Hurricane Isabel Is Falling Apart/But Could Re-Gain Strength-Live Thread

NHC | 9-16-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.

Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.

[Nexus]

Dangit, I meant that the new moisture is coming from the SE, not SW. </morning fogginess, I hope>

Anyway, I think today is the day it must reorganize, or it won't at all.

[Gabz]

I lived in one of their flight paths for 11 years - I always knew when bad weather was approaching - even without turning on TV or Radio or computer!!!!

[shezza]

If you type in 1989 and look at Hugo, it has the same pattern of losing strength, then, well you know what happened then...

Good point. Hugo on Friday 15 SEP 1989 was a Category 5 out in the Caribbean. On Saturday and Sunday it dropped to a Cat 4, on Monday it was a Cat 3 and Tuesday and Wednesday it had dropped to a Cat 2 with winds barely over 100mph and pressure of 958MB. By Thursday it had popped back up to a Cat 4 with winds of 138mph and it struck the SC coast in the wee hours of Friday morning, leaving $7 billion in damage in its wake.

[djf]

I'm always trying to figure out why they tear down and block off homes near an airport. There's hundreds of empty houses near Sea-Tac. Don't deaf people live in houses? Where do they live? In trees? In holes in the ground?

[nina0113]

yep - it was on WTOP this am - moving 40 or so ships out of Norfolk.

[AnAmericanMother]

LOL! Will the dogs devour her by the wall of Jezreel?

[RipSawyer]

"If you type in 1989 and look at Hugo, it has the same pattern of losing strength, then, well you know what happened then..."


Some people have no idea what happened then, some years after Hugo I had a conversation with a translanted Yankee in Myrtle Beach who informed me that, "I won't ever worry about a Hurricane again because everybody said Hugo was going to be so bad and it didn't amount to anything." This fool actualy thought Hugo had hit Myrtle Beach. I wonder what some people use for brains.

[CobaltBlue]

Excellent resource. Thank you for the link.

I see Dare NC just issued a mandatory evacuation warning.
http://208.11.168.6/EmgyMgmt/Alert/index.asp

[Trust but Verify]

They're not sending everything to sea. There are some ships staying, including 2 CVN's.

[Fresh Wind]

Latest satellite imagery from NOAA is suggesting that Izzy is now down to a cat 2 hurricane!! The eye is not even visible in some of the latest views. Still too early to relax, though.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

110 Knots (over 120 MPH) is hardly falling apart. It could likely intensify as it crosses the warm Gulf Stream.

[TBall]

How wide is the Gulf stream?

[NautiNurse]

roughly 50 miles wide

[Fresh Wind]

[BluH2o]

If you type in 1989 and look at Hugo, it has the same pattern of losing strength, then, well you know what happened then...

A hurricane, such as Isabel, approaching the east coast can regenerate over the warm waters (80+F)of the Gulf Stream. Especially so if the hurricane starts tracking WNW as it approaches the eastern seaboard, following the axis of the Gulf Stream.

[Hatteras]

In relation to your satellite pic, here's The Gulf Stream (the orange streak along the coast):

My suspicion is still that this thing could get knocked down to a mid CAT2 or even lower by the passing front, get in behind the front and start rebuilding as it crosses the Gulf Stream and come ashore further south toward Wilmington on a more westerly track. I hope it doesn't but little events like Hurricane Hugo stick in the back of my mind like storm projectiles through vinyl siding.

[CobaltBlue]

Hey, Hatteras, aren't you supposed to be evacuating?

[commish]

Your 134 image is more telling than the visible above it. In the visible the clouds look to be wrapping nicely, but as u can see in the infrared, the reds and purples have not yet rewrapped. As long as the coldest cloud top do not rewrap she will stay where she is or weaken, but if they start wrapping that will be a sign she is getting her act back together.

One worrisome aspect in these pics though - the clear hole from last night is gone, while not real cold cloud tops, the cloud have closed back off around her -- this could be a sign that she is moving out of the shear, and signals that the possibility of reintensification is present.

[Hatteras]

EVACUATE?!! FORGET IT! I'M LASHED TO THE MAINMAST AND I'M RIDING THIS BABY OUT!!!

Actually, I'm in Durham right now and am rethinking whether I have enough Corona to get through the weekend.

[Fresh Wind]

Yes, Izzy still has the potential for some serious mischief and unpleasant surprises. Can't truly relax till she's gone for good.