I think that's part of the reason, but mostly I think the forecasters are reluctant to adjust their forecasts based upon personal pride. So I suspect that the discussion taking place are biased toward previous discussions, instead of looking at the current scenario objectively.
Well considering the size of the storm earlier and the size of the population in the target area, I would think that it is better to err on the side of caution in order to evacuate if necessary. It takes *time* to do that unfortunately.
I am from southwest Louisiana and I know people who survived Hurricane Audrey. Those people were told to get a good night's rest and then evacuate in the morning, the only problem was the storm sped up and people were trapped by flooded roads and a 20 foot storm surge at high tide. To this day they get out of dodge if there is any chance of a direct hit.
Just last year with Lily we had to evacuate early because the storm surge was predicted to come inland up to I 10. Fortunately I had family up north because there were no hotel rooms anywhere south of Dallas or Arkansas. The traffic was a nightmare. It took us 5 hours to travel what normally took 1 hour.
Thank God it turned and weakened at the last minute and where it went in was not very populated. It was a pain getting my disabled father and all the pets in the car for a very long ride, but we had a great time visiting with the family and was glad and thankful to have a home to come back to.