Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Howlin]

Did you see all the deaths here during the ice storm from people burning charcoal in the fireplace or using a grill inside????? I nearly went crazy!!

I heard that that "chamber" they have in Charlotte that they use for the "bends" ran full time with people who were overcome with the fumes.

[Howlin]

I've got family in Raleigh. Anyone have an idea of what they can expect?

Just read my posts!!!

[Amelia]

We left mid-afternoon. Floyd wasn't even off the coast until the next morning. Howlin thought we should have left at least 8 hours before.

As it turned out, we could have stayed in our little mobile home and been just fine, but who knew?

[NautiNurse]

I would not worry too much about folks in Rochester. They are very used to lake effect winter blizzards. They should take the weather in stride.

[SC Swamp Fox]

Yeah except that it will be a VERY, VERY, severe thunderstrom that will go on for a day and a half.

....and tornados. They accounted for most of the damage in this area.

[meyer]

You're damned if you do and damned if you don't. Leave early and the storm misses you. Leave late and you can't leave. Don't leave and make out a will or open a bottle of whisky.

Awwww Heck - just load up the whisky and head about 250 miles inland, then open it and watch from a distance. :)

[Howlin]

Are you reading these posts from the NHC that are using words like "catastrophic?" Yikes.

[U S Army EOD]

Calculate 48 times 10 mph and you have still have a tropical storm 480 miles inland.

[groanup]

"As it turned out, we could have stayed in our little mobile home and been just fine, but who knew?"

You must not have been too close to the beach or Daytona. My friends house was trashed and judging by the damage it would have been dangerous in a mobile home. Glad you came through ok. The pier at Daytona was cut in half.

[PleaseNoMore]

"Catastrophic", "major loss of life" and phrases like this make me wish I had some Valium.

[Howlin]

Get a look at this:

UPDATED: 09.14.03 20:36 EDT

[Howlin]

Lookie.

[groanup]

"Awwww Heck - just load up the whisky and head about 250 miles inland, then open it and watch from a distance. :)"

Take you up on that one.

[wimpycat]

Yuck! If Isabel follows the orange, pink or green lines, we're screwed.

[groanup]

The tracks are moving further south as time goes on.

[Neets]

Looks like they are predicting landfall in the VA Beach/Norfolk region now eh??

I have 3 sisters and a niece and nephew down that way. My nephews wife is due any day now. UGHHH.

[Amelia]

Yes, Amelia. She was the last one out, I'm sure.

I was not. There were people who stayed.

The next day, when The Weather Channel was feeling a bit foolish broadcasting the big waves and clouds from Tybee Island, we called the people who stayed, found out there wasn't any problem in our area, and went on back home.

[PleaseNoMore]

The orange one is the one that scares me the most.

[Ga.Lady]

Hurricane Hugo in Charleston was also on Sept 21

[Hannity4prez]

Its not fun to see your town on this radar map. Just moved to Virginia Beach last year. Looks like I need to start getting ready for a road trip!