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Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States
National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: hurricaneisabel
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To: oceanview
I think it has sped up some...going 13 mph now, faster than before.
521 posted on 09/14/2003 4:38:35 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Men stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up as if nothing had happened." Churchill)
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To: SheLion
I just bought a portable generator

We rolled ours out today (outside the garage) and ran it for a bit, to make sure it's working. It runs on gas, so like someone else said, it must be vented outside (outside the garage even), so the fumes don't build up in the house.

522 posted on 09/14/2003 4:38:48 PM PDT by SunnyUsa (USA-Home of the FREE because of the BRAVE !)
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To: rwfromkansas
I thought I read that if the eye contracts it will strengthen. Am I wrong about that?
523 posted on 09/14/2003 4:39:02 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Stefan Stackhouse
that's what that latest model shows, that divergent line through the carolinas is the model that weights more heavily the comment you just noted.

next update is 11PM eastern I think, let's see what that one shows. eventually, some kind of trend is going to develop here.
524 posted on 09/14/2003 4:39:14 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: SunnyUsa
it must be vented outside (outside the garage even), so the fumes don't build up in the house.

Don't even THINK about running that thing without a CO detector in your house. Please.

525 posted on 09/14/2003 4:39:59 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: SheLion
I lost my only child to carbon monoxide poisoning from a generator during a power outage; it was properly vented.

Go back and get a CO detector.
526 posted on 09/14/2003 4:41:17 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: rwfromkansas
if it speeds up, and the comment highlighted in #514 holds up, the more likely it is to make landfall south of the consensus which now takes it up the chesapeake as seen in many of the graphics here. so that would mean NC.
527 posted on 09/14/2003 4:42:05 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: NautiNurse
Keep reading. Do not use indoors.

I'll add to that that if you use it in the garage, you must have the garage door open, and any doors to the house closed. Also, be aware that if you run an extension cord through an open window or door, close it as tightly as possible without pinching the cord and seal off the air leaks near the generator as best as you can.

There's going to be a time period during the storm where you just won't be able to run the generator. It is for use after the worst of the weather is passed.

burns fossil fuel. Byproduct of burning fossil fuel is carbon monoxide. It would be like parking your running car inside your home.

Exactly - its pretty much the same as a small car engine.

Pay attention to electrical safety with the generator as well. Don't hook it up directly to the fuse box unless you use an approved, properly installed selector switch that disconnects the house from the grid when you connect the generator. Otherwise, you can electrocute the lineman down the street that is trying to rebuild the circuit to your house(it has happened more than once). Also, if you are using an extension cord to get power into the house, be sure that it is in good shape, weatherproof, and is rated for the amount of appliance load you are serving. Finally, make sure that you don't overload the generator. Add up those watts carefully!

528 posted on 09/14/2003 4:42:57 PM PDT by meyer
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To: rwfromkansas
The faster it moves, the more southern it will hit.
529 posted on 09/14/2003 4:43:01 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin
whoa, this post just floored me. good lord...
530 posted on 09/14/2003 4:43:13 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Centurion2000
Everything has the hand of God on it, my friend. Even bad things. He is the Sovereign.
531 posted on 09/14/2003 4:43:50 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Men stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up as if nothing had happened." Churchill)
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To: oceanview
Sorry; I have VERY strong feelings about that; if you use ANY kind of gas, get a CO detector. And I mean gas logs, too.
532 posted on 09/14/2003 4:44:28 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Amelia
When everyone and his brother is preparing and hitting the road at the same time, the stores are crowded, they run out of everything you need, and you've never seen the like of the traffic jam.

You've got that right...............

533 posted on 09/14/2003 4:44:33 PM PDT by Gabz (anti-smokers - personification of everything wrong in this country.)
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To: SheLion
I just bought a portable generator.

Don't use it indoors. It would be like running your car in a closed garage.

534 posted on 09/14/2003 4:45:30 PM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: rwfromkansas; Amelia
If it does hit the U.S., there will be oodles and gobs of time to prepare and hit the road since everyone is watching this one.

That is the good thing about hurricanes. You can prepare.


Have lots of 'canes up in Kansas, do they? LOL
535 posted on 09/14/2003 4:46:30 PM PDT by deport
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To: Howlin
I lost my only child to carbon monoxide poisoning from a generator during a power outage; it was properly vented.

I'm very sorry to hear that.

Go back and get a CO detector.

Good advice.

536 posted on 09/14/2003 4:48:17 PM PDT by meyer
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To: AnAmericanMother
I had the majority of the furniture and artifacts from one of my wife's relative's estate in my basement the year Opal came through. My basement leaks but has an electric sump that keeps it dry. The power went off in the middle of the night and I went downstairs and worked for two hours putting all that stuff on platforms, etc. During that time Opal stopped raining and never rained again. What a pain!
537 posted on 09/14/2003 4:48:20 PM PDT by groanup (Whom the market gods humble they first make proud.)
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To: meyer
It is for use after the worst of the weather is passed.

Excellent point--which leads to another---

It is not wise to burn hurricane oil lamps or candles during exceedingly high winds. If debris breaches the structure of your building, a fire would be virtually impossible to control.

538 posted on 09/14/2003 4:48:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Howlin
Sorry; I have VERY strong feelings about that; if you use ANY kind of gas, get a CO detector. And I mean gas logs, too.

I have gas logs - and a CO detector across the room from the fireplace.

In my old house, I had a CO detector in the basement not too far from a ventless gas heater. Although there was very little CO reading on the detector when I used the heater, I found that a car can raise CO in a hurry. I had an attached garage under the house, next to the basement. One winter day, I was going to head for the store. I opened the garage door, started the car, and realized that I had forgotten my wallet. So, I opened the door back into the basement and ran upstairs to get the wallet. In the 30-45 seconds that I had that door open (and the garage door was also open wide), the detector reading rose high enough to alarm. Internal combustion engines apparently produce a large amount of CO in a hurry.

539 posted on 09/14/2003 4:52:55 PM PDT by meyer
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To: Neets; kayak; wimpycat; RightOnline; TC Rider; Phantom Lord
No problems. As the guy said tonight on MSNBC, North Carolinians are PROFESSIONAL hurricane survivors!
540 posted on 09/14/2003 4:53:15 PM PDT by Howlin
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