Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

NWS ^

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27 Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003 ...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel is a category five hurricane... at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb...27.17 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico over the next several days. Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST. Forecaster Beven

[Swanks]

The eye of Isabel will hit North Myrtle Beach early enough in the week to trash my whole vacation.

Stop by Sunset Beach for me.

[My Favorite Headache]

I do a dead on impression of Dave Schwartz. Come to a Florida Freeper event and I will do it for you.

[kayak]

Floyd was the one with the horrendous floods.

NC experienced 5 hurricanes within 3 years ..... Bertha and Fran (just weeks apart), Bonnie, Floyd ... and there was another one that I think just gave a glancing blow to the Outer Banks.

We have family and friends in eastern NC and have seen the damage from most of those storms .... but Floyd was the most devastating. You just cannot imagine how awful it was. Pictures simply could not convey the extent of the damage.

[My Favorite Headache]

LMAO...book it!

[oceanview]

just watching some coverage on various stations. I think Florida is in the clear. This thing is going to move up the east coast, I can sense it in what some of the meteorologists were hinting it (but not saying, yet). I hope it stays offshore, not looking good for Long Island right now. The way Steve Lyons from the weather channel penciled in that trough mnoving towards the east coast, it looks like it could just pick this thing up and pull it north, still uncertain how far offshore it will be when that happens.

My flood insurance is paid up, I may make some hotel reservations in western jersey for late next week.....

[Ditter]

If it doesn't turn north it could whack a lot more than just Florida. It could clip So. Florida & be into the Gulf where it could re-intensify do a lot more damage. I am hoping for a north & east turn.

[RightWinger]

We are watching Isabel closely, here in the Charleston area.

[PatrickHenry]

You'd be on in half a day, with a generator and a satellite connection

If I had a generator, which I don't, I'd probably devote it to providing some air conditioning. Florida is horribly hot this time of year. On the other hand, if the choice is being comfortable or freeping, I'm not sure how I'd handle it.

[U S Army EOD]

Lets hope it just peters out. The East Coast could stand a Cat 5 better than the Gulf because there is some place for the water and surge to go. Lets hope we don't have another Camile or the Galvaston Hurricane. Andrew caused a lot of property damage but the other two were people killers. If you have to ride one out the best place is anchored in a protected area with good ground tackle on a boat. You don't have to sweat the flooding. I went through three of them like that.

[general_re]

Oh, yeah? Well I hope it clips South Florida and plants itself right over your house for the next three weeks...

:^)

[D. Brian Carter]

It ain't that hot, actually has been downright nice the past couple of weeks. I'm up for a run before the sun rises and it's quite comfortable.

[Think free or die]

Bertha and Floyd dumped a lot of water on us here outside of Philadelphia, too. We lost trees to both of those storms, as well as tropical storm Allison. I'm not liking the looks of Isabel. All it takes is heavy soaking rains and wind to knock down our tulip poplars. They're not well rooted and don't do well in tropical storms.

[general_re]

Florida is horribly hot this time of year.

Ah, well - then the gentle cooling showers of Isabel sound like just the solution ;)

Hopefully it'll turn north and then back out to sea, which is still within the realm of possibility. I left Miami about a week ahead of Andrew, and I'm not anxious to find out what I missed...

[nwctwx]

Lets hope it just peters out. The East Coast could stand a Cat 5 better than the Gulf because there is some place for the water and surge to go. Lets hope we don't have another Camile or the Galvaston Hurricane. Andrew caused a lot of property damage but the other two were people killers. If you have to ride one out the best place is anchored in a protected area with good ground tackle on a boat. You don't have to sweat the flooding. I went through three of them like that.

I still think it is highly doubtful that Isabel would hit the coast anywhere near the intensity it is now... If history is a lesson, it will still likely miss the east coast entirely. It would now appear that any landfall would be confined to NC or areas north.

[oceanview]

post #32 here is a good summary of the possibilities:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/981212/posts?page=32#32

right now, I think #2 is the most prevalent from the weather channel coverage I have seen, they seem to be hinting that florida is in the clear.

[oceanview]

post #32 here is a good summary of the possibilities:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/981212/posts?page=32#32

right now, I think #2 is the most prevalent from the weather channel coverage I have seen, they seem to be hinting that florida is in the clear.

[aristeides]

Thanks for the track of Andrew. Looks rather similar so far.

[U S Army EOD]

I hope it misses everything. You don't know the true meaning of fear until you go through one.

[dakine]

Topsail Island bump...

[kayak]

I'll see you and raise you a Wrightsville Beach and a Carolina Beach bump .... :-)