[southernnorthcarolina]

The 11 AM report indicates more good news on all fronts -- unless you're an employee of The Weather Channel, in which case, you are deeply saddened.

Since Sunday morning, peak sustained winds have dropped from 160 mph to 105. Central pressure continues to rise steadily. And clearly, the long-awaited turn in direction has taken place.

Over the last 30 hours (Monday, 5 AM to today, 11 AM), Isabel has moved 3.0 degrees north while moving 2.2 degrees west. Compare that with the 30-hour period before that (Sunday, 11 PM through Monday, 5 AM), during which time it moved 1.8 degrees north while moving 5.3 degrees west.

As recently as yesterday, The Weather Channel was conjuring up visions of 30-foot storm surges, and an epic coastal catastrophe. I would submit that they knew then that they were crying "wolf," and that a substantial weakening was inevitable. Even if it does hit the coast (and I still have my doubts), Isabel will be closer to a nuisance than it will be to a cataclysm.

Quit drinking TWC's Kool Ade!

[NittanyLion]

As recently as yesterday, The Weather Channel was conjuring up visions of 30-foot storm surges, and an epic coastal catastrophe. I would submit that they knew then that they were crying "wolf," and that a substantial weakening was inevitable. Even if it does hit the coast (and I still have my doubts), Isabel will be closer to a nuisance than it will be to a cataclysm.

I think that's part of the reason, but mostly I think the forecasters are reluctant to adjust their forecasts based upon personal pride. So I suspect that the discussion taking place are biased toward previous discussions, instead of looking at the current scenario objectively.

[dennis1x]

but now theyll switch to the catastrophic rain event angle....it never ends...

[oceanview]

the best news report I heard was an interview on NYC local news with a woman in Seagate Brooklyn, right along the water. Her quote:

"its not the water that concerns me, but I think the 160MPH winds are going to be a problem"

[dirtboy]

Even if it does hit the coast (and I still have my doubts), Isabel will be closer to a nuisance than it will be to a cataclysm.

Uh, Floyd was a Cat 2 when it hit NC. Part of the problem is that, as Isabel's winds slow, it is getting wider - which means there will be a longer period of rain for the affected areas, and possibly more flooding. In addition, as it gets larger, the fetch, or length of ocean that the winds blow over, increases, which could well increase wave heights.

Don't downplay this system just yet. The region that Isabel is headed for is already saturated by rain. Freshwater flooding will probably be the greatest threat here. And, if the storm takes a slight turn to the north, it could move the storm along the length of the coast from Hatteras to Montauk, which would cause damage to shore properties for a long, long distance - the lack of intensity being replaced by the size of the affected area.

Hopefully this bitch will speed up, go through central NC and up into western PA as a tropical storm and not linger long enough to cause catastrophic flooding. That's the best case scenario here.