Posted on 09/16/2003 1:13:54 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.
Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.
Absolutely. I couldn't sleep and came down to check the latest. I must say, though, that I'm much less "antsy" than I was yesterday morning. I do recall seeing models of previous hurricane tracks that indicated category changes plummeting throughout their paths, only to build back up again as they neared the coast. At this point, it's still a matter of wait-and-see.
...ISABEL CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD...BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 435 MILES...700 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...26.6 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
I could be wrong, but I thought it was some unexpected dry air rather than shear. Anyway, it's very good news for people in its path.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT.......140NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 300SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 70.5W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.6N 71.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.0N 72.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.7N 73.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 74.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.0N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 45.5N 79.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 55.0N 76.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 70.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap030916.html
Hurricane Isabel Approaches
Credit: Terra Satellite, EOS, NASA
Explanation: Where will Hurricane Isabel go? One of the stronger storm systems of modern times appears headed for one the more populated seaboards on planet Earth -- the east coast of the USA. Hurricane Isabel, pictured yesteday as it passed east of the Bahamas, has flirted with category 5 status, the most powerful hurricane category. Hurricanes are huge swirling storms with cloud systems typically larger than a state. Tropical cyclones, called hurricanes in Earth's Western Hemisphere and typhoons in the Eastern Hemisphere, get their immense energy from warm evaporated ocean water. As this water vapor cools and condenses, it heats the air, lowers pressure and hence causes cooler air to come swooshing in. Winds can reach over 250 kilometers per hour and become very dangerous. Much remains unknown about cyclones, including how they are formed and the exact path they will take.
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