Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[groanup]

"When we evacuated for Floyd we went backroads..."

Smart move.

[oceanview]

it really depends on where you live, I know that may not be a definitive answer, but I believe that is the truth. how close to the coast or a body of water, are you in an area that floods, lots of trees around? a cat 3, just taking into account the winds, should not blow your house down like Andrew did as a cat 5 in florida.

[Vinnie]

I remember that sad day Howlin.

It prompted me to get one.

[oceanview]

what scientific terms would you like more explanation for?

[PleaseNoMore]

As I have said, I went through Fran. IF it has to come through here I can handle another Fran or weaker. I don't want to but I can and will have to because I don't have enough air in me to huff and puff it away. But the way folks are talking, this will be something of biblical proportion and that I just ain't ready for. Not mentally because, as I have also said, I am a severe weather wuss. I cringe when it thunders.

[Howlin]

Yes, you do.

[blam]

" I have propane heat and I have a wood burning stove. Do I need a CO detector?"

Absolutely.

They're cheap, get two. Change the batteries every year on your birthday. (Good way to remember)

[Husker24]

Holey sh!t, a 52 foot wave! Imagine that monster coming at you.

[PleaseNoMore]

Bluntly, all of them, lol. I am meteorogically retarded. I should have paid attention in science class. But nooooo. I had the "how am I ever gonna be able to use this stuff in real life" mentality.

[Sub-Driver]

Well "...A GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN..." semms pretty pain to me!

[Howlin]

I remember, Peach. Something good comes out of everything.

[Howlin]

It did? I'm glad! Check the batteries! And think of Drew whenever you look at it.

[oceanview]

don't worry, as long as you know north/south/east/west, and the concept of speed and direction, most of it will make sense.

[Peach]

Yes, I've thought of your loss often and thought of the good you have managed to create by warning others of the very real dangers.

Hugs to you, my friend.

[PleaseNoMore]

I am 103 miles from the coast so I am not worried about getting washed away by a storm surge. Lower lying areas of this county are prone to flash flooding but not my immediate area. Not unless this baby drops 3 foot of rain or something that disasterous. My main concern is wind and more wind.

[PleaseNoMore]

I am 103 miles from the coast so I am not worried about getting washed away by a storm surge. Lower lying areas of this county are prone to flash flooding but not my immediate area. Not unless this baby drops 3 foot of rain or something that disasterous. My main concern is wind and more wind.

[PleaseNoMore]

I am 103 miles from the coast so I am not worried about getting washed away by a storm surge. Lower lying areas of this county are prone to flash flooding but not my immediate area. Not unless this baby drops 3 foot of rain or something that disasterous. My main concern is wind and more wind.

[Heatseeker]

Forgot about the NASCAR race - Rt 13 will be a parking lot. Anybody hoping to go north past Dover should detour across the state line and pick up Rt 301.

The storm surge is what would worry me, if I were closer to water (actually I'm very near the Choptank River but as you know Denton is on a low hill just east of it). If memory serves, there's noplace on the ESVA higher than 30 feet above msl.

[agrace]

My brother lives 2 blocks from the beach in OC (coincidentally), he and his wife work for Phillips Crab House. They are heading here probably. Here being NJ, 25 miles inland, not sure I want to be here at the end of the week, maybe we'll ALL head to my parents in Milton PA. :)

[blam]

"I remember that sad day Howlin."

I do too.

"It prompted me to get one.

It did me too.