Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
| MM | DD | HH EDT |
WDIR | WSPD kts |
GST kts |
WVHT ft |
DPD sec |
APD sec |
MWD | PRES in |
PTDY in |
ATMP °F |
WTMP °F |
DEWP °F |
SAL | VIS mi |
TIDE ft |
|
| 09 | 14 | 12 pm | ESE | 13.6 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 13 | 7.4 | - | 30.14 | +0.00 | 80.4 | 81.5 | 73.6 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 11 am | ESE | 13.6 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 14 | 7.3 | - | 30.14 | +0.00 | 80.4 | 81.3 | 73.6 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 10 am | E | 11.7 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 14 | 7.3 | - | 30.14 | -0.01 | 80.4 | 81.3 | 73.6 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 9 am | E | 11.7 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 14 | 7.6 | - | 30.14 | +0.00 | 80.4 | 81.3 | 73.9 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 8 am | E | 11.7 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 14 | 8.6 | - | 30.14 | +0.01 | 80.4 | 81.3 | 74.3 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 7 am | E | 9.7 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 13 | 8.0 | - | 30.15 | +0.01 | 79.9 | 81.3 | 73.9 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 6 am | ESE | 7.8 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 13 | 7.8 | - | 30.13 | +0.00 | 79.0 | 81.3 | 73.4 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 5 am | E | 9.7 | 13.6 | 8.5 | 13 | 8.2 | - | 30.13 | -0.00 | 79.5 | 81.3 | 72.5 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 4 am | ESE | 7.8 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 13 | 8.3 | - | 30.13 | -0.01 | 79.0 | 81.3 | 72.3 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 3 am | ESE | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 13 | 7.6 | - | 30.13 | -0.03 | 79.0 | 81.3 | 71.8 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 2 am | ESE | 9.7 | 13.6 | 8.5 | 13 | 7.6 | - | 30.14 | -0.01 | 78.4 | 81.3 | 72.5 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 1 am | E | 13.6 | 17.5 | 7.5 | 13 | 7.2 | - | 30.14 | +0.01 | 78.6 | 81.3 | 72.1 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 14 | 12 am | E | 11.7 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 13 | 8.1 | - | 30.16 | +0.02 | 79.9 | 81.3 | 72.9 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 11 pm | ESE | 7.8 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 14 | 7.3 | - | 30.15 | +0.04 | 79.9 | 81.3 | 70.9 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 10 pm | SE | 9.7 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 11 | 7.4 | - | 30.14 | +0.03 | 78.8 | 81.3 | 71.2 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 9 pm | SSE | 7.8 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 13 | 6.9 | - | 30.14 | +0.02 | 78.4 | 81.3 | 67.1 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 8 pm | E | 3.9 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 14 | 7.7 | - | 30.11 | +0.02 | 78.6 | 81.3 | 73.0 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 7 pm | ESE | 3.9 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 14 | 8.0 | - | 30.11 | -0.00 | 78.6 | 81.3 | 73.0 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 6 pm | W | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 13 | 7.5 | - | 30.11 | +0.02 | 74.8 | 81.3 | 70.7 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 5 pm | E | 1.9 | 3.9 | 8.9 | 13 | 7.9 | - | 30.09 | +0.02 | 80.4 | 81.5 | 70.9 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 4 pm | ESE | 5.8 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 14 | 7.6 | - | 30.10 | +0.02 | 80.2 | 81.3 | 70.0 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 3 pm | SE | 3.9 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 14 | 7.2 | - | 30.09 | -0.00 | 79.9 | 81.3 | 70.5 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 2 pm | SSE | 7.8 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 14 | 7.5 | - | 30.08 | -0.01 | 79.9 | 81.3 | 69.3 | - | - | - | |
| 09 | 13 | 1 pm | SSE | 11.7 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 14 | 7.2 | - | 30.09 | +0.02 | 79.2 | 81.3 | 70.7 | - | - | - |
Fran slammed into the North Carolina coast east of Cape Fear around 8 p.m., Sept. 5, with howling wind gusts up to 120 mph, smashing trees, power lines and coastal homes from the South Carolina border to Surf City, N.C. Its 12-foot storm surge carried away a temporary North Topsail Beach police station and town hall, housed in a double-wide trailer since Hurricane Bertha's rampage across the same area in July. Extensive flooding struck the coast around Wrightsville Beach just up the coast from Cape fear.
Fran's top winds quickly dropped to 100 mph after it slammed into Cape Fear, N.C., but the storm still caused damage on its way north to Wilmington and Raleigh. After submerging beach towns, ripping steeples off churches and snapping trees like sticks in its terrorizing path through the Carolinas, a weakened Hurricane Fran turned into a tropical storm when it winds dropped below 74 mph early Sept. 6, while swirling into Virginia.
Gale force winds between 39 and 73 mph lashed the Chesapeake Bay and heaped water into the Potomac River around the nation's Capitol where it backed up into Georgetown and Old Town, Virginia. Tree limbs crashed to the ground as far north as Maryland and tornadoes briefly spun up in parts of Virginia.
As Tropical Depression Fran chugged into north Virginia, the danger shifted from winds and coastal flooding to torrential rain. Tropical rain bands spiraling into the Appalachian Mountains were lifted by the sloping terrain, enhancing rainfall from North Carolina to Pennsylvania.
Thundering rain of up to 15 inches deluged interior North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia, bringing dangerous river flooding to much of the mid-Atlantic.
At least 34 people were killed by Fran and damage estimates topped $3.2 billion dollars.
Looking back, Fran became a tropical depression on Aug. 24, then briefly weakened before regenerating into a minimal category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson damage potential scale with 75 mph winds. Fran threatened the Lesser Antilles on Aug. 29-30, as a weak hurricane. After the storm's center was relocated by a hurricane hunter plane farther north than thought, Fran missed the islands, weakened to a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph, then regained hurricane strength while traveling toward the Bahamas.
Before landfall, Hurricane Fran was about as large as Hurricane Hugo, with sustained hurricane force winds over 75 mph extending out as much as 140 miles from its center. But its winds weren't nearly as strong, a relief to North Carolina residents. Fran struck as a "major" category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale .
With winds reaching 115 mph, Hurricane Fran has become the third "major" hurricane of the 1996 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Bertha was the first and Edouard was the second. A "major" hurricane has winds exceeding 110 mph.
Hurricane Fran's thrashing of North Carolina only aggravated the state's problems caused by numerous weather disasters in 1996.
But if it does, there will still be complete destruction of beachfront property from the storm surge, and anyone foolish enough to stick around will die. The winds will be high enough to severely damage or destroy any mobile homes or sheds in its path. Most permanent structures can withstand Category 3 winds, although flying debris can break windows and crack brick.
Expect downed power lines.
That's what I think, too.
The storm is certainly further north than it was yesterday, but the more it moves due west, the greater the danger to the Carolinas, IMO.
Bwahahaa...
Since you put it that way....mea culpa.
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