Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[U S Army EOD]

That area will be faced with massive power outages because of the trees getting knocked down on lines. I have a feeling that the damage is going to be extremely servere and widespread that it will take a long time to recover.

The areas where Andrew hit, never recovered since so much of the infrastructure was destroyed. Very few people rebuilt. This is going to be a rough one and I wish you guys the best.

I am sure the rest of the country will pitch in to help. I just hope the Democrats don't try to make some political gain out of this. They are shameless and low life enough to try.

[Heatseeker]

I do the web sites for several rural electric utilities in MD and VA and I am emailing them tonight advising they put up hurricane preparedness pages (I'm mocking one up now) Monday & Tuesday - because once the storm hits most people won't be able to read them :)

[U S Army EOD]

Make sure and put an advisory in telling people who hook up generators MUST isolate the power from the mainline so where won't be any back feed into the lines that could interfere with repairs. Advise them all to use extention chords into appliances and make sure nothing is plugged into the house.

[Atchafalaya]

I know, this storm is the real deal; I don't see a major weakening (not that I'm an expert; hell the experts aren't sure why Lilly collapsed just before hitting south of Abbeville). If it stays around 150-160 mph sustained at landfall it will be catestrophic; 130-140 devastating. Bottom line the words and effects are interchangeable. Those in the projected path should get out 48 hrs. prior.

[11th_VA]

We just got hit with some bad thunderstorms about two weeks ago that left parts of Chevy CHase, Takoma Park, and Bethesad Maryland without power for days. Those people don't like to cut their trees, then they complain when the lights go out - can't have it both ways.

BTW - You probably spent time in Indian Head ???

[11th_VA]

Lights out - didn't realize it's so late ... keep you all posted during the storm

[Heatseeker]

Thanks for the good advie - will do! One of my folks already has a generator safety page - www.choptank.coop/safengwtr/gensafety.html - but it probably needs a tune-up.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

Make sure and put an advisory in telling people who hook up generators MUST isolate the power from the mainline so where won't be any back feed into the lines that could interfere with repairs. Advise them all to use extention chords into appliances and make sure nothing is plugged into the house.

This may seem like a no-brainer, but it has happened before, post that people should not try to run their generators within the home, unless they want to die from carbon menoxide poisoning.

[FrustratedCitizen]

There's one key thing to note with the incoming Isabel.

It will not have time to weaken all that much on its way into Maryland/Northern Virginia/Pennsylvania. By the time it's hitting Hatteras/VA Beach and heading into the Chesapeake it will be galloping NNW at 20-25 mph...meaning it will spend only 12 hours or so over just the fringes of land before slamming into lower southern Maryland (if that forecast track is accurate).

If TPC/NHC is close to accurate...the DC area would be struck by 60-80 mph sustained winds and 100+ mph gusts...6-10 or 12 inches of rain in local areas with a good 5 inch general swath for everyone...let's not forget Tropical Storm Henri just showed us what the likely path of Isabel will be...Henri tracked right up the Chesapeake...just like this is now projected to do...I believe that is where it's going.

Let's also not forget that folks up and down the east have been dealing with above normal percipitation CONTINUOUSLY since LAST AUGUST...meaning the reserviors and water tables can't take much more of this abuse...and flooding will be widespread and abundant.

This has the potential to top hurricane Floyd in total damage costs and shine as the costliest hurricane EVER to hit the US.

Prepare now...buy your emergency supplies...get your car serrviced, and make sure its gas tank is full constantly. Put first aide kits everywhere you're likely to be (house, car) and non-parishable food in the trunk just in case you're stuck on the road for a day trying to evacuate.

Evacuate BEFORE they tell you to...don't wait for the official word...get out as soon as hurricane warnings are issued...do not fool around with this system...and do not hesitate to leave. I can't stress enough how bad this could possibly be for the DC chapter.

