[Dog Gone]

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM WAVEWATCH MODEL OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS FOR BUOY 44009 SE OF CAPE MAY HAS HAD PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS VARIED FROM 36 TO 52(!) FEET WITH HURRICANE PASSAGE. HIGHEST OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHT EVER AT THIS BUOY HAS BEEN 25 FEET WITH THE DECEMBER 1992 STORM.

Ponder what that just said.

[aristeides]

With waves that size, how safe will ships be at sea?

[Dog]

Here is the latest fron the National Hurricane Center.

000 WTNT33 KNHC 142042 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2003

...DANGEROUS ISABEL REMAINS JUST BELOW CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ISABEL A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND JUST BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...24.1 N... 67.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[oceanview]

if the track is correct, that area of extreme south jersey/delaware will be in the eastern part of the eye. that buoy 44009 is here: