Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Axenolith]

The best way to utilize this is to construct a separate enclosure OUTSIDE the house and have it wired into your "must have" circuits utilizing a throwover switch that doesn't allow generator use without cutting off contact to the outside world.

You can get those throwover switch packages at Home Despot and I'd suggest having a competent electrician install it.

Good Luck SL! :)

[OWK]

No matter where it hits on the East Coast, because the ground is already satuated with the record rains this spring and summer, there will be trees knocked over everywhere. Ugh.

No kidding...

Not looking forward to this mess at all.

Signed, Soggy in Baltimore.

[cajungirl]

Those tunnels,,Lord, I hate to think about it. but the beach at ocean city and Bethany really worries me, it might just be gone. And downtown Baltimore, the harbor, it could be ugly.

[Gabz]

I said, "I don't think so."

I'm inclined to agree with you.

Hubby is still laughing - he sees no way this brokerage firm is going to be able to move this week, even if there are not massive evacuations and states of emergency declared on the Peninsula. He and the rest of the techs will probably being working 24/7 just restarting network systems that are already up and running - forget about creating new ones!!!

[Atchafalaya]

If it comes your way, best stay sober; this is nature at it's worst. It can kill you and yours if you are not prepared or out of the area. Take good care!

[OWK]

but the beach at ocean city and Bethany really worries me...

My daughter works in OC (md)... Goes to school at Salisbury University (25 miles inland). I may ask her to come home Wednesday.

[cajungirl]

Yeah, I would get her home. But don't wait too late,,if she has to drive over the Bay Bridge right before a hurricane, it could be bad. I hate it when kids are in something like this,,,makes me remember the hurricane parties we had in my youth and people got killed at one of those in Biloxi I do believe. My kids are in Baltimore and they are getting a hurricane and I am in Louisiana dry and safe,,doesn't that seem weird. It should be the other way around.

[Gabz]

Gotsta do what ya gotsta do!!!!!!!!

I'm not looking forward to it - but such is life.

[Atchafalaya]

Ah Allison, dumped a ton over here in Baton Rouge. The next year the Corp revaluated the area and now I have to pay flood insurance. Pissed me off as I didn't come close to feet wet, and if Allison didn't do it then it would take a Moses rain. Money to the gov. to help pay others claims.
Damn!

[pgkdan]

Yeah, now that would suck! <p.LOL!! Yeah! Actually, they'd sold the place a few years before, but it was still a sad shock to see that place go. I love Sandbridge.

[OWK]

I'm in the suburbs.. North of Baltimore..

(I think she'll be OK if she comes home Wednesday... but she'd be OK at Salisbury too... they're already talking about opening the school builings as shelters.)

[U S Army EOD]

No that was in Bay St. Louis in the Richcaleu (sp) appartments. Everyone in the party died except one person. She witnessed a 12 year old boy being washed out a second story window before the place fell apart.

[TexasCowboy]

"You mean to say you're working on Mable 4."

No, I've still got the old original.
I just have to be careful of her pressure as she gets older....

[TexasCowboy]

"makes me remember the hurricane parties we had in my youth "

Yeah, cg, but in those days you were invincible.........or thought you were.
I remember those parties in South Louisiana very well.
I don't know how we survived.

[Atchafalaya]

155-160 gusting to 190. Hmm, doesn't leave much room for strengthening. Camille had gusts over 200 so there is some wiggle room there. Heat is the key.

[agrace]

Thank you. :) Of course it's unlikely it will hit so far north but today we got bottled water, juice, batteries and extra cat food just in case. My husband laughs at me because I am such a fan of big weather - give me a nor'easter and the weather channel will be on all day. But he obliged me and got the supplies. Although he laughed again when I told him to put the patio furniture in the garage! I told him he wouldn't be laughing if one of those chairs went through our neighbor's window.

[Axenolith]

Man, my Dads parents live 2 miles from Chicks Beach at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. They'd better be bugging out tomorrow if needs come because getting through the Hampton Tunnel with X00,000 people at the same time will NOT be a party for old folks...

[U S Army EOD]

I think the wind indicator at the Gulfport airport broke at 238 mph during Camille.

[Gabz]

SNIFF! Goodbye Virginia Beach!

Good bye DelMarVa Penninsula.