Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Diddle E. Squat]

Any Jim Cantori sightings yet?

He was spotted preparing for the hurricane, down at the tanning booth and manicurist.

[Sam Cree]

I found this:

"It was a natural collaboration, and Molinari and Idone, and their co-workers Paul Moore and Ronald Henderson, chose Hurricane Andrew, one of the most intense hurricanes in U.S. history, as their first joint research project.

To "look" at lightning during that hurricane in August 1992, they gathered the records of all lightning strikes recorded by the network within 300 kilometers of the center of the storm.

Andrew took a path across the southern tip of Florida and then moved northwest across the Gulf of Mexico before striking Louisiana. For most of its path across the Gulf of Mexico, Andrew was within the range of the network.

The locations of the 11,765 recorded lightning strikes were then superimposed on satellite images of the hurricane to determine what, if any, correlations could be made between lightning activity and hurricane cloud structure.

Much of what they found, says Molinari, was not surprising.

Most of the lightning occurred in the outer rainbands of Andrew, the area more than 125-150 kilometers from the center. This area of a hurricane is known to have the kinds of weather conditions conducive to producing lightning. There's a lot of "convective" instability, in other words, circulating air currents, updrafts and downdrafts.

Also not surprising was the virtual absence of lightning at the very center, or eye, of the storm.

Considerably more surprising and intriguing was what they discovered about the eyewall, the wall of clouds around the eye.

The eyewall, explains Molinari, is the heart of a hurricane, its driving force. It has driving winds, the storm's heaviest precipitation, and big, tall clouds. Frequent lightning might be expected in such an environment.

And in fact, Molinari and Idone found that there were outbreaks of significant amounts of lightning in the eyewall. But the outbreaks were episodic, preceded and followed by long periods of virtually no lightning. And most intriguing, says Molinari, was the fact that the three main episodes of lightning in the eyewall occurred just before, or as, Andrew intensified.

here: http://www.albany.edu/feature/lightning/

In fact, Andrew *was* intensifying in the Gulf Stream, when I heard the lightning. I can tell you it spooked me, hearing it, knowing what was coming.

[Ryzaroo]

Well that is good to know. It's been a long time since I lived there (91-92) but I used to drive to Fenwick all the time for peace and quiet. Beat the heck out of O.C. ( and 5 roommates).....I spent many a day there in Fenwick relaxing on the beach- loving every second of it.

The only thing *close* to that I got in O.C. was when I worked at a supermarket on 42nd( I think) and Bay- I would sit on the loading dock and bask in the serenity of bayside.

[Gabz]

Hurricanes can, and do, actually change beaches also .... they can open up new inlets and close others where you have barrier islands.

You're right.

And they also wipe out and create new barrier islands.

Just take a look at old maps of the Atlantic side of the the DelMarVa Penninsula - after each hurricane and sometimes nor'easters, the maps all had to be changed.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

Perhaps the most stupid woman on the planet called Drudge tonight. She thinks the storm is a conspiracy by Bush to help the economy that he can't get started. She says that it won't hit, but people are spending all kinds of money getting supplies.

Typical DUh moron to blame a hurricane on Bush. Everybody knows al Quaeda will claim credit for the storm. ;^)

[_Jim]

I wish I could come on here and say "you're all overreacting", but, such isn't the case. This sucker represents a real threat coming ashore and a continuing threat (due to wind and heavy rain plus tornados) once inland ...

[Moose4]

Hmm. If she follows the pink or green lines, Isabel is going to go right over my mother's house in Lynchburg, Virginia. The orange line will graze us in Charlotte this weekend and God only knows what that much rain would do to the soaked mountains in Virginia and West Virginia--not to mention what those three westerly tracks would do to Wilmington or Myrtle Beach and on up to you in the Triangle.

The ones that scare me are the yellow and light blue lines...I've never seen a hurricane path like that. With that angle and the Chesapeake Bay there, she could smack Norfolk/Virginia Beach et al, DC, and Baltimore while still a hurricane. And Baltimore and its suburbs would be on the strongest side of the hurricane too.

This is going to be ugly no matter what at this point.

}:-)4

[Gabz]

The City of Dover and Dover in the sense of being the state capitol might crave the money - but it is NASCAR and Dover Downs - that I believe will make the first call about postponing the race. The possible liability involved? not just for the drivers, but the fans. Dover Downs and NASCAR are not stupid businesses.

and if a state of emergency is declared by the state or even the feds - it would be a moot point anyway.

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

Everybody knows al Quaeda will claim credit for the storm. ;^)

Not all that far-fetched. Kamikaze pilots flew planes into things, just like Al Qaeda. The word 'kamikaze' translates to English as 'divine wind'. If a hurricane hit D.C., I'm sure Al Qaeda would consider it to be a very divine wind. OK, I'm reaching, but I have one of those minds that notices weird connections between things.

[Heatseeker]

Very true. Most people have absolutely no clue how bad this could be. For starters, anybody planning to stay at the beach resorts or in homes along the Bay and rivers had better know how to tread water while dodging debris flying by at 120 mph.

Ocean City Maryland is built on a glorified sand bar, and storms like this can wash it completely away.

[Gabz]

Got my attention!

Sure got mine - and the earlier ones got hubby's.

After dinner we did a double check of supplies and stuff and thought of a couple other things we could use. so we divied up the lists with a plan to call each other around noon if one or the other is having a problem with any tiems. No big deal on anything, just some things that will make life a bit easier - like an old fashioned percolater that can go on the side burner of the gas grill - hub calls it a Cowboy Coffee Pot.

We already have all the essentials, except for the back-up tank for the gas grill. That's definitively on his list, not mine!!!

[U S Army EOD]

Check out what happened to Ship Island during Camille. That is exactly what happened, the island had been there since the coming of the white man and it got cut into.

[11th_VA]

Latest Wind and position projections:

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.3N 76.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

This means we could see MAX sustained winds of 103 mph, gusting to 125 mph at the mouth of the Potomac River (38.3N 76.8W). This is gonna be one for my kids to tell their grandkids ...

[Gabz]

Wouldn't it would be loverly????????!!!!!!!!!!

[U S Army EOD]

Wow, that area has probably never seen any winds like that and that is pretty far up the Bay. If I were you I might consider buying some camping equipment that would allow you to dig slit trenches in the yard to get rid of waste. You might not get help for a very long time if a large area is effected.

[Heatseeker]

I hope you're right. Even without the race, I'm guessing Rt 13 will be a nightmare by late Wednesday.

Tell anybody who know along either coast, but especially Chincoteague, OC, etc, to get ready to bug out NOW. You know lots of the tourist types will wait until the last minute and then freak out.

[Atchafalaya]

238, over 200 why sweat the change. New Orleans should get on their knees and thank the good Lord this didn't come through the Rigolets.

[11th_VA]

I live 15 miles west of DC. At the top of a hilly ridge. No chance of flooding, not sure about the winds ...

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

Barring Divine intervention, it's just a matter of time before an Andrew does come up through the Rigolets, and it won't be pretty when it does.