Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[meyer]

I know some people in Memphis. From what they told me, your storm and it's damage were very much like what a hurricane does inland .... and at least we have the advantage of advance notice for hurricanes so we can make preparations.

It took a couple of weeks for Memphis Light, Gas, & Water to get all their customers back, and that was with help from a couple of other utilities. I had the opportunity to drive through the area a week after the storm and found myself a little bit happy that I didn't live there. I hadn't seen trees uprooted in such quantity since the 4th of July, 1969 in Cleveland, Ohio (where I grew up).

[AnAmericanMother]

I really don't know. Negotiations were conducted through our real estate agents, so that I didn't blurt out something horrible. Somehow I have the impression that he was from somewhere else.

Not that that makes any difference. Plenty of local folks have perpetrated Interior Decoration Horrors. What I hate most is the sort of house that just screams "Interior Design Consultant." I'll never forget going to a very wealthy person's house (3rd generation native Atlantan) and admiring a lovely collection of rare shells, carefully arranged and labelled under the glass of an occasional table. The wife actually said, "Oh, I don't know anything about those. The decorator did it." I had to bite my tongue. #$)(%(%^!!

We're not House Beautiful by any means. I just like plain white walls with a few drops of taupe in the bucket, simple handcrafted furniture whether modern or antique, old Persian rugs on the floor and a few good pieces of art on the walls. Less is more.

[U S Army EOD]

Look up Hurricane Camille on the net. That will show you what a CAT 5 did do. I didn't see the damage after it happened but lived in the area years later. What I saw THIRTY YEARS after the storm made an impression on me.

[Orion78]

http://www.loep.state.la.us/factsheets/FactsAboutHurricaneEye.htm

http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020430hurricanetemp.html

[4Freedom]

You can find pictures of what 145 mph Fabian did to the cement homes on the relatively wealthy island of Bermuda, that considers itself pretty well prepared for storms like this, HERE.

Note the guy rummaging through what's left of his belongings on the second floor of his cement house that had it's entire front wall ripped down.

[kayak]

From a story about the effects of Hugo on Charlotte .....

It's the worst inland damage in years from a hurricane," says Ken Middleton, News Director of WCNC-TV in Charlotte. Ninety percent of the city was without power and he says all the stations were off the air at one time or another.

"The story in Charlotte has been overshadowed by what happened in Charleston, "adds Dick Moore, News Director of WSOC-TV.

There was over one-half billion to one billion dollars damage in Charlotte. "We're almost 200 miles inland, but winds reached 75 to 90 mph," he says.

The Killer Storm: Covering Hurricane Hugo

I had a friend whose parents lived in Charleston when Hugo hit. She said her parents spent the night clinging to each other, convinced that they would not survive the storm's fury. It was over a week before they could even get out of their driveway for the downed trees ..... and then they couldn't go anywhere because the streets were still blocked.

[oceanview]

some nice abrovitae, some rhodendron, some dwarf fruit trees, would clean that right up....

[who knows what evil?]

Thank you. My life is completely in His hands...who could ask for more?

[radiohead]

posters in DC to NJ:

I have a sister in atlantic city. she is by herself there. do you think she ought to come down to my parents in DC for awhile? I don't know how hard the storm might hit the AC area, but I can imagine power being out, etc. She's on disability and might be overwhelmed by an emergency situation.

I spoke to my mother this am and she didn't say anything about the storm, so I don't know if it's getting big play in the DC area. Being on the left coast, until I started reading these posts, I didn't realize people are as concerned as they are, so I didn't mention it either.

Any thoughts?

[Orion78]

"In general, when the eye is shrinking in size, the hurricane is intensifying."

Click Here

[oceanview]

what floor does she live on? does she live in an apartment building?

[Orion78]

Hurricane Gordon, 1994

[kayak]

From another thread, someone in the DC area has posted this ......

..... The Washington DC Emergency Preparedness folks have put out a call for sandbags.

That's a tough call about your sister. I would be reluctant to advise you about that. She could be in greater danger in DC, depending on the exact path the storm takes ..... but it sounds like she perhaps should not be alone during this hurricane. There are so many variables to consider.

I will pray that your family is led to make the right decision.

[PJ-Comix]

Just curious. What sort of booze are you folks up north going to stock up on? And you will have to do a lot of drinking. Why? Because with your power likely to be out for a day or two you will get bored to death sober. You won't be able to use your 'puters or watch TV or even read much because of low light levels so the only think left to do is DRINK. Beer wouldn't be a good idea since you won't have refrigeration. If it were me, I would stock up on RUM. Part of the reason is because hurricanes originate in the tropics, the same as rum so I would definitely be in a rum mood.

[Ryzaroo]

Not sure if this helps your decision but my mother-in-law lives in Cape May just a few blocks from the oceanfront and we have strongly advised her to keep an eye out and move farther inland.

We're in Annapolis and depending on the track she probably wouldn't be much better here so we decided against telling her to drive here.


Good luck on your decision.

[NautiNurse]

As of this post, there are no local hurricane statements for D.C., Baltimore, or Annapolis. If local storm statements are issued, that should be cause for more concern.

[Windcatcher]

Way ahead of you. We've got at least seven kinds of single malt scotch.

MacAllan 18-year-old Scotch (1981) is some terrific stuff.

[meyer]

Does that start to give you a mental picture?

Yes - tornado comes to mind.

[meowmeow]

On the local DC news tonight, it got very little attention – I thought – considering 1) it looks like it is headed straight at us, and 2) there’s nothing DC news anchors love more than impending doom and panic. Maybe they are saving it for tomorrow. I don’t know what to tell you – I am checking our supplies tonight and doing some shopping tomorrow morning. It doesn’t look safe here either.

[NautiNurse]

Tee Hee--three days after Fran knocked us out, I flew down to New Orleans for a conference...and drank lots of hurricanes