Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[AnAmericanMother]

We've got a sump pump in part of our crawlspace (thanks to the idiot who owned the house before us - he added on and overexcavated the crawlspace). We lost power a couple of weeks ago (lightning strike somewhere down the line) and the little battery powered water alarm went off in about an hour. So it's out to the garage and fire up the generator -- one big SLURP and all the water's gone.

We put our generator on the back deck, well away from the doors, and chain it to a bolt in the deck so it doesn't grow legs and walk off. There is an overhang, but it's 2 stories up, and there is a CO detector right inside the door. It has never gone off while the generator is running.

We've never had to use it in the pouring rain (it really is for "After the Ball Is Over"), but I'm sure we could rig some sort of lean-to arrangement with some 2 x 4s and a sheet of plywood.

[weatherFrEaK]

You folks on the EC should take into consideration that Isabel COULD accelerate N or NNW to between 40-60mph if it is caught up in a strong enough trough, not the 10-12mph it is cruising at now. A quick change in forward motion will catch many offguard.

[Howlin]

Yes, they are. And not out to sea........LOL.

[SC Swamp Fox]

Are you reading these posts from the NHC that are using words like "catastrophic?" Yikes.

I think the NHC is worried that the folks north of the Carolinas will shrug this off as a big, fuzzy nor'easter. They are using very plain language.

Look at those satellite photos and imagine the storm surge, winds and rain that thing is going to produce. Think about the population between VA Beach and Baltimore.

[U S Army EOD]

Yep each report puts it further south. I think I am going to load up some of my equipment on my truck and trailer and notify the Red Cross in Augusta GA I am ready to roll, there are a lot of people going to need help.

[Howlin]

You better get ready, that's for sure; but come back at 11 PM.....it will be different then.........LOL.

[oceanview]

it does appear that way, but you have to factor in what current observations are projected into the future for that particular model. if that observation does not pan out, that model becomes instantly flawed. still, its good to see them all.

let's see what happens at 11PM.

[AnAmericanMother]

Please be blunt. In fact, thank you for the courage to hang out there with personal facts to make sure people understand.

Too many people don't know about the dangers of carbon monoxide. Only reason I know is that I'm a former arson investigator.

We have THREE CO detectors, all with battery backup.

[Howlin]

Now where were those boots you saw today??

[wimpycat]

My dad's people in Carteret County (NC) have seen Nor'easters that were worse than some hurricanes...but Floyd threw them for a loop.

[SC Swamp Fox]

The orange one is the one that scares me the most.

Yeah, me too. They put the northward turn on that one right over my house.

[NautiNurse]

Local Weather Statements:

Charleston, SC

Wilmington, NC

Norfolk, VA

Wilmington, DE

[wimpycat]

I got them at Wal-Mart. They were in the back of the shoe section with the work boots and dairy boots.

[U S Army EOD]

It has exhaust. Also if you hook up to your house make sure and disconnect all lines from the main power since your generator will run down the lines and shock the line crews trying to make repairs. They will think the power is off but yours will get them.

[oceanview]

but a tropical storm isn't a big deal really. we've had nor-easters, the "perfect storm" that the movie was based on, those 93 superstorms that produced the blizzard. we rode all of those out just 2 blocks from the atlantic. the "perfect storm" pushed the ocean onto our street.

[Vinnie]

30 mph tops. The only concern would be flooding. If they are not in a flood prone area, they will be fine.

[PleaseNoMore]

This can really happen??

[Howlin]

The guy from NHC said that almost exactly on MSNBC tonight. He even said that we folks in the Carolinas were "professional hurricane preparers." :-)

[meyer]

You folks on the EC should take into consideration that Isabel COULD accelerate N or NNW to between 40-60mph if it is caught up in a strong enough trough, not the 10-12mph it is cruising at now. A quick change in forward motion will catch many offguard.

From what I understand, it probably will accelerate at least modestly when it gets a little push from the gulf breeze.

[Amelia]

You must not have been too close to the beach or Daytona.

Floyd didn't do too much here in GA. About like a northeaster, but didn't last as long.