[Orion78]

HURRICANE ISABEL
Blue Line= Mean Sea Level Pressure
Grey Line= Sea Surface Temperature
Red Line= Maximum Sustained Wind Speed

[Heatseeker]

Evacuate BEFORE they tell you to...don't wait for the official word...get out as soon as hurricane warnings are issued...do not fool around with this system...and do not hesitate to leave. I can't stress enough how bad this could possibly be for the DC chapter.

Amen. I've said it before but it bears repeating: if you are on the Delmarva Peninsula and want/need to evacuate, DO IT SOON. They will close the bridges and trap you if you wait.

[Atchafalaya]

True, I keep thanking the Good Lord everytime we get to jump over the snake. We will roll double two's someday and it won't be pretty. All of you that ever stood on Bourbon St. at the Royale Orleans Hotel screaming "show me your tits" look up on the wall 20-25ft in your minds eye and see how much water is projected. Lac Bourbon.

[Ryzaroo]

Well we are in Annapolis...ground level...about 1/2 a mile from the Bay....JUST moved here....a house...not an apartment....this is really starting to scare me since my husband works almost everyday and long hours. What do you advise we do here in Annapolis? Nothing? Something? What?

[Atchafalaya]

Well if this storm comes your way you will be without power for days; the tree problem will be taken care of. Any cherry wood down save to use to smoke stuff on the pit.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

I'd be making hotel reservations at some place very far inland right now. And get outta town by Tuesday at the latest. This looks like it's going right up the Chesapeake.

[Sam Cree]

If Isabel follows today's predicted path, which it may or may not, you may be experiencing a hurricane as early as Wednesday. So start preparing and assessing right now, just in case.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

Any cherry wood down save to use to smoke stuff on the pit.

Now that's a Cajun! ;^)

[Heatseeker]

Watch the storm track closely. If it veers even slightly eaastward, so as to skirt up the coast, you should be OK though local flooding due to rainfall is a possibility.

On the other hand, if it tracks up the Bay, and especially if it stays anywhere near a Category 4/5 (it'll probably weaken at least a little) you should be prepared to relocate to a shelter or, if you can and have time, to someplace (a friend's or relative's) out of the storm's path. Here are some resources:

Anne Arundel County Emergency Management Bureau
P.O. Box 276 (8501 Veteran's Highway)
Millersville, MD 21108
James Weed, Director, 410-222-8040
fdweed67@mail.aacounty.org

http://www.co.anne-arundel.md.us/resources/emergency_prepare_guide.pdf

http://www.mfri.org/newlinks/mdfs.html

Tune to local radio stations who will probably be first to put out shelter locations. If the path to the one you choose has lots of overhanging trees, power lines, etc., consider relocating early. Drive the route to check it out if you're out sure.

Other than that, stock up on essentials (do it tomorrow, don't wait or the store shelves will be bare).

I'm 48 and if the predictions are accurate, this will be BY FAR the worst storm I've ever experienced.

[Sam Cree]

You need to know if your place can be affected by storm surge (you can't stay there during a hurricane if the answer is yes), what protection you have for the house from strong winds (shutters + something to keep the door from blowing in), what supplies you have or need, and whether you may need to evacuate.

If you can stay, is there an interior "safe" room? If you stay, and sustain a hit, you may need food and water for several days or a week or longer, it can take awhile before that kind of stuff becomes available again.

I think tops is making sure the kids are safe, so do whatever you must to ensure that, even if it means getting out. And if you get out, IMO, don't wait too long.

[Ryzaroo]

Thanks:)

This will be by far the worst I have ever encountered if it hits up the Bay ( I am 29)...have 2 small kids ( under age 6) and a husband who works everyday long hours.

I was more worried about Mother in Law ( in Cape May) but now I am worried about us.

I plan on hitting the store tomorrow.

If it really looks bad I think I will pack house and head to Emmittsburg- my parents are there.....

However I am still worried about my sister who is on the Southern MD coast ( Mechanicsburg) and a close friend in Ellicott City ( historic- right on the Patapsco).

Hoping this misses us...

Thanks