Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[PleaseNoMore]

Sorry about that triplicate post.

[Howlin]

"When we evacuated for Floyd we went backroads..." Smart move.

Yeah, but ask her how long she waited before she left. ;-)

[NautiNurse]

Graph showing approximate wind speed decay following hurricane landfall. Unfortunately, top wind for major hurricane is only 120 mph.

[Howlin]

blam, you know how much that means to me?

[oceanview]

follow some of the good advice here about having some basic disaster supplies: canned food, water, flashlights with batteries, radio, can opener, etc. and just sit tight, stay informed, and see what happens.

[Howlin]

I'm in North Raleigh, so I'm right there with you!

[kayak]

No apologies needed, Howlin, after what you went through when you lost Drew.

And we will never know how many lives you have saved because you have persisted in being blunt, to the point, and persistent on the subject ever since.

(((((Howlin)))))

[groanup]

"Yeah, but ask her how long she waited before she left. ;-)"

Well Amelia? Did you wait for a breeze or a gale?

[groanup]

"Yeah, but ask her how long she waited before she left. ;-)"

Well Amelia? Did you wait for a breeze or a gale?

[PleaseNoMore]

Well, don't forget that cell #. That way IF it comes my way first I can call ya and tell ya what is heading your way!

On a side note, I will be buying CO detectors in the AM. TY for caring enough to warn others.

[meyer]

And I'd like to apologize for being so BLUNT in my above post; if I offended anyone, I am sorry. But, as I said, it hits home with me.

No need to apologize - Rather than offended, I feel very bad about your loss.

Your warnings about CO carry a considerable amount of weight - much more so than any warning in an owners' manual might carry.

[Howlin]

Yes, Amelia. She was the last one out, I'm sure.

[blam]

"blam, you know how much that means to me?"

Yes, I believe so.

[PleaseNoMore]

We are ohysically prepared but there is NO way to get mentally prepared. No way at all. Not for me. I have stormaphobia. I think I would rather be sedated this time around than have to hear those winds again.

[MattAMiller]

I've got family in Raleigh. Anyone have an idea of what they can expect?

[Amelia]

My uncles just south of Florence were without power for a week. I saw mobile homes turned upside down in that area, and houses with trees all on top of them....i.e., it was the equivalent of a VERY VERY severe thunderstorm, I'd say.

[Vinnie]

Mine is a plugin type but I told my wife we need one for ice storm duty when we might have something burninig in the house during a power outage.

Every hurricane in Fla there were deaths caused from BBq grills being used for cooking in the house.

[PleaseNoMore]

Well, the way everyone is talking, something of biblical destruction.

Seriously, I am just south of Raleigh and I will certainly be praying that thing doesn't impact us here, or anywhere for that matter.

[Howlin]

I have a question to throw out to you all:

I have a friend who lives in Rochester, NY. It looks like the some of the models predict that Isabel will make a beeline for or near Rochester on Friday.

What advice should I give them about what THEY should do? Should they evacuate or stay should Isabel keep on its track?

Anybody have any guesses how strong she will be then? Tropical storm, Cat 1,2,3?

[drjoe]

, it was the equivalent of a VERY VERY severe thunderstorm,

Yeah except that it will be a VERY, VERY, severe thunderstrom that will go on for a day and a half.