Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[U S Army EOD]

Do that and you and the lizard will die.

[Howlin]

Thanks! I know NOTHING about lakes.

[meyer]

Calculate 48 times 10 mph and you have still have a tropical storm 480 miles inland.

On the other hand, once winds drop below 50 mph or so, most wind damage isn't a factor any more. The rain, however, will still exist. 24 hours ought to take away most of the wind damage. Of course, one must know the speed of the storm to determine how far inland this will go.

[NautiNurse]

Glad you were able to find those boots. Can't beat the price, and they are very, very handy for a lot of things around here.

[U S Army EOD]

make sure and run extention chords to lights and appliances only. Don't hook it to the house. If you do then power will flow back through the lines and get the line people trying to restore power.

[weatherFrEaK]

This can really happen??
You bet. Pay attention in the following days to the forward motion speed as Isabel is picked up by the jet stream, as it is now forecasted to. It will accelerate.

[Vinnie]

I heard that that "chamber" they have in Charlotte that they use for the "bends" ran full time with people who were overcome with the fumes.

Yes, I had forgotten about that. CO 'sticks' to your hemoglobin and takes the place of oxygen.

[PleaseNoMore]

I know that we have a cold front coming to the EC so how strong will that front have to be to steer this thing away? Stronger than what it is? The last I heard it was forecast to reach us around Thursday or Friday.

[NautiNurse]

Oh yes---never, ever rely on a time schedule for a tropical storm to arrive. A couple of years ago, everyone around here was expecting to do their last minute grocery stop before a tropical storm during afternoon rush hour. The storm arrived 14 hours early. Caught everyone in the neighborhood unprepared--except me.

[Howlin]

WalMart over near you? Are they 24/7?

[AnAmericanMother]

I wonder if what SheLion has purchased is one of those big storage batteries you plug into the wall ahead of time, rather than a generator?

But, SheLion, if you put any sort of liquid fuel into this thing, do NOT run it indoors! It will kill you in a very short time. You can't even run it for "just a little while".

[weatherFrEaK]

Some forecasters are speculating by looking at some of the models that tropical moisture from Izzy make get entrained in a cutoff area of low pressure over the eastern US late in the week. Imagine the consequences of that cutoff low sitting and spinning for days over the same area of the CONUS. Severe flood threat IF that scenario unfolds.

[meyer]

I think the NHC is worried that the folks north of the Carolinas will shrug this off as a big, fuzzy nor'easter. They are using very plain language.

I suspect that folks that aren't used to hurricanes (myself included) don't really have a good mental picture of the amount of damage that these things can cause. I was in Memphis about a week after a "freak" storm of 100 MPH straight-line winds went through the area - the number of large trees uprooted and buildings damaged was incredible. And that was only 100 MPH - look at 140 with higher gusts and you've got homes and buildings that will blow down. Not just lose a shingle or some siding - blow down to the ground. 150+ MPH rivals some small-medium tornado winds.

[U S Army EOD]

This one just might be different.

[groanup]

"We've never had to use it in the pouring rain..."

I hope you never do. It sounds like it is outside. Why the CO detector?

[blam]

Plywood Prices Approach All-Time High

Get it while you can. There appear to be spot shortages too.

[weatherFrEaK]

I know that we have a cold front coming to the EC so how strong will that front have to be to steer this thing away?

Don't think it will steer it away from all areas of the EC. Position of that front will dictate where Isabel will most likely head towards, as it will tend to ride up along and east of the boundary.

[Amelia]

Certain types of weather can hold the CO fumes close to the ground and force them into the house. That's what happened to Howlin's son.

[Howlin]

Take a look at these pictures:

http://www.ibiblio.org/maggot/fran/

They are in Chapel Hill, NC, the morning after Fran blew through.

This is what it looks like inland.

[U S Army EOD]

To get mentally prepared for this one, rent the movie, "Deep Impact". I think you will get a very clear picture of what a last minute evacuation will look like if this thing is as bad as they say it could be and you wait to the last minute to run.