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Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States
National Hurricane Center ^
| 9/14/03
| NHC
Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: hurricaneisabel
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To: SheLion
Do that and you and the lizard will die.
641
posted on
09/14/2003 5:51:11 PM PDT
by
U S Army EOD
(Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
To: Vinnie
Thanks! I know NOTHING about lakes.
642
posted on
09/14/2003 5:51:12 PM PDT
by
Howlin
To: U S Army EOD
Calculate 48 times 10 mph and you have still have a tropical storm 480 miles inland.On the other hand, once winds drop below 50 mph or so, most wind damage isn't a factor any more. The rain, however, will still exist. 24 hours ought to take away most of the wind damage. Of course, one must know the speed of the storm to determine how far inland this will go.
643
posted on
09/14/2003 5:52:10 PM PDT
by
meyer
To: wimpycat
Glad you were able to find those boots. Can't beat the price, and they are very, very handy for a lot of things around here.
To: SunnyUsa
make sure and run extention chords to lights and appliances only. Don't hook it to the house. If you do then power will flow back through the lines and get the line people trying to restore power.
645
posted on
09/14/2003 5:53:07 PM PDT
by
U S Army EOD
(Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
To: PleaseNoMore
This can really happen??
You bet. Pay attention in the following days to the forward motion speed as Isabel is picked up by the jet stream, as it is now forecasted to. It will accelerate.
To: Howlin
I heard that that "chamber" they have in Charlotte that they use for the "bends" ran full time with people who were overcome with the fumes. Yes, I had forgotten about that. CO 'sticks' to your hemoglobin and takes the place of oxygen.
647
posted on
09/14/2003 5:54:21 PM PDT
by
Vinnie
To: weatherFrEaK
I know that we have a cold front coming to the EC so how strong will that front have to be to steer this thing away? Stronger than what it is? The last I heard it was forecast to reach us around Thursday or Friday.
To: weatherFrEaK
Oh yes---never, ever rely on a time schedule for a tropical storm to arrive. A couple of years ago, everyone around here was expecting to do their last minute grocery stop before a tropical storm during afternoon rush hour. The storm arrived 14 hours early. Caught everyone in the neighborhood unprepared--except me.
To: wimpycat
WalMart over near you? Are they 24/7?
650
posted on
09/14/2003 5:57:02 PM PDT
by
Howlin
To: U S Army EOD; SheLion
I wonder if what SheLion has purchased is one of those big storage batteries you plug into the wall ahead of time, rather than a generator?
But, SheLion, if you put any sort of liquid fuel into this thing, do NOT run it indoors! It will kill you in a very short time. You can't even run it for "just a little while".
651
posted on
09/14/2003 5:58:22 PM PDT
by
AnAmericanMother
(. . . there is nothing new under the sun.)
To: meyer
Some forecasters are speculating by looking at some of the models that tropical moisture from Izzy make get entrained in a cutoff area of low pressure over the eastern US late in the week. Imagine the consequences of that cutoff low sitting and spinning for days over the same area of the CONUS. Severe flood threat IF that scenario unfolds.
To: SC Swamp Fox
I think the NHC is worried that the folks north of the Carolinas will shrug this off as a big, fuzzy nor'easter. They are using very plain language.I suspect that folks that aren't used to hurricanes (myself included) don't really have a good mental picture of the amount of damage that these things can cause. I was in Memphis about a week after a "freak" storm of 100 MPH straight-line winds went through the area - the number of large trees uprooted and buildings damaged was incredible. And that was only 100 MPH - look at 140 with higher gusts and you've got homes and buildings that will blow down. Not just lose a shingle or some siding - blow down to the ground. 150+ MPH rivals some small-medium tornado winds.
653
posted on
09/14/2003 5:59:26 PM PDT
by
meyer
To: oceanview
This one just might be different.
654
posted on
09/14/2003 6:00:49 PM PDT
by
U S Army EOD
(Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
To: AnAmericanMother
"We've never had to use it in the pouring rain..."
I hope you never do. It sounds like it is outside. Why the CO detector?
655
posted on
09/14/2003 6:00:53 PM PDT
by
groanup
(Whom the market gods humble they first make proud.)
To: I_love_weather
656
posted on
09/14/2003 6:02:25 PM PDT
by
blam
To: PleaseNoMore
I know that we have a cold front coming to the EC so how strong will that front have to be to steer this thing away?
Don't think it will steer it away from all areas of the EC. Position of that front will dictate where Isabel will most likely head towards, as it will tend to ride up along and east of the boundary.
To: groanup
Certain types of weather can hold the CO fumes close to the ground and force them into the house. That's what happened to Howlin's son.
658
posted on
09/14/2003 6:03:37 PM PDT
by
Amelia
(Very thankful for friends and family.)
To: meyer
659
posted on
09/14/2003 6:05:48 PM PDT
by
Howlin
To: All
To get mentally prepared for this one, rent the movie, "Deep Impact". I think you will get a very clear picture of what a last minute evacuation will look like if this thing is as bad as they say it could be and you wait to the last minute to run.
660
posted on
09/14/2003 6:07:04 PM PDT
by
U S Army EOD
(Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
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