one is secondary to keeping her secure, which is why you are mom, and she is daughter. you'll do fine.
Something makes me think you will get your wish...
and yes, i know the Lord will take care of us. i just want it over with, i find the worst part sitting around waiting for the inevitable!
Hurricane Isabel local statement
Their 9:00 statement gives further estimates of landfall location and timing:
The center of Isabel is forecast to make landfall near Cape Lookout early Thursday afternoon...then move inland just west of Albemarle Sound and into eastern Virginia Thursday night.
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac. At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches. Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers. Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel. There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT. Forecaster Avila |
MKM
Isabel lacks a well-defined inner core and deep convection is minimal at this time. In fact...satellite intensity estimates suggest that maximum winds are on the order of 75 to 80 knots. Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that maximum flight-level winds are about 100 knots so far on this mission...with the central pressure unchanged. Assuming that the reconnaissance plane has not sampled the entire circulation...the initial intensity is kept generously at 90 knots. If the plane does not find higher winds soon...it may be necessary to decrease the intensity in the next advisory. On the other hand...since the outflow is excellent and the hurricane has about 12 hours over warm waters...there is still a chance that some re-intensification may occur just before landfall. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Isabel is moving about 330 degrees at 11 knots. The steering pattern calls for a general north-northwestward to northwestward track as the high builds to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. This motion would bring the center of the hurricane to the coast of North Carolina during the day on Thursday. There is confidence in the official forecast since the more reliable track models are highly clustered within 40 nautical miles near landfall. However...one should not focus on a precise landfall point since Isabel is a large hurricane with damaging winds extending well away from the center. Once Isabel moves inland...it should gradually become extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger cyclone in 3 or 4 days. Forecaster Avila/Pasch |
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