Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
As an example, here's the 3-month page for Ocean City, MD: http://www.dolphinkey.com/tidetables/data_text.php?tti=2866
Note that the high tides for Sept. 18 at that location are 1:04 am and 1:39 pm. This information is critical when considering storm surge. Those of you in the 'target area' may want to note these times for the station closest to you in case you are deciding whether to bail out or stay behind when the time comes to make that decision.
Jeez, Louise, just get out now and come back later. Life is too short. You can't predict a hurricane.
Stay safe.
NOAA has the center of circulation approaching OC MD, at 2 pm.
You wanna talk about flooding....
I agree with you, but some people are stubborn, and not without reason. At least one person was concerned that if they left, they wouldn't be allowed back for days, during which time rain could damage the place or looting could occur.
When I look at some of these bays on the map, and consider a wall of water pushed ahead of a Cat 3 or Cat 4 hurricane, I can't figure where else the water would go other than up onto the land. Sounds like a bottleneck to me. Anybody out there know if any studies have been done about potential damage if a Cat 3/Cat 4 hurricane went straight into the Chesapeake Bay?
Internal combustion engines apparently produce a large amount of CO in a hurry.
Particularly when cold, the catalytic converter hasn't heated up and its not doing anything. With a brand new car, in tune, you probably could run it when hot in a closed garage and not get poisoned (I wouldn't on general habit and principle).
Small internal combustion engines, in general, DO NOT have catalytic converters and emit far more CO for its one or two cylinders than 4+ cylinder automobiles...
I don't know if SheLion has some new type with a converter, but even if it did have one, before I utilized it I'd dry run it in the open with a CO meter held right in front of the exhaust and always have the meter handy.
Yup. I say if you're gonna have to pay to go somewhere, shoot, zip everything up and go to Vegas for a few days.
I expect that is exactly what they will do. The problem is that the fans have already begun their descent upon Dover.
On Friday, Saturday and Sunday of race weekend there are an additional 100,000 - 150,000 vehicles on the roads in a state that is only 100 miles long and 35 miles wide. That number doesn't include the 10,000 or so RV fans that started arriving last Friday for a week of partying and camping. Nor does that number include all the vehicles of the 800,000 residents, the tourists, shoppers and now the evacuees that will be coming from the the coastal areas of Maryland and Virginia.
If NASCAR doesn't can those races by Tuesday (Wednesday at the latest) and Izzy hits even as far south as Hatteras, NC on Thursday - there will be major catastrophe on the entire DelMarva Penninsula. If she tracks and hits Virginia Beach and then slides up the Chesapeake Bay - there is no telling how bad things could be.
In a situation like this storm, there are only 2 ways to get off the peninsula (which is just under 200 miles long) - Go west across the Chesapeake Bay to Baltimore/Washington or got north to NJ or PA. There is no going south.
And the Bay Bridge will close relatively early as the winds pick up.
To my knowledge it has never actually happened. Don't know about studies, but common sense says it would be a mess, no? I still remember Floyd in '99. It was a mere tropical storm by the time it got here (I live 20 minutes south of Baltimore, a few miles from the bay) but still brought considerable rain and flooding. Schools closed for a bit as I recall. A Category 5 right up the Chesapeake. Fun stuff.
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