Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Joe Hadenuf]

Did you just hear Max Mayfield just now on CNN....he just said there could be a major loss of life from this storm .......he was as serious as I have ever seen him.

This is exactly another reason why I feel very fortunate to live in California, even with our current political problems.

I've been through five or so earthquakes, and never a lick of damage. Knock on wood. However, I have seen the damages from annual hurricanes, tornados, floods, ice storms etc and I am more than happy that I don't have to deal with that. I had a friend that went through Hurricane Andrew in Florida in 1992, and they lost everything. And to make matter worse, his wifes folks lost everything too. They no longer live in Florida.

Good luck to all on the east coast....

[groanup]

Interesting site. Where I'm sitting it's raining to beat the band. First we've had in a couple of weeks. Eerie that it should happen now. Is it raining where you are?

[Howlin]

I see you have "hurricane fever" now......LOL.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"A generator will kill you - Carbon Monoxide Poisoning."

So will burning a charcoal or propane grill indoors. And believe or not, many poor souls have perished in this manner.

[kidd]

The Jeffersom Memorial is 25 feet above sea level

[SheLion]

I just bought a portable generator. I didn't read anything about carbon monoxide.
:(

[2nd amendment mama]

I agree. I've got my evacuation plans all in order.....;-(

[Neets]

Howlin, Kay and all you southners....

Thanks from this NY born and bread Yankee on all these hurricane tips.

i can't tell you how much it is appreciated.

If youse all need Nor'easter tips when the time comes, just ping me!!!

[rwfromkansas]

If it does hit the U.S., there will be oodles and gobs of time to prepare and hit the road since everyone is watching this one.

That is the good thing about hurricanes. You can prepare.

[AnAmericanMother]

We had a line of thunderstorms just pass through - in their usual direction, roughly W to E. Our really bad summer/fall weather usually boils up from the Gulf SW to NE, our bad winter weather blows in from the NW out of the Plains and does a do-si-do round the SW end of the Appalachians.

But all bets are off with hurricanes. In 95 Opal blew up almost due N from the Gulf, trending slightly E - went right up the Alabama border so we were on the right hand side of the storm. It wreaked havoc all over N GA - you still see on the Appalachian Trail whole stands of trees that were knocked down by Opal.

[NautiNurse]

I just bought a portable generator. I didn't read anything about carbon monoxide.

Keep reading. Do not use indoors.

burns fossil fuel. Byproduct of burning fossil fuel is carbon monoxide. It would be like parking your running car inside your home.

[Howlin]

That's closer to Jacksonville.

[rwfromkansas]

Look at that eye! It is a big eye, which does not allow for it to strengthen much...and may help it weaken some, but probably not a lot.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS.

This is not good news for the Carolinas

[Howlin]

The eye is 50 miles across. There are sustained hurricane force winds 85 miles on either side of the eye.

We're talking 225 miles.

[rwfromkansas]

computer models....they are guidance though, remember, not gospel. The NHC track (the dot around Virginia Beach) is what matters most since actual people develop that one.

[Howlin]

Check out WREL in Lexington's web site. It's very good.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

[SheLion]

Keep reading. Do not use indoors.

It's a small portable. Supposed to be used indoors. I have a green iguana that needs his lights. So, I figured if power goes out for any length of time, my green buddy won't get sick. Plus, it will give ME light as well.

This sucker better be ok to use in the house! I bought it from QVC.

[Amelia]

If it does hit the U.S., there will be oodles and gobs of time to prepare and hit the road since everyone is watching this one.

You've obviously never actually been through a hurricane or hurricane evacuation.

When everyone and his brother is preparing and hitting the road at the same time, the stores are crowded, they run out of everything you need, and you've never seen the like of the traffic jam.

[Howlin]

Yes, especially non-Americans.