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000 WTNT23 KNHC 160832
TCMAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
0900Z TUE SEP 16 2003

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT.......140NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 300SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.6N 71.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.0N 72.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.7N 73.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 74.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.0N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 45.5N 79.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 55.0N 76.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 70.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN