Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[SauronOfMordor]

A really oddball thought but has anyone ever considered using a nuclear weapon (10 MT or so) in an attempt to deflect or even disrupt one of these monsters ?

The storm's eye is 50 miles wide. A multi-megaton nuke would be like shooting a pellet gun at a grizzly -- it might notice, but just get pissed off

[snopercod]

Thanks. We're fairly protected way back up a "holler" in the mountains.

The log home my wife and I built has walls 8" thick, and a basement with poured concrete walls. I built the roof framing sturdy enough to support a slate roof. It's a hip roof, too - proven to be less prone to blowing off in high winds.

The main thing we have to worry about is trees falling down across the power lines. So we have a generator and 40 gallons worth of gasoline, a chainsaw, and a stocked pantry.

The 5-day track seems to be creeping away from the coast somewhat.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Plus Spam actually does taste good in such situations.

I actually like fried SPAM.

Official SPAM Home Page

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

And welcome to FR - I see by your profile that you're relatively new to this forum!

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

I do the web sites for several rural electric utilities in MD and VA and I am emailing them tonight advising they put up hurricane preparedness pages (I'm mocking one up now) Monday & Tuesday - because once the storm hits most people won't be able to read them :)

Keep up the good work!

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

If TPC/NHC is close to accurate...the DC area would be struck by 60-80 mph sustained winds and 100+ mph gusts.

This may be a first - to see the White House windows boarded up! First thing I thought of, anyway, when I realized Isabel may blast through DC!

[Romulus]

You'll be fine; just don't drive into water. And don't let a tree fall on you!

[cajungirl]

Hon, I don't think they think that way up there. We plan gumbos here for hurricane, they take out their hard drives. it is a different world. They may not know about smoking things. Oh well, I am afraid for them.

[Centurion2000]

The storm's eye is 50 miles wide. A multi-megaton nuke would be like shooting a pellet gun at a grizzly -- it might notice, but just get pissed off

A 25 MT weapon has a damaging blast radius greater than the eye of the hurricane. The idea was to hit a side of the eye in the attempt at getting it to deflect it's course.

hmmm.

[Sam Cree]

Well, I for one will be much relieved if it does not go right up the Chesapeake. I've been imagining the destruction.

Although, as a Miamian, I've been feeling kind of relieved the last couple days.

[Sam Cree]

"We're fairly protected way back up a "holler" in the mountains."

I hope landslides and flash floods are not a concern? Camille caused both when she hit the Virginia mountains, back in the 60's. A lot of people got washed away.

[CobaltBlue]

In your situation, with little kids, and not knowing the area very well, I'd plan on staying with my folks, just in case. When we lived in New Orleans, after the kids were born, we'd always go to my dad's house in Baton Rouge whenever a hurricane was threatened. The further away from water you are, the better.

Also, wind is so unpredictable. The wind can turn a garbage can or a loose sign into a projectile and put it through your window. The wind can rip the roof off your house, just peel it off.

Also, after the storm, there can be wild animals wandering around, snakes, dogs that got loose, and looters.

Now, think about you and the kids sitting around in your parents' living room, all safe and sound, with grandma and grandpa happy to see them. That's better, no?

[CobaltBlue]

They may not know about smoking things.

Memo to self, get a couple extra bags of natural charcoal for the smoker.

We already have a lot of cherry wood. It rained so much this year we lost two young cherry trees to root rot.

[patriot5186]

that's ok...as long as the hurricane wasn't named after her!

[rmlew]

BTW, way up the thread, someone mention being named after a hurricane. My wife's family legend has it that she was named after Hurricane Carol.
LOL.
A few years back I visited the whaling museum in Groton, CT. They had some stories and pics. Evidently a seaside restaurant got blown into the Thames river and blown into New London, 5 miles away.

[Orion78]

Why don't we try to destroy tropical cyclones by nuking them:

[Recovering_Democrat]

Excuse me for changing the subject matter a bit here, and I'll keep it short...

Let us use this hurricane as a metaphor for our War on Terror.

That being said, prayers and godspeed go out to all of you who see the storm coming and can prepare for it.

[Big Steve]

I know the feeling. We were without electricity for 14 days ourselves. Charlotte I heard took a beating as well.

[Big Steve]

I live in Charleston County, so I know exactly how you feel. We may have to exchange stories.

[Big Steve]

I echo what you are saying about not being in McClellanville. They caught the powerful northeastern part of the storm.