Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Liberty Valance]

OK, i haven't read every post but have we talked about duct tape, cans of tuna and shotgun shells? I miss the coast but not the hurricanes. Prayers going out tonite for those in harms way. :o)

Best regards,
Liberty

[Gabz]

Marylanders, just pretend it is a snowstorm, you know what to buy. Lord how I miss the presnowstorm toilet paper/milk trip.

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!

Delawareans are even worse!!!!!!!!!!!

[U S Army EOD]

I guess what I meant in this case what comes after totally destroyed. Even at low tides a 30 ft surge is going to get everything.

[Gabz]

The only reason I am thinking of toilet paper is that we are actually down to 2 rolls and it was on my list for the monthly shopping tomorrow anyway!!!

I will admit I did pull out the mortgage and homeowners papers today while hubby was at work - just to double check some of the BS legalese.

[Heatseeker]

Good that you're on high ground (relatively speaking) but I really doubt they would cencel the race - Dover craves the money so much they'd have it smack in the middle of the storm. :(

[Atchafalaya]

Heat, heat defines intensity.

[Gabz]

That's scary.

[pgkdan]

That's scary.

Got my attention!

[U S Army EOD]

And the Gulf Stream consentrates right off North Carolina.

[kayak]

You have a valid point but .....

A 35-foot surge (for this purpose, that's assuming a 5-foot-higher-than-normal tide) would pack a considerably greater punch than a 30-foot wall of water would .... buildings that might withstand the 30-foot surge could fall under the force of an even greater surge. And the higher the surge, the farther inland it would reach.

True that the surge is the major problem but a high tide will compound the danger and damage.

And thank you for your service to our country .... :-)

[Gabz]

NOTE: Pets and livestock ARE NOT allowed at Red Cross evacuation shelters.

I responded to a classified ad for a position at the local Chapter of the Red Cross. The closing date for the application was last Friday.

Creepy.

[Atchafalaya]

Yeah, Andrew kicked our ass here is La. I'm glad we missed this thing, but sorry for whoever winds up with this bomb.

[Syncro]

Batten down the Balloons!!

[Stand_Up]

I have Three computers in the house and Two laptops, plus my wife and Three children. I figure I gota keep the load light as we'll all travel in one van and I'm sure it will be full. Besides its the data not the hardware thats important.

[Gabz]

Fenwick is not quite as bad as some of the others. There are still lovely stretches of it that are for soaking up beauty.

The massive development of the beaches around it, particularly north of it could very well endanger it's existance on the shore side of Route 1 (and Route 1 itself)

[U S Army EOD]

Low tide or high tide they are still in deep doo doo or just 30 feet of water can cause problems. I worry about any water above my nose.

[Coleus]

bttt

[Dan from Michigan]

I just hope this thing goes straight north away from the US, and then NE out to sea once it's past Bermuda.

[Gabz]

Wouldnt it be more easy to just throw the CPU in the trunk when you leave?

That's one idea!!!

I'm not planning on going anywhere unless they tell me it is absolutely positively necessary. Until that time - I'll just disconnect the entire thing and place it on top of my desk.

[U S Army EOD]

Amen