Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[dixie sass]

I believe that they are advised to keep them in coolers. I think that's what they told my brother, the minister. He takes insulin.

[Keith in Iowa]

Of course, the DemonRats are going to blame this on Bush...

[Dog Gone]

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM WAVEWATCH MODEL OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS FOR BUOY 44009 SE OF CAPE MAY HAS HAD PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS VARIED FROM 36 TO 52(!) FEET WITH HURRICANE PASSAGE. HIGHEST OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHT EVER AT THIS BUOY HAS BEEN 25 FEET WITH THE DECEMBER 1992 STORM.

Ponder what that just said.

[abner]

Great idea, but highly unlikely I could convince VOC to do that!

[AnAmericanMother]

Actually, the little refrigerators work pretty well for keeping stuff cool but not extra-cold. They work via heat exchanger so the temperature is limited by the outside air temperature. . . the best they can do is 25-30 degrees cooler than the outside air IIRC (don't hold me to the number). So if it's hot outside (or in the car) they don't do that good a job. Good enough for keeping stuff refrigerator-door-cool (somewhere in the 50s) but not cold drink cold. Of course I'm a Southerner born and bred, and like my Co-Cola drifting around in a big galvanized cooler box full of frigid water with big chunks of ice floating in it.

But it's a whole lot better than nothing if you can't buy ice! For medicine and perishable items it would buy you some time.

[dixie sass]

Tell VOC that I thought he was the romantic kind and would do something like that for you, lol.

[Gabz]

Nothing will ever surprise me when it comes to major storms.

I have the utmost respect for what wrath and havoc can be wreaked by mother nature.

We have plywood for the windows, supplies all ready taken care of and hubby is going to tighten up a couple of spots on the metal roof of the barn. There is really nothing else to do except wait, be prepared, and pray.

[theriotcat]

Am wondering if the fleet will be leaving Norfolk and get out of harm's way. Anyone have an idea?

[dixie sass]

as long as he had his balloons!

[dixie sass]

Amen.

[Amelia]

But it's a whole lot better than nothing if you can't buy ice!

I remember people here hauling ice to Charleston after Hugo.

[Gabz]

That's how I know when a hurricane is actually going to hit nearby, I start feeling light-headed.

Not that there is anything funny about the possibilities of this storm. But that comment cracked me up.

I have been light-headed all day because of sinus pressure whacking out my equalibrium. I know it is because of allergies, but I still found the comment funny (I guess I'm also giddy!!)

[oceanview]

updated strike probabilities

[Rander7]

Our son and family lives in northern Delaware...not too far from Chesapeake Bay...I wonder if it'll affect them.

[aristeides]

With waves that size, how safe will ships be at sea?

[Dog]

Here is the latest fron the National Hurricane Center.

000 WTNT33 KNHC 142042 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2003

...DANGEROUS ISABEL REMAINS JUST BELOW CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ISABEL A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND JUST BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...24.1 N... 67.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[11th_VA]

Our son and family lives in northern Delaware...not too far from Chesapeake Bay...I wonder if it'll affect them.

If it follows the projeted path - without a doubt.

[aristeides]

The '38 hurricane did as much damage as it did to Fire Island and Long Island because it was high tide when it hit (and it was only a Category 3 when it hit.) When are the high tides on Thursday and Friday?

[dixie sass]

I remember that also. I remember the wonderful out pouring of support and help that we received from all over the country. We were able to return it - the horrible earthquake in San Francisco and Hurricane Andrew. Just to name two events.

[oceanview]

if the track is correct, that area of extreme south jersey/delaware will be in the eastern part of the eye. that buoy 44009 is here